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NFL Prop Bets | MNF Vikings vs Bears | Sep 8 2025

Caleb Williams Player Prop Bet: Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-115) vs. Vikings

In 2024, Caleb Williams was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, taking 68 sacks across 17 games. His mobility was a necessity, as he scrambled or ran on designed plays frequently, finishing with 489 rushing yards on 81 attempts (6.0 yards per carry). Notably, Williams had 4+ carries in 14 of 19 games and averaged 4.8 per for the season, including 10 carries in each of his two matchups against the Vikings last season. These games highlight his tendency to run when pressured by Minnesota’s defense, which led the NFL in quarterback pressures in 2024.

Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Receptions (-110) vs. Bears

In 2024, Aaron Jones recorded 51 receptions on 67 targets over 17 games, averaging 3.0 receptions per game with the Vikings. He surpassed 2.5 receptions in 12 of 17 games, showcasing his reliability as a pass-catching back. Facing the Bears in 2024, Jones had 4 receptions for 46 yards in Week 12 and 3 receptions for 28 yards in Week 14, clearing the 2.5 mark in both games. With McCarthy, a rookie, starting under center, expect head coach Kevin O’Connell to lean on short, safe check-downs to Jones to ease the quarterback into the game. Minnesota’s offense in 2024 ranked 7th in passing yards (4,123), and Jones was a key outlet, with a 7.6% target share in the passing game.

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Minnesota Vikings Under 9.5 wins | 2025-26 | Futures Bet

Minnesota Vikings Wins

ASAwins NFL projections UNDER 9.5 WINS (-125) Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings’ 2024 season (14-3) was an outlier, driven by luck in close games (8-1 SU in one-score games) and Sam Darnold’s career-best performance. The Minnesota Vikings’ win total for the 2025-26 NFL season is set at 9.5, with the under at -125 odds (54.5% implied probability).

This bet assumes the Vikings will win 9 or fewer games, a reasonable prediction given key factors. After a 14-3 record in 2024, which exceeded expected wins by 2.5 games, historical trends suggest regression (average drop of 5.33 wins for similar teams).

The Vikings face the NFL’s 5th-hardest schedule, with 11 games against 2024 winning teams, including five with 12+ wins, and international games in Dublin and London.

Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, who hasn’t taken a regular season snap under center, missed the entire 2024 season due to injury. Granted, has a strong supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson) and an elite defense (2nd in DVOA), but can he fill Darnold’s shoes? McCarthy will have a tough time duplicating Darnold’s statistics from last season as he finished 5th in total passing yards, had a 66.2% completion percentage with 35 TD’s to 12 INT’s and a QBR of 102.5.

Minnesota was 19th in rushing yards per game a season ago so it’s not like they can lean on Aaron Jones and the running game if McCarthy struggles.

While Kevin O’Connell’s coaching and QB development is some of the best in the NFL, the tough schedule and potential growing pains for McCarthy make the under 9.5 wins an attractive wager at -125. We are projecting a 9-win season at most for the Vikings.

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