Tag: NFL bets

Posted on by

NFL predictions | 1/28/24 | Player Props and Free bet

ASA player props and free bet January 28th

BALTIMORE RAVENS – LAMAR JACKSON OVER 10.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Jackson’s rushing total would be an easy write up but last week his rushing total was 55.5. This is easily the highest rushing total he’s had in the last ten games…so no value whatsoever.  We like Over his attempts of 10.5 instead. Jackson has averaged 9.35 rushing attempts per game and ran it 11 times last week against a good Texans rush defense. Jackson has rushed it 11 or more times in 4 of the last six games he’s played in. Last week Buffalo Bills QB Allen ran it 12 times against this Chiefs defense. With Kansas City in man coverage defensively that gives Jackson more opportunities to run with the DB’s backs to the line of scrimmage.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – BROCK PURDY OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS

Purdy has been under 60% completion rate 3 times this season. Once last week in rainy conditions vs. Green Bay and once each vs. Cleveland and Baltimore who both rank top 5 in opposing QB’s complete percentage. Purdy now faces a Lions defense that is 30th in passing yards per attempt and 31st in yards per completion.

The Lions Pass defense in the last 5 games has been atrocious. Here is what the last 5 oppossing QB’s have done to them. .

N Mullens 411 (261)

D Prescott 345 (ssn ave 265)

N Mullens 396 (261)

M Stafford 367 (ssn ave 264)

B Mayfield 349 *and how many big plays did he miss?* (ssn ave 238)

Purdy averaged 266.5PYPG this season and threw for over 272 8 times this season.

DETROIT LIONS JARED GOFF – OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS

He’s thrown for over this number in 6 straight, and 12 times this season overall. He averages 270.5PYPG. San Francisco is ‘average’ or below in pass defense. They allow 213.4PYPG (14th), allow 23.9 completions per game (30th) and are 21st in completion % against. If the Lions fall behind, they will abandon the running game and throw it on every down. Detroit was 10th in passing attempts per game this season, 2nd in passing yards per game, 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion.

FREE BET DETROIT LIONS OVER TEAM TOTAL 20.5

The Lions averaged 27.2PPG on the season which was 5th most in the league. On the road they put up 24.1PPG. Detroit was 9th in Yards Per Point scored as it took them just 14.4 yards gained for every 1-point scored. The Lions averaged 5.9 yards per play and have an offense capable of explosive plays. They scored 20 or more points in 16 of nineteen games this season.

ON SALE PACKAGES TODAY

RECENT FREE BETS

Posted on by

NFL FREE BET | GIANTS vs SAINTS prediction | December 17th

POINT TRAIN New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints – 1PM ET

WAGER – GIANTS +5.5

  • Tommy DeVito and the Giants find themselves in a 3-game winning streak and fresh off a convincing win over a Packers team that was surging up the standings.
  • A newfound ground game has made life much easier for DeVito and the passing game which makes their offense that much tougher to defend. NY is averaging 5.0-Yards Per Rush in their last three games, up from their season average of 4.1.
  • DeVito has been efficient and a game manager. In 3 games he’s 52/73 for 595 total yards with 5 TD’s to 0 INT’s.
  • The Saints defense has been in a steady decline allowing 5.3-Yards Per Play in their last three games. Prior to facing the pathetic Panthers offense last week, the Saints had allowed 27, 24 and 33 points in the three previous games.
  • The Giants defense has held 5 of their last eight opponents to 19 or less points.  
  • The Saints don’t enjoy much of a home field advantage with a 3-3 record and an average point differential of +0.2ppg.
  • Grab the points with the G-Men

OTHER GREAT PACKAGES

RECENT FREE BETS

    Posted on by

    NFL free bet | Vikings vs Bengals prediction | December 16

    ASA’s FREE NFL play on UNDER 40.5 Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday 1PM ET

    NFL free bet from ASA on Saturday, December 16th. The Bengals w/Jake Browning under center scoring-fest is about to come crashing back down to earth this week when he faces this Vikings defense. Minnesota just pitched a shutout in Las Vegas and has allowed 12 total points in the past two games. The Vikings defense has allowed 19 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Minnesota ranks 10th in total yards per game allowed, 8th in yards per play allowed, 5th against the run and allows the 14th least passing yards per game. In their last three games the Vikes defense is giving up just 4.7 yards per play. Browning and the Bengals put up 34-points against the Colts and Jaguars in the past two weeks but neither of those two defenses are as good as the one they’ll face on Saturday. The Bengals defense has been atrocious this season but the Vikings with QB Mullins won’t be able to exploit that weakness. It won’t help that the Vikings will be without RB Mattison who is out here. In their last three games the Vikings are averaging just 4.5YPP and averaging 1-point scored for every 26 yards gained. The Bengals are allowing 6.5YPP on the season but have showed improvement in their last 3 games allowing just 5.5YPP. We would love to see this line go to 41 for a better number but will make a small wager or free NFL bet on Under 40.5.

    ON SALE BETS TODAY

    RECENT FREE PICKS

    Posted on by

    NFL Free Bet | 6-Point Teaser | Ravens + Titans

    NFL 6-POINT TEASER BET – Baltimore Ravens -.5 / Tennessee Titans +8.5

    Baltimore is the #1 ranked DVOA team in the NFL with the 4th ranked offense and 2nd ranked defense and have the best overall scoring differential in the NFL at +12.8PPG.

    The Ravens have been even better at home with an average +/- of +19.8PPG.

    In their last two home games the Ravens have beaten two upper echelon teams from the NFC the Seahawks and Lions by a combined 75-9.

    Cleveland has a top tier defense ranked #1 in DVOA but the offense has struggled with a ranking of 28th.

    The Browns average just 4.6YPP on the season while allowing 4.3 for a net differential of +0.3.

    In comparison, The Ravens average 5.7YPP on offense and allow just 4.1YPP for net differential of +1.6YPP.

    These two teams met earlier in the season in Cleveland with the Ravens winning 28-3 with a +130 yardage advantage.

    We like the Ravens to win.

    The second part of this two team 6PT Teaser leg is on Tennessee + over a TD against Tampa Bay.

    Tennessee with coach Vrabel have been outstanding as an underdog with a 29-19-1 ATS record or 60.4%.

    Conversely, Tampa Bay as a favorite is just 5-10-1 ATS their last 16 in that role.

    Tampa Bay has an average Margin of Victory of -1.1PPG. Tennessee has a negative differential of -1.5PPG.

    The Titans are 3-5 SU on the season but only one of those losses have been by more than 9-points.

    ON SALE BETS

    Posted on by

    TNF Free Bet – Bears vs. Commanders – October 5th 2023

    ASA FREE PLAY 1ST HALF TOTAL BET – OVER 21.5 CHICAGO BEARS @ WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

    These teams should put up plenty of points here in the first half to cash this over. Games involving the Bears this season have averaged 25.3 total points per game by halftime.

    Ironically, games involving the Commanders have averaged that exact same total of 25.3PPG.

    Defensively Washington is solid against the Pass but susceptible against the run. The Commanders allow 4.5 Yards Per Rush (26th) and 122.5RYPG (21st). The Bears can exploit that weakness with their rushing offense that is 5th in Yards Per Rush at 4.7 and 13th in overall rushing YPG.

    Washington allows 30PPG (29th) which is a full TD more than league average.

    While we are on the subject of defense….

    The Bears defense allows 6.2YPPL which ranks 29th in the league. They give up 34.2PPG which is 2nd to last in the league.

    Washington hasn’t been great offensively but QB Howell should have success here against a Bears Pass D is 32nd in Yards Per Completion, 31st in Yards Per Pass Attempt and 31st in opposing quarterbacks QBR.

    It all adds up to plenty of points in the 1st half of this game and we will back the OVER 21.5 1st HALF.

    ON SALE PACKAGES

    RECENT BETTING ARTICLES