ASA Free NBA player prop OVER 18.5 POINTS for CJ McCollum Hawks vs Knicks
McCollum continues to see a high usage rate for the Hawks and is one of the few vets on this team with big game experience. He is coming off a 26-point scoring night in Game 1 of this series on 11 of 20 shooting. He has gone OVER this prop total in 6 of his last ten games. The Knicks allow 23.3ppg on the season to shooting guards and have allowed 5 of the last eight similar players to McCollum go OVER their scoring prop. We expect McCollum to find the bottom of the net plenty in Game 2 against the Knicks.
NBA free player prop bet Game 1 Blazers vs Spurs, April 19th
ASA NBA player prop bet – Spurs De’Aaron Fox OVER 23.5 Points+Assists
Of the Spurs “big 3” in San Antonio of Wembanyama, Castle and Fox, only De’Aaron Fox has playoff experience, and we like the vet to have a big game here. In a recent game against this same Blazers team he put up a stat line of 32 in points + assists. He produced 29, 28 and 32 P+A in his last three games and his closing line was 25.5 or more in all three which makes today’s line a bargain. Portland allows 24ppg to point guards this season and 8.0 assists per game. In three games against the Blazers this season, Fox has averaged 33.3 points + assists per game.
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850)
As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their starting 5 which hurt them throughout the regular season as they lacked depth. Now Aaron Gordon and his 16PPG and 6RPG is back on the floor, along with Cam Johnson finding his stroke (43% from deep this season) which has the Nuggets poised to make a serious run at the Championship. Nikola Jokic (how isn’t he the MVP) is a triple-double machine (27.7PPG, 12.9RPG, 10.7APG) and Jamal Murray is putting up fantastic numbers this season with 25.4PPG and 7.1APG. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets have gone 19-8 SU with the 7th best Net rating in the league. The regular season injuries may have been a blessing in disguise as it forced bench players into bigger roles. That experience now gives Denver some added depth they would have been missing in this post season. To win it all you have to be successful on the road and the Nuggets were 26-15 SU awa from home this regular season with an average plus/minus of +4.7PPG. It’s going to be VERY difficult to come out of the West against either the Thunder or Spurs, but the Nuggets are capable of doing it. We won’t be making a huge investment in this – but at these longer odds we’ll make a small wager on Denver +850.
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference
The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA. Could the Celtics win the Eastern Conference – yes absolutely but there isn’t value in their price at +160. The Cavs are next on the list at +370 but there’s no chance I’d invest in this team. Cleveland has been up and down more than a yo-yo and James Harden isn’t known for his “big game” prowess. The Knicks have a roster that could certainly challenge for the EC crown but Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns are too big of liabilities on the defensive end of the court.
That leaves us…
The Pistons won 60 games this season, yet nobody is talking about them as the potential NBA Champions or even the Eastern Conference Champ. Detroit had the 2nd best overall scoring differential at +8.2PPG and had the best record against the leagues top 10 teams with a 17-7 SU record. This team can lock teams down with the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating at 1.098-points per possession allowed. Despite Cade Cunningham missing extended time in the later part of the season, the Pistons were 20-9 SU after the All-Star break with the 6th best Net differential of +8.7. Detroit held opponents to 44.3% shooting on the season, 2nd lowest number in the league and had the best 3PT% defense at 34.5%. The Pistons had the 3rd best road record in the league at 28-13 SU with an average margin of victory of +5.8PPG so they have what it takes to win away from home. Detroit also had a 39-13 SU record against the rest of the Eastern Conference this season. Against the two other Eastern Conference challengers, the Celtics and Knicks, the Pistons were 3-1 against the Celtics, 3-0 versus the Knicks. This prediction is weighed heavily on the health of Cunningham and if he’s near 100% this team has a legitimate chance to come out of the East.
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.
The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.
The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.160 points scored/allowed per possession. The Denver Nuggets were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.226 points per possession while the OKC Thunder held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.078 points allowed per/possession. If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.
This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion, 4 games to 1. The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.
Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.
NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:
2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)
2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)
2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)
2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)
2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)
2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)
2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)
2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)
2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th)
2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)
2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)
2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)
2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)
2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 13th)
2023-24 Boston Celtics (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 3rd)
2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 1st)
2025-26 – ?
EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER
You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last seventeen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It happened with the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets the following season 2022-23. Every team that has won a Championship in the past 17 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season.
Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Spurs, Rockets, Pistons and surprisingly, the Hornets. Minnesota was close to being a qualifier with the 12th rated OEFF and the 8th best DEFF rating. One team we didn’t mention for the Nuggets. The interesting aspect for Denver is that they have the 7th best efficiency differential overall at +5.2 as a result of their offense being so good this season.
2025-26 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”
Boston Celtics: OEFF 2nd, DEFF 4th
Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 7th, DEFF 1st
San Antonio Spurs: OEFF 4th, DEFF 3rd
Houston Rockets: OEFF 8th, DEFF 6th
Detroit Pistons: OEFF 10th, DEFF 2nd
NY Knicks: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 7th
Charlotte Hornets, 5th, DEFF 12th
Whoever you decide to bet on to win it all this season you may want to consider a closer look at the OEFF/DEFF teams mentioned above.
Be sure to check out our Finals predictions and longshots in other articles here on this site.
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
Jordan Pope (ankle) has been deemed a "true game-time decision," but it looks like he's going to give it a go for Texas and try to at least gut it out.
Gotta love the @CBSSports "expert" analysts talking about the brackets with Clark Kellogg saying that High Point has experience and good size. Experience yes. Size what? They rank 329th in average height and don't have a single guy over 6'8 in their rotation #NCAAtourney
Spot the difference between the #NHL and #NBA? The toothless guy who lays it on the line for pride in his country or the guy that flops and fakes injuries all the time? #jackhughes @stoolpresidente @usahockey
