Tag: betting trends

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Will the Dogs be barking?

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Underdogs Continue to Dominate

By ASAwins

As the NFL season kicks off, bettors are diving into Week 1 with a wealth of historical data pointing to one clear trend: underdogs have been a goldmine in the opening week. Since 2016, underdogs in Week 1 have posted an impressive 78-62 record against the spread (ATS), translating to a 56% success rate and an 8% return on investment (ROI). This trend highlights the value of betting on teams overlooked by oddsmakers early in the season, when uncertainty about team performance is at its peak.

Road Dogs Pave the Way
Drilling down further, road underdogs have been even more profitable. Since 2016, Week 1 road dogs have gone 52-36 ATS, a 59% clip that delivers a robust 14% ROI. Teams playing away from home, often underestimated due to the perceived disadvantage, have consistently outperformed expectations in the season opener. Bettors looking for an edge might find road underdogs to be a key piece of their Week 1 strategy.

Teams That Missed the Playoffs Bounce Back
Another angle to consider is teams that missed the postseason in the previous year. These underdogs have a strong track record in Week 1, going 59-45 ATS (57%) since 2016, with a 10% ROI. Teams coming off a disappointing season often enter the new campaign with a chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous bets against the spread in the opening week.

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Divisional Dogs: A Hidden Gem
Divisional underdogs in Week 1 are a particularly hot commodity. Since 2016, these teams have gone 31-16 ATS, an eye-popping 66% success rate that yields a 26% ROI. Familiarity within divisions can level the playing field, and oddsmakers may overvalue favorites in these matchups, creating opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on underdogs.

Big Dogs Bark Loudest
For those willing to take on more risk, big underdogs—those getting 6.5 or more points—have been a revelation. Since 2016, these teams have posted a 25-12 ATS record in Week 1, a 68% success rate with a massive 31% ROI. These high-upside bets can pay off handsomely when oddsmakers overestimate the gap between teams early in the season.

Division Home Underdogs Hold Strong
While road dogs shine, don’t sleep on divisional home underdogs. Since 2010, Week 1 home underdogs playing within their division have gone 23-7 ATS, a remarkable 76.7% success rate. Playing in front of their own fans, these teams often defy expectations, making them a reliable option for bettors looking to back the underdog at home.

Conclusion
Week 1 of the NFL season is a bettor’s paradise, with underdogs consistently delivering value across multiple categories. Whether it’s road dogs, divisional underdogs, teams coming off a non-playoff season, or big dogs getting 6.5+ points, the data since 2016 points to a clear strategy: don’t be afraid to back the underdog. Add in the strong performance of home underdogs since 2010, and bettors have a wealth of angles to explore. As you finalize your Week 1 bets, keep these trends in mind—history shows the underdog often has its day in the NFL’s opening week.

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NBA free bet today | Cavs vs Heat | Game 3 April 26th

NBA free bet today: ASA play on Miami Heat +5.5 vs. Cleveland Cavaliers, 1pm ET

We are going to support the Heat plus the points in this one as we trust Miami head coach Spolestra to dial up a gameplan to get a home win in Game 3.

Miami played much better in the 2nd half of their last game, outscoring the Cavs 61-53 over the final 2 quarters of Game 2. The Heat won the rebound battle 38-34 and shot well at 52%.

The Cavs were dialed in from Deep by hitting 22-45 from beyond the Arc, but don’t expect shots to fall as easily on the road in Miami.

The Heat were home underdogs just 15 times this season and a profitable 9-6 ATS in those games with an average plus/minus of -3.7ppg (good enough for a cover here).

Cleveland was very good as a road chalk this season at 20-14 ATS but they are just 2-5 ATS in that role their last seven. Miami shoots it much better at home than they do on the road with the 4th best 3PT% on their home court in the NBA.

The Cavs road 3PT% defense ranks 18th. If the Heat are going to win a game in this series it could be this one. Regardless, we expect a close game and will grab the points.

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NHL Free pick | Flyers vs Canadiens | April 5th 2025

ASA play on Montreal Canadiens -162 vs. Philadelphia Flyers, 7pm ET

The Canadiens are in a must-win situation, desperately needing two points to keep their playoff hopes alive. Meanwhile, the Flyers have already been eliminated from postseason contention, giving them little motivation. Montreal has been strong at home with a 20-12-5 record this season and an impressive 5-1 mark as a home favorite. In contrast, Philadelphia has struggled on the road, posting a 12-17-8 record and a dismal 9-22 mark as the road underdog. The goaltending matchup further favors Montreal. The Flyers will start Samuel Ersson, who has a 3.8 goals-against average (GAA) over his last ten games, with Philly going just 3-7 in his last ten starts. The Canadiens counter with Sam Montembeault, who has been solid lately, going 6-2 in his last eight decisions with a 2.7 GAA. Given Montreal’s desperation, home dominance, and goaltending edge, the Canadiens look like a solid play against a Flyers team with nothing left to fight for.

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