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NFL Prop Bets | MNF Vikings vs Bears | Sep 8 2025

Caleb Williams Player Prop Bet: Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-115) vs. Vikings

In 2024, Caleb Williams was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, taking 68 sacks across 17 games. His mobility was a necessity, as he scrambled or ran on designed plays frequently, finishing with 489 rushing yards on 81 attempts (6.0 yards per carry). Notably, Williams had 4+ carries in 14 of 19 games and averaged 4.8 per for the season, including 10 carries in each of his two matchups against the Vikings last season. These games highlight his tendency to run when pressured by Minnesotaโ€™s defense, which led the NFL in quarterback pressures in 2024.

Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Receptions (-110) vs. Bears

In 2024, Aaron Jones recorded 51 receptions on 67 targets over 17 games, averaging 3.0 receptions per game with the Vikings. He surpassed 2.5 receptions in 12 of 17 games, showcasing his reliability as a pass-catching back. Facing the Bears in 2024, Jones had 4 receptions for 46 yards in Week 12 and 3 receptions for 28 yards in Week 14, clearing the 2.5 mark in both games. With McCarthy, a rookie, starting under center, expect head coach Kevin Oโ€™Connell to lean on short, safe check-downs to Jones to ease the quarterback into the game. Minnesotaโ€™s offense in 2024 ranked 7th in passing yards (4,123), and Jones was a key outlet, with a 7.6% target share in the passing game.

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Minnesota Vikings Under 9.5 wins | 2025-26 | Futures Bet

Minnesota Vikings Wins

ASAwins NFL projections UNDER 9.5 WINS (-125) Minnesota Vikings

The Vikingsโ€™ 2024 season (14-3) was an outlier, driven by luck in close games (8-1 SU in one-score games) and Sam Darnoldโ€™s career-best performance. The Minnesota Vikingsโ€™ win total for the 2025-26 NFL season is set at 9.5, with the under at -125 odds (54.5% implied probability).

This bet assumes the Vikings will win 9 or fewer games, a reasonable prediction given key factors. After a 14-3 record in 2024, which exceeded expected wins by 2.5 games, historical trends suggest regression (average drop of 5.33 wins for similar teams).

The Vikings face the NFLโ€™s 5th-hardest schedule, with 11 games against 2024 winning teams, including five with 12+ wins, and international games in Dublin and London.

Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, who hasnโ€™t taken a regular season snap under center, missed the entire 2024 season due to injury. Granted, has a strong supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson) and an elite defense (2nd in DVOA), but can he fill Darnoldโ€™s shoes? McCarthy will have a tough time duplicating Darnoldโ€™s statistics from last season as he finished 5th in total passing yards, had a 66.2% completion percentage with 35 TDโ€™s to 12 INTโ€™s and a QBR of 102.5.

Minnesota was 19th in rushing yards per game a season ago so itโ€™s not like they can lean on Aaron Jones and the running game if McCarthy struggles.

While Kevin Oโ€™Connellโ€™s coaching and QB development is some of the best in the NFL, the tough schedule and potential growing pains for McCarthy make the under 9.5 wins an attractive wager at -125. We are projecting a 9-win season at most for the Vikings.

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NBA free bet today | Cavs vs Heat | Game 3 April 26th

NBA free bet today: ASA play on Miami Heat +5.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 1pm ET

We are going to support the Heat plus the points in this one as we trust Miami head coach Spolestra to dial up a gameplan to get a home win in Game 3.

Miami played much better in the 2nd half of their last game, outscoring the Cavs 61-53 over the final 2 quarters of Game 2. The Heat won the rebound battle 38-34 and shot well at 52%.

The Cavs were dialed in from Deep by hitting 22-45 from beyond the Arc, but donโ€™t expect shots to fall as easily on the road in Miami.

The Heat were home underdogs just 15 times this season and a profitable 9-6 ATS in those games with an average plus/minus of -3.7ppg (good enough for a cover here).

Cleveland was very good as a road chalk this season at 20-14 ATS but they are just 2-5 ATS in that role their last seven. Miami shoots it much better at home than they do on the road with the 4th best 3PT% on their home court in the NBA.

The Cavs road 3PT% defense ranks 18th. If the Heat are going to win a game in this series it could be this one. Regardless, we expect a close game and will grab the points.

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WNBA predictions | 2025 Draft Breakdown | Rookie of the Year bets

wnbarookieofyear

ASA breaks down the 2025 WNBA draft and offers Rookie of the Year Longshots

We have a quick breakdown of the first-round draft in the WNBA from Tuesday night as we prepare for our second season of handicapping womenโ€™s professional basketball. Last season we destroyed the Books with a +40-Net Unit season in the WNBA and we look forward to doing it again in 2025. The preseason starts May 2nd with the regular season tipping off on Friday, May 16th. Watch for available WNBA packages from ASA in the coming weeks.

+40-Net Units won
18-5 O/U record
30-13 Hot streak

Be sure to pay attention to our WNBA Rookie of the Year predictions below with a +3000 and a +8000 longshots who we like to cash the ROY ticket.

The 2025 WNBA Draft took place on April 14, 2025, at The Shed at Hudson Yards in New York City, marking the 29th draft in league history. It was a pivotal event for the league, introducing new talent to a 44-game season, the longest everโ€”and welcoming the expansion team, the Golden State Valkyries. The draft featured 12 first-round picks, as the Las Vegas Acesโ€™ selection was rescinded due to violations involving impermissible player benefits. ESPN is trying desperately to portray Paige Buechers as the next Kaitlyn Clark but do not be fooled by the talking-heads and their rhetoric. Buechers is going to be a great addition to the Wings, but sheโ€™s not on Clarks level. Below is a breakdown of the first-round players and the teams that drafted them, based on available information.

#1 Paige Bueckers โ€“ Dallas Wings

Position: Point Guard

College: UConn

Overview: The consensus top pick, Bueckers was fresh off leading UConn to a national championship. A versatile guard with elite scoring (19.8 PPG career average), playmaking (4.6 APG), and shooting (42.3% from three), sheโ€™s poised to be a franchise cornerstone alongside Arike Ogunbowale. Her accolades include the Wooden Award, Naismith Award, and three Big East Player of the Year honors.

#2 Dominique Malonga โ€“ Seattle Storm

Position: Center

Club/Country: ASVEL Fรฉminin/France

Overview: A 19-year-old French phenom, Malonga brings size (6โ€™6โ€) and upside. Averaging 15.4 points and 10.3 rebounds in Franceโ€™s top league, she also competed in the 2024 Olympics. Her selection adds depth to Seattleโ€™s frontcourt, where she can develop under veterans like Ezi Magbegor.

#3 Sonia Citron โ€“ Washington Mystics

Position: Guard

College: Notre Dame

Overview: Citron, a First-Team All-ACC selection, offers defensive versatility and spot-up shooting (14.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG). Her steady, high-IQ play makes her a fit for the rebuilding Mystics, who hold multiple first-round picks.

#4 Kiki Iriafen โ€“ Washington Mystics

Position: Power Forward

College: USC

Overview: Iriafenโ€™s athleticism and face-up game (reliable finisher around the basket) make her a strong addition. While her 3-point shooting needs growth, her scoring and rebounding prowess suit Washingtonโ€™s need for frontcourt talent.

#5 Justฤ— Jocytฤ— โ€“ Golden State Valkyries

Position: Forward

Club/Country: ASVEL Lyon/Lithuania

Overview: The Valkyries, in their inaugural draft, selected the 19-year-old Lithuanian for her playmaking and 6โ€™2โ€ frame. Playing professionally in France, Jocytฤ— brings international experience and versatility to an expansion roster building from scratch.

#6 Georgia Amoore โ€“ Washington Mystics

Position: Point Guard

College: Kentucky

Overview: Amoore, known for her SEC assists leadership, averaged 14.1 points and 7.3 assists. Her Australian flair and court vision give the Mystics a dynamic backcourt option, complementing their earlier picks.

#7 Aneesah Morrow โ€“ Connecticut Sun

Position: Forward

College: LSU

Overview: Morrow led the nation in rebounding (13.5 RPG) and double-doubles (29) at LSU. Her 30-point, 19-rebound Sweet 16 performance showcased her scoring and defensive skills, making her a high-upside pick for the rebuilding Sun.

**ROOKIE OF THE YEAR +3000** Aneesah Morrow, selected seventh overall by the Connecticut Sun in the 2025 WNBA Draft, is a strong contender for Rookie of the Year at +3000 odds due to her elite production and fit with a rebuilding team. Coming off an LSU career where she led the nation in rebounding (13.5 RPG) and double-doubles (29), Morrowโ€™s relentless scoring (16.4 PPG) and defensive tenacity make her a standout. Her 30-point, 19-rebound Sweet 16 performance showcased her ability to dominate. Joining a Sun squad looking to replace departed veterans, Morrow should see significant minutes alongside Alyssa Thomas, whose playmaking (7.9 APG last season) will create easy scoring chances for Morrow inside. With Connecticutโ€™s defensive focus drawing attention to Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, Morrowโ€™s rebounding prowess and efficient finishing (51.8% FG at LSU) position her to rack up stats and make an immediate impact, offering excellent value for the rookie award.

#8 Saniya Rivers โ€“ Connecticut Sun

Position: Guard/Forward

College: NC State

Overview: A versatile wing, Rivers (11.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.8 APG) helped NC State reach the Final Four. Her defensive potential and all-around game align with Connecticutโ€™s need for multi-faceted players.

#9 Sarah Ashlee Barker โ€“ Los Angeles Sparks

Position: Guard

College: Alabama

Overview: Barker, an All-SEC First-Team pick, averaged 18.2 points and set Alabamaโ€™s single-game scoring record (45 points). Her scoring versatility fills the Sparksโ€™ need for perimeter firepower.

**ROOKIE OF THE YEAR +8000** Sarah Ashlee Barker, drafted ninth overall by the Los Angeles Sparks in the 2025 WNBA Draft, is poised to make a significant impact as a rookie and could be a dark-horse candidate for Rookie of the Year at +8000 odds. Joining a Sparks team that struggled with an 8-32 record last season, Barker will likely see ample playing time on a roster craving offensive firepower. Paired with veteran Kelsey Plum, acquired from Las Vegas, and alongside last yearโ€™s rookie Cameron Brink (expected back from injury by June), Barker steps into a situation ripe for opportunity. Her collegiate stats at Alabamaโ€”18.2 points per game on 51% shooting, 37.5% from three, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assistsโ€”highlight her versatility as a 6โ€™0โ€ guard. Barkerโ€™s 45-point game as a senior underscores her scoring ceiling. With opponents likely keying in on DeWanna Hamby (17.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.7 SPG), Barker should find open looks, especially from deep, where her efficiency shines. Her ability to score, facilitate, and rebound, combined with the Sparksโ€™ need for immediate contributors, positions her to outperform expectations and potentially claim Rookie of the Year honors in a wide-open race.

#10 Ajลกa Sivka โ€“ Chicago Sky

Position: Power Forward

Club/Country: Tarbes Gespe Bigorre/Slovenia

Overview: The 19-year-old Slovenian brings size (6โ€™3โ€) and shooting. A draft-and-stash candidate, Sivkaโ€™s MVP performance at the 2023 U18 European Championship highlights her potential for Chicagoโ€™s future.

#11 Hailey Van Lith โ€“ Chicago Sky

Position: Guard

College: TCU

Overview: The Big 12 Player of the Year (17.9 PPG, 5.4 APG) led TCU to the Elite Eight. Reuniting with LSU teammate Angel Reese, Van Lithโ€™s playmaking and grit suit Chicago, where sheโ€™ll learn from Courtney Vandersloot.

#12 Aziaha James โ€“ Dallas Wings

Position: Guard

College: NC State

Overview: James, an explosive scorer (17.9 PPG), hit 75+ threes in her last two seasons. Her perimeter scoring adds depth to Dallasโ€™ backcourt, complementing Bueckers.

Notes:

The Mystics (three picks) and Sun and Wings (two each) maximized their first-round hauls, reflecting active roster-building.

The draft showcased a mix of college stars (Bueckers, Van Lith) and international talent (Malonga, Jocytฤ—, Sivka), highlighting the WNBAโ€™s global reach.

No official combine exists, but the Lilly Womenโ€™s College All-Star Combine during the NCAA Final Four weekend helped scouts evaluate prospects.

This draft sets the stage for a competitive 2025 season, with rookies like Bueckers and Malonga expected to make immediate impacts, but donโ€™t be shocked if neither win the Rookie of the Year award.

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Masters Betting Preview | 2025 | April 10th

MASTERSPREVIEW2025

2025 Masters Betting Preview by ASA

The 2025 Masters Tournament, set to tee off on Thursday, April 10 at Augusta National Golf Club, promises to deliver another thrilling chapter in golfโ€™s most prestigious event. With a star-studded field, a $20 million purse, and the coveted green jacket on the line, bettors have plenty of options to consider. From dominant favorites to intriguing longshots, hereโ€™s a comprehensive betting preview, including current odds for the top 10 players and a few longshot predictions.

Current Odds for the Top 10 Players

As of April 9, 2025, the betting odds reflect a mix of recent form, Augusta history, and star power. Here are the top 10 favorites according to the latest odds (sourced from various sportsbooks like FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM):

  1. Scottie Scheffler (+400)
    The world No. 1 and defending champion is the clear favorite. Schefflerโ€™s two Masters wins (2022, 2024) and his relentless consistency this season make him a formidable force. However, his putting struggles (79th in one-putt percentage, 86th in strokes gained: putting) could open the door for others if he falters on Augustaโ€™s slick greens.
  2. Rory McIlroy (+650)
    McIlroyโ€™s quest for the career Grand Slam continues, bolstered by wins at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and The Players Championship in 2025. Despite his strong form, his Augusta record remains inconsistent, with two missed cuts in the last four years and a T22 in 2024, making his short odds a risky proposition.
  3. Jon Rahm (+1400)
    The 2023 Masters champion has been solid on the LIV Golf circuit, but his move away from the PGA Tour introduces some uncertainty about his preparation. At 14-1, heโ€™s a value play for those who trust his major pedigree and Augusta affinity.
  4. Ludvig ร…berg (+1600)
    The young Swede, now a proven winner on both the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, showed his mettle with a runner-up finish at the 2024 Masters. His length off the tee and precision make him a trendy pick at 16-1.
  5. Collin Morikawa (+1600)
    Morikawaโ€™s odds have tightened thanks to his elite ball-striking and a strong 2025 season. His T3 finish at the 2024 Masters suggests heโ€™s figuring out Augusta, making him a compelling option at this price.
  6. Xander Schauffele (+1800)
    Schauffeleโ€™s consistency in majors (heโ€™s rarely outside the top 20) and his length off the tee suit Augusta well. Heโ€™s yet to break through for a green jacket, but 18-1 feels like fair value for a player of his caliber.
  7. Bryson DeChambeau (+2000)
    The LIV Golf starโ€™s T6 finish in 2024 proved he can tame Augusta despite his unconventional approach. At 20-1, heโ€™s a polarizing but intriguing bet, especially if his short game holds up.
  8. Justin Thomas (+2200)
    Thomas brings major championship experience (two PGA titles) and a solid Masters track record (three top-12 finishes in his last six starts). His early 2025 form, including runner-up finishes at The American Express and Valspar Championship, supports his 22-1 odds.
  9. Joaquin Niemann (+2800)
    The LIV Golf standout has been a betting liability for sportsbooks (per X posts), with his length and approach play tailor-made for Augusta. At 28-1, heโ€™s a dark horse with upside.
  10. Hideki Matsuyama (+2800)
    The 2021 Masters winner remains a steady contender at Augusta, with his precise iron play and short game. His 28-1 odds reflect a solid but unspectacular 2025, though his history here keeps him in the conversation.

Who are a few Longshots to consider?

Case for Tommy Fleetwood at +4000

Tommy Fleetwood at +4000 is a bet worth serious consideration, supported by his Augusta track record, recent form, and expert endorsements. Hereโ€™s why heโ€™s a smart play:

  • Masters History: Fleetwood is entering his ninth Masters appearance with an impressive resume. Heโ€™s made the cut in seven of eight starts, including four top-20 finishes. His standout performance came last year with a T3 finishโ€”his best at Augustaโ€”proving he can contend on Sunday. Over the last eight years, heโ€™s also notched seven top-5 finishes in majors, showcasing his big-stage pedigree.
  • Skill Set: Fleetwoodโ€™s game aligns beautifully with Augustaโ€™s demands. His elite iron play (above-average strokes gained: approach) and accuracy off the tee give him an edge on a course that punishes wayward shots. While his putting can be inconsistent, his T3 in 2024 suggests heโ€™s capable of figuring out Augustaโ€™s tricky greens. His around-the-green play is also above average, a critical factor at a venue where scrambling often separates contenders from pretenders.
  • Recent Form: Though his T62 at the Valero Texas Open last weekend was a stumble (capped by an 81 on Sunday), itโ€™s an outlier. Fleetwood finished 16th or better in five of his first six starts this season, including a T5 at The Players Championship. This consistency indicates heโ€™s in form heading into Masters week, with the Valero result likely a blip rather than a trend.
  • Expert Backing: Renowned coach Butch Harmon recently tipped Fleetwood to win the Masters and emerge as golfโ€™s next global superstar (per a Mirror Sport exclusive on X). Harmonโ€™s endorsement carries weight, given his track record with major champions like Tiger Woods. Posts on X also highlight Fleetwood as a popular longshot, with betting previews noting his +4000 odds as offering value compared to sharper lines (e.g., Pinnacleโ€™s +3627).
  • Betting Value: At 40-1, Fleetwood sits in a sweet spotโ€”long enough to offer a significant return but short enough to reflect his realistic chances. SportsLineโ€™s model, which has nailed 13 majors, pegs him at 35-1 on FanDuel and projects value, while X posts show him as a top-5 liability for some books, suggesting sharp money is on him.

Fleetwood has yet to win a major, but his near-misses (including a runner-up at the 2018 U.S. Open) and his upward trajectory at Augusta make him a prime candidate to break through. A $10 bet at +4000 would return $400, and his odds for a top-10 finish (likely around +400 to +500) could be a safer hedge. If he can replicate his 2024 Masters performance and capitalize on a weak Sunday from the favorites, Fleetwood could don the green jacket on April 13.

Another consideration with longer odds: Corey Conners (+6000)

For those seeking a big payout, Corey Conners at +6000 stands out as a viable longshot. The Canadian has a stellar Masters record, with top-10 finishes in three of his last five appearances (T6 in 2022, T10 in 2021, T10 in 2020). His elite ball-strikingโ€”consistently ranking among the PGA Tourโ€™s best in strokes gained: approachโ€”suits Augustaโ€™s demanding layout. While his putting can be a liability, Conners has shown he can get hot on these greens, as evidenced by his past performances. His 2025 season has been quietly strong, with multiple top-20 finishes, and at 75-1, he offers tremendous value for a top-10 bet or an outright sprinkle. If he can avoid a cold putter, Conners could shock the golfing world and become one of the longest longshot winners in Masters history.

Final Thoughts

The 2025 Masters is shaping up as a battle between proven champions like Scheffler and McIlroy and a hungry chasing pack. Schefflerโ€™s favoritism is justified, but his putting woes and short odds make him a fade for some bettors. McIlroyโ€™s Grand Slam narrative is compelling, yet his Augusta struggles temper enthusiasm. For value, Thomas (+2200) and Niemann (+2800) stand out among the mid-tier, while Conners (+6000) is the longshot to watch. However, Tommy Fleetwood at +4000 combines form, course fit, and narrative into one of the best bets on the board. Whether youโ€™re chasing a big payout or playing it safe with a top-10 wager, this yearโ€™s Masters offers something for every golf betting enthusiast.

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