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WNBA predictions | 2025 Draft Breakdown | Rookie of the Year bets

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ASA breaks down the 2025 WNBA draft and offers Rookie of the Year Longshots

We have a quick breakdown of the first-round draft in the WNBA from Tuesday night as we prepare for our second season of handicapping women’s professional basketball. Last season we destroyed the Books with a +40-Net Unit season in the WNBA and we look forward to doing it again in 2025. The preseason starts May 2nd with the regular season tipping off on Friday, May 16th. Watch for available WNBA packages from ASA in the coming weeks.

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Be sure to pay attention to our WNBA Rookie of the Year predictions below with a +3000 and a +8000 longshots who we like to cash the ROY ticket.

The 2025 WNBA Draft took place on April 14, 2025, at The Shed at Hudson Yards in New York City, marking the 29th draft in league history. It was a pivotal event for the league, introducing new talent to a 44-game season, the longest ever—and welcoming the expansion team, the Golden State Valkyries. The draft featured 12 first-round picks, as the Las Vegas Aces’ selection was rescinded due to violations involving impermissible player benefits. ESPN is trying desperately to portray Paige Buechers as the next Kaitlyn Clark but do not be fooled by the talking-heads and their rhetoric. Buechers is going to be a great addition to the Wings, but she’s not on Clarks level. Below is a breakdown of the first-round players and the teams that drafted them, based on available information.

#1 Paige Bueckers – Dallas Wings

Position: Point Guard

College: UConn

Overview: The consensus top pick, Bueckers was fresh off leading UConn to a national championship. A versatile guard with elite scoring (19.8 PPG career average), playmaking (4.6 APG), and shooting (42.3% from three), she’s poised to be a franchise cornerstone alongside Arike Ogunbowale. Her accolades include the Wooden Award, Naismith Award, and three Big East Player of the Year honors.

#2 Dominique Malonga – Seattle Storm

Position: Center

Club/Country: ASVEL Féminin/France

Overview: A 19-year-old French phenom, Malonga brings size (6’6”) and upside. Averaging 15.4 points and 10.3 rebounds in France’s top league, she also competed in the 2024 Olympics. Her selection adds depth to Seattle’s frontcourt, where she can develop under veterans like Ezi Magbegor.

#3 Sonia Citron – Washington Mystics

Position: Guard

College: Notre Dame

Overview: Citron, a First-Team All-ACC selection, offers defensive versatility and spot-up shooting (14.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG). Her steady, high-IQ play makes her a fit for the rebuilding Mystics, who hold multiple first-round picks.

#4 Kiki Iriafen – Washington Mystics

Position: Power Forward

College: USC

Overview: Iriafen’s athleticism and face-up game (reliable finisher around the basket) make her a strong addition. While her 3-point shooting needs growth, her scoring and rebounding prowess suit Washington’s need for frontcourt talent.

#5 Justė Jocytė – Golden State Valkyries

Position: Forward

Club/Country: ASVEL Lyon/Lithuania

Overview: The Valkyries, in their inaugural draft, selected the 19-year-old Lithuanian for her playmaking and 6’2” frame. Playing professionally in France, Jocytė brings international experience and versatility to an expansion roster building from scratch.

#6 Georgia Amoore – Washington Mystics

Position: Point Guard

College: Kentucky

Overview: Amoore, known for her SEC assists leadership, averaged 14.1 points and 7.3 assists. Her Australian flair and court vision give the Mystics a dynamic backcourt option, complementing their earlier picks.

#7 Aneesah Morrow – Connecticut Sun

Position: Forward

College: LSU

Overview: Morrow led the nation in rebounding (13.5 RPG) and double-doubles (29) at LSU. Her 30-point, 19-rebound Sweet 16 performance showcased her scoring and defensive skills, making her a high-upside pick for the rebuilding Sun.

**ROOKIE OF THE YEAR +3000** Aneesah Morrow, selected seventh overall by the Connecticut Sun in the 2025 WNBA Draft, is a strong contender for Rookie of the Year at +3000 odds due to her elite production and fit with a rebuilding team. Coming off an LSU career where she led the nation in rebounding (13.5 RPG) and double-doubles (29), Morrow’s relentless scoring (16.4 PPG) and defensive tenacity make her a standout. Her 30-point, 19-rebound Sweet 16 performance showcased her ability to dominate. Joining a Sun squad looking to replace departed veterans, Morrow should see significant minutes alongside Alyssa Thomas, whose playmaking (7.9 APG last season) will create easy scoring chances for Morrow inside. With Connecticut’s defensive focus drawing attention to Thomas and DeWanna Bonner, Morrow’s rebounding prowess and efficient finishing (51.8% FG at LSU) position her to rack up stats and make an immediate impact, offering excellent value for the rookie award.

#8 Saniya Rivers – Connecticut Sun

Position: Guard/Forward

College: NC State

Overview: A versatile wing, Rivers (11.9 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 3.8 APG) helped NC State reach the Final Four. Her defensive potential and all-around game align with Connecticut’s need for multi-faceted players.

#9 Sarah Ashlee Barker – Los Angeles Sparks

Position: Guard

College: Alabama

Overview: Barker, an All-SEC First-Team pick, averaged 18.2 points and set Alabama’s single-game scoring record (45 points). Her scoring versatility fills the Sparks’ need for perimeter firepower.

**ROOKIE OF THE YEAR +8000** Sarah Ashlee Barker, drafted ninth overall by the Los Angeles Sparks in the 2025 WNBA Draft, is poised to make a significant impact as a rookie and could be a dark-horse candidate for Rookie of the Year at +8000 odds. Joining a Sparks team that struggled with an 8-32 record last season, Barker will likely see ample playing time on a roster craving offensive firepower. Paired with veteran Kelsey Plum, acquired from Las Vegas, and alongside last year’s rookie Cameron Brink (expected back from injury by June), Barker steps into a situation ripe for opportunity. Her collegiate stats at Alabama—18.2 points per game on 51% shooting, 37.5% from three, 6.3 rebounds, and 3.9 assists—highlight her versatility as a 6’0” guard. Barker’s 45-point game as a senior underscores her scoring ceiling. With opponents likely keying in on DeWanna Hamby (17.3 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 1.7 SPG), Barker should find open looks, especially from deep, where her efficiency shines. Her ability to score, facilitate, and rebound, combined with the Sparks’ need for immediate contributors, positions her to outperform expectations and potentially claim Rookie of the Year honors in a wide-open race.

#10 Ajša Sivka – Chicago Sky

Position: Power Forward

Club/Country: Tarbes Gespe Bigorre/Slovenia

Overview: The 19-year-old Slovenian brings size (6’3”) and shooting. A draft-and-stash candidate, Sivka’s MVP performance at the 2023 U18 European Championship highlights her potential for Chicago’s future.

#11 Hailey Van Lith – Chicago Sky

Position: Guard

College: TCU

Overview: The Big 12 Player of the Year (17.9 PPG, 5.4 APG) led TCU to the Elite Eight. Reuniting with LSU teammate Angel Reese, Van Lith’s playmaking and grit suit Chicago, where she’ll learn from Courtney Vandersloot.

#12 Aziaha James – Dallas Wings

Position: Guard

College: NC State

Overview: James, an explosive scorer (17.9 PPG), hit 75+ threes in her last two seasons. Her perimeter scoring adds depth to Dallas’ backcourt, complementing Bueckers.

Notes:

The Mystics (three picks) and Sun and Wings (two each) maximized their first-round hauls, reflecting active roster-building.

The draft showcased a mix of college stars (Bueckers, Van Lith) and international talent (Malonga, Jocytė, Sivka), highlighting the WNBA’s global reach.

No official combine exists, but the Lilly Women’s College All-Star Combine during the NCAA Final Four weekend helped scouts evaluate prospects.

This draft sets the stage for a competitive 2025 season, with rookies like Bueckers and Malonga expected to make immediate impacts, but don’t be shocked if neither win the Rookie of the Year award.

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NBA MVP Predictions | NBA Bets | April 2nd 2025

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The 2024-25 NBA MVP Prediction: Nikola Jokić, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, and Giannis Antetokounmpo Battle for Supremacy

NBA MVP Predictions: As the 2024-25 NBA regular season nears its conclusion, the race for the Most Valuable Player (MVP) award has crystallized into a thrilling showdown among three of the league’s brightest stars: Nikola Jokić of the Denver Nuggets, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander of the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. Each player brings a unique blend of statistical dominance, team success, and individual brilliance to the table, making this one of the most compelling MVP battles in recent memory. Let’s break down their cases by examining their per-game statistics, Player Efficiency Ratings (PER), team records, and win-share rates as of April 2, 2025.

Statistical Breakdown

Nikola Jokić (Denver Nuggets) +900 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 29.7
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 12.8
  • Assists per Game (APG): 10.3
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.8
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 0.7
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 32.2

Jokić is delivering what may be the finest season of his already illustrious career. The three-time MVP is on pace to become just the third player in NBA history to average a triple-double for an entire season, joining Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook. His efficiency is staggering, with a true shooting percentage hovering around 65.9%, and he’s posting career highs in points, assists, and steals. Jokić’s ability to orchestrate Denver’s offense while dominating the glass and contributing defensively makes him a one-man wrecking crew.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Oklahoma City Thunder) -2000 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 32.9
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 5.1
  • Assists per Game (APG): 6.3
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.7
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 1.0
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 30.9

Gilgeous-Alexander has emerged as the league’s leading scorer, blending relentless efficiency (52.6% field goal, 90.1% free throw) with a newfound penchant for highlight-reel performances, including four 50-point games this season. His all-around game is bolstered by career-best marks in blocks and a defensive tenacity that has him among the league leaders in steals. SGA’s consistency—scoring fewer than 20 points just once all year—underscores his value to the Thunder’s juggernaut season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks) +50,000 at Draftkings

  • Points per Game (PPG): 30.4
  • Rebounds per Game (RPG): 11.9
  • Assists per Game (APG): 6.0
  • Steals per Game (SPG): 1.2
  • Blocks per Game (BPG): 1.3
  • Player Efficiency Rating (PER): 30

The Greek Freak remains a force of nature, averaging over 30 points on nearly 60% shooting from the field—a feat of efficiency that places him among the league’s most dominant interior scorers. His rebounding and playmaking continue to shine, and his defensive impact (1.3 blocks per game) keeps him in the conversation as a two-way titan. While his numbers don’t quite match the historic flair of Jokić or SGA’s scoring prowess, Giannis’ all-around excellence keeps him firmly in the MVP mix.

Team Records

Denver Nuggets: 47-29 third in the Western Conference)

Oklahoma City Thunder: 63-12 (first in the Western Conference, 14.5 games ahead of second place)

Milwaukee Bucks: 41-34 (sixth in the Eastern Conference)

Team success often plays a pivotal role in MVP voting, and here, Gilgeous-Alexander holds a clear edge. The Thunder’s 63-12 record is a testament to their dominance, with SGA as the driving force behind a 14.5-game lead in the West. Jokić’s Nuggets, while competitive, sit well behind at 47-29, hampered by injuries and a lack of consistent support around their star. Antetokounmpo’s Bucks, at 41-34, are in playoff contention but lack the top-tier record that has historically bolstered MVP candidacies.

Win-Share Rates

Win shares (WS) measure a player’s contribution to their team’s victories, blending offensive and defensive impact. Here’s how the trio stacks up this season:

Nikola Jokić: Approximately 14.5 win shares (estimated league leader)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Approximately 13.8 win shares (estimated second in the league)

Giannis Antetokounmpo: Approximately 11.0 win shares (estimated top five)

Jokić’s win-share rate reflects his unparalleled impact on Denver’s success, carrying a roster that struggles mightily without him. His per-48-minute win shares are among the highest in NBA history, a nod to his efficiency and versatility. Gilgeous-Alexander’s slightly lower total is offset by his role on a vastly superior team, with a win-share-per-48 rate that ranks him in the all-time top 10. Antetokounmpo’s 11.0 win shares are impressive but trail the top two, reflecting Milwaukee’s middling record despite his brilliance.

The MVP Case: A Three-Way Comparison

Nikola Jokić has the statistical edge, with a triple-double average and a PER that could set a new personal best. His case hinges on the “value” argument—Denver’s mediocrity without him underscores his indispensability. However, voter fatigue (three MVPs in the last four years) and the Nuggets’ subpar record could hinder his chances.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander boasts the narrative of a breakout superstar leading the league’s best team. His scoring title, defensive improvement, and OKC’s historic 62-8 pace make him the betting favorite (odds as low as -2000 recently). Critics might argue his supporting cast lessens his individual burden compared to Jokić, but his consistency and team success are hard to ignore.

Giannis Antetokounmpo remains a dark horse, with a stat line that would dominate most seasons. His two-way impact and efficiency are undeniable, but Milwaukee’s inconsistent campaign and his distance from the top two in win shares and team record dim his prospects. Still, a late surge could vault him back into contention.

Conclusion

As of April 2, 2025, the MVP race is a razor-thin contest between Jokić and Gilgeous-Alexander, with Antetokounmpo as a worthy but distant third. Jokić’s historic numbers and singular impact give him a compelling case, but SGA’s scoring crown and the Thunder’s dominance might tip the scales. Giannis, while exceptional, seems destined for a top-five finish rather than the top spot. With two weeks left, every game will matter—but for now, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander holds the slight edge in the betting markets and odds are the voter fatigue with Jokic, despite his historic season, will land SGA this year’s MVP award. If I had a vote it’s the NIkola Jokic all day with his efficiency and win/share stats. Take him off the Nuggets and this team doesn’t make the playoffs.

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