ASAwins NFL projections UNDER 9.5 WINS (-125) Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings’ 2024 season (14-3) was an outlier, driven by luck in close games (8-1 SU in one-score games) and Sam Darnold’s career-best performance. The Minnesota Vikings’ win total for the 2025-26 NFL season is set at 9.5, with the under at -125 odds (54.5% implied probability).
This bet assumes the Vikings will win 9 or fewer games, a reasonable prediction given key factors. After a 14-3 record in 2024, which exceeded expected wins by 2.5 games, historical trends suggest regression (average drop of 5.33 wins for similar teams).
The Vikings face the NFL’s 5th-hardest schedule, with 11 games against 2024 winning teams, including five with 12+ wins, and international games in Dublin and London.
Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, who hasn’t taken a regular season snap under center, missed the entire 2024 season due to injury. Granted, has a strong supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson) and an elite defense (2nd in DVOA), but can he fill Darnold’s shoes? McCarthy will have a tough time duplicating Darnold’s statistics from last season as he finished 5th in total passing yards, had a 66.2% completion percentage with 35 TD’s to 12 INT’s and a QBR of 102.5.
Minnesota was 19th in rushing yards per game a season ago so it’s not like they can lean on Aaron Jones and the running game if McCarthy struggles.
While Kevin O’Connell’s coaching and QB development is some of the best in the NFL, the tough schedule and potential growing pains for McCarthy make the under 9.5 wins an attractive wager at -125. We are projecting a 9-win season at most for the Vikings.
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