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NBA Finals Prediction – Efficiency Champion – 4/19/24

NBA Championships based on Math!

By – ASA

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.

The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.153 points scored/allowed per possession. The Boston Celtics were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.232 points per possessions while the Minnesota Timberwolves held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.090 points allowed per/possession.  If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.

Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th) 

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)

2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)

2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF 5th, DEFF = 13th)

EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER

You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last fifteen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It has been the last two Champs in the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets last season.  Every team that has won a Championship in the past 15 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season. 

Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Nuggets, Knicks, Suns and Pelicans. On the outside looking in is Philadelphia who we know played a portion of the season without an MVP type player in Joel Embiid. The Sixers were 13th in OEFF and 11th in DEFF this season. Another team who we pegged prior to the start of the season at +2500 to win it all, who falls outside of this parameter, is the Mavericks. The Mavs rank 10th in OEFF on the season but don’t qualify defensively, ranking 18th in DEFF for the year. But, since the All-Star break the Mavs defense has been infinitely better, ranking 12th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.134PPP.

2023-24 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 1st, DEFF 3rd

Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 4th

Denver Nuggets: OEFF 5th, DEFF 8th

NY Knicks: OEFF 7th, DEFF 9th

New Orleans Pelicans: OEFF 11th, DEFF 7th

Phoenix Suns: OEFF 9th, DEFF 13th 

Let’s also take into consideration how these teams fared this season against the other top 16 teams in the league. 

Celtics 27-14 SU

Thunder 27-18 SU

T’Wolves 26-19 SU

Nuggets 28-18 SU

Knicks 17-23

Suns 23-22

Intriguing options not on the list! – Dallas Mavericks (+1600) or Los Angeles Clippers (+1600) 

As we mentioned above the Mavericks would make this list if we tabulated stats from the All-Star break on. Dallas made some moves prior to the trade deadline and brought in PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford which improved their defense dramatically. Offensively this team has two of the best players on the planet, Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving who can each single-handedly take over a game on the offensive end of the court. The Clippers go as far as a healthy Kawhi Leonard can take them. Unfortunately, we don’t know Leonard’s status but “Playoff Kawhi” is as good as any player historically in the NBA in the postseason. L.A. is loaded with All-Star level talent with Paul George, James Harden, Russell Westbrook along with Leonard and it wouldn’t surprise us to see them in the Finals. The Clippers ranked 4th in Offensive Efficiency this season but were 16th defensively. 

Our Money is on the favorite…BOSTON CELTICS *We had Boston prior to the start of the season at +380*

Everyone talks about a “Big 3” when it comes to NBA Super Teams, but you could argue that the Celtics have a “Big 5” with a starting lineup that includes: Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, Jrue Holiday and Derrick White. Let’s not forget to mention the Celtics bench with Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Luke Kornet and Payton Pritchard, just to name a few, who helped Boston have the best bench Net Rating in the NBA at +6.2.  

As we previously mentioned, the Celtics had the best record in the NBA against the top 16 teams in the league this season at 27-14. They ranked 1st in OEFF and 3rd defensively. The Celtics had the best average Margin of Victory per game at +11.3 overall. Boston won at home by an average of +15.2PPG and had a road average differential of +7.5PPG, all best MOV’s in the league. The Celtics have the advantage of home court throughout the Playoffs where they were near unbeatable. They were 20-4 SU versus other playoff teams on their floor this season. Boston may not have to face either Joel Embiid or Giannis Antetokounmpo in the Eastern Conference Finals, and even though the Knicks qualify for an Efficiency Championship, we don’t think they are deep enough to beat the Celtics in a 7-game series. 

Overall, this shapes up to be one of the best NBA playoffs in a long time and we can’t wait! Best of luck with all your wagers.

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NFL Playoff Future Bet – Passing Leaders – Point Train Consulting

NFL Playoff Futures Bets to Make – By Point Train Consulting

Odds offered at Draftkings.com

MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE PLAYOFFS

NFC QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott +360

Brock Purdy +700

Jared Goff +750

Baker Mayfield +1600

Jalen Hurts +1700

Matt Stafford +2200

Jordan Love +3000

AFC QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen +500

Patrick Mahomes +550

Lamar Jackson +700

Tua Tagovaliloa +950

Joe Flacco +1200

CJ Stroud +2000

Mason Rudolph +3500

First off you have to project who will play the most games. Clearly the 49ers and Ravens, barring a significant injury, will be favored in every game up until the Super Bowl.  That makes those two teams likely to play three games each as both get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Obviously, if a team that is playing this weekend advances to the Super Bowl, those quarterbacks will have an added game to their total passing stats resume.

Of the playoff teams, Miami averaged the most passing yards per game on the season followed by Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo, Rams, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens and the Steelers. The teams that averaged the most passing attempts in order were: Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Rams, Packers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, 49ers.

Our focus immediately goes to the two favorites in the 49ers and Ravens. Baltimore is clearly a run first team as they average the most rushing attempts per game at 31.8 and they rank down the list in passing yards per game and attempts.  In other words, we are not betting on Lamar Jackson.

San Francisco clearly runs a lot too at 29.4 attempts per game, but Purdy also slings it for an average of 257.9 yards per game which is 4th most in the league. The Niners also tend to hit big passing plays as they average 13-yards per completion which is 1st in the league.

At +700 and with the likely scenario that the 49ers play three games we have to put a bet on him at these odds.

We will hedge that wager with a bet on the favorite Dak Prescott. The Cowboys face the Packers in Game 1 and the 27th overall ranked DVOA defense. Granted the Packers rank 9th in passing yards per game allowed but they are 17th in completion percentage against and 18th in yards per completion. Dallas will benefit from playing the first two rounds of the playoffs at home in a Dome and the third game in San Francisco in what should be good conditions. The Cowboys averaged the 3rd most passing yards per game at 258.6, but at home that average improved to 305YPG, best in the NFL.

At +360 we have to invest in Dak Prescott to have the most playoff passing yards.

You can essentially rule out the contenders in the AFC as they are likely going to be playing outdoors in potentially adverse conditions.

Of course, if Dallas and San Francisco get upset in the early rounds none of this matters but the odds are on our side that these two teams play three games each.

Brock Purdy +700

Dak Prescott +360

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NBA Future Bets – 2023-24 – By ASA

NBA Future Bets – Oct 23rd

If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.

ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.

Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.

L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS

This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS

The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS

This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS

The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.

Good luck – ASA

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Big 10 Betting Breakdown | Sept 2nd Recaps

BIG 10 Betting Notes from Games played on SEPTEMBER 2nd – By ASA

NEBRASKA vs MINNESOTA (13-10 MINNESOTA WIN) – Minnesota scored 10 points in final 3:00 minutes to win by 3 / Nebraska with 4 turnovers – one in the endzone going into score and 2 others that led directly to 10 Minnesota points / Huskers averaged 5.2 YPP & Minnesota averaged 3.6 YPP / Huskers averaged 4.9 YPC and held Minnesota to 2.2 YPC / Nebraska QB Sims, transfer from Georgia Tech, had 11 pass completions and 3 interceptions

CENTRAL MICHIGAN vs MICHIGAN STATE (31-7 MSU WIN) – Big 10 Betting notes. The score was 10-7 at half / MSU outgained CMU by +3.0 YPP (6.3 YPP to 3.3 YPP) / Teams combined for just 8 of 32 on 3rd and 4th down / Spartans defense held CMU scoreless and just 63 total yards on the 2nd half

EAST CAROLINA vs MICHIGAN (30-3 MICHIGAN WIN) – ECU’s only points came on a FG as time expired / Michigan played without head coach Harbaugh and OC Moore who were suspended / QB coach Campbell called plays / Harbaugh will miss the first 3 games and Moore is back next week / Score was 30-0 with just over 9:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter and Michigan didn’t score again / Could have been worse as 2 of Michigan’s final 3 possessions after taking a 30-0 lead ended in a missed FG and shutout on downs at the ECU 1 yard line

OHIO STATE vs INDIANA (23-3 OSU WIN) – IU with only 153 total yards on 2.8 YPP / Hoosiers new QB’s, Jackson and Sorsby with only 9 completed passes combined / IU crossed midfield 3 times in the game / OSU All American WR injured his shoulder in the first half and did not return / After averaging 44 PPG (2nd in the nation) and 491 YPG last season, the Buckeyes put up only 23 points on 380 total yards / New OSU QB McCord was 20 of 33 for 239 yards and 1 interception – his back up Brown only played a few snaps

WEST VIRGINIA vs PENN STATE (38-15 PSU WIN) – PSU HC Franklin obviously knew what the spread was – PSU had ball at WVU 5 yard line with only a few seconds remaining (up 31-15) and instead of taking a knee, they ran the ball in for a TD to cover the 21 point spread / PSU dominated outgaining West Virginia 7.3 YPP to 4.5 YPP / WVU defense did hold the potent Penn State rushing game to 145 yards on 35 carries – 4.2 YPC / New Nittany Lion QB Allar was 21 of 29 for 325 yards and 3 TD’s

BUFFALO vs WISCONSIN (38-17 WISCONSIN WIN)– Big Ten Betting notes on the Badgers and their new up tempo. air raid offense ran 71 plays on Saturday after averaging 66 plays per game (107th nationally) / The 71 offensive snaps in game 1 would have ranked UW right around 52nd in the nation last year / They ran the ball 40 times (314 yards) with 31 pass attempts (189 yards) as new OC Longo has said the offense is called “air raid” but he will take what the defense gives him and use what is working / Wisconsin’s opponent next week is Washington State and they ran 87 offensive plays under new OC who came over from Western Kentucky / Wisconsin led just 14-10 at half but scored points on 4 of their 5 second half possessions with the only other possession ending in an interception / Wisconsin averaged 7.1 YPP & Buffalo just 4.4 YPP

UTAH STATE vs IOWA (24-14 IOWA WIN) – Iowa won the game by 10 points but they were outgained 329 to 284 (4.5 YPP to 4.1 YPP) and outrushed 116 to 88 (4.8 YPC to 2.2 YPC) / New QB McNamara was 17 of 30 for 191 yards and 2 TD’s / Iowa scored 14 points on their first 2 possessions and they just 10 points on their final 10 possessions / Hawkeyes had 156 yards on 7.4 YPP on their first 3 possessions and then averaged only 3.4 YPP after that / Over their final 10 possessions, Iowa had only 2 that lasted more than 6 plays and they punted 7 times / on a sidenote, OC Brian Ferentz has a clause in his contract that if Iowa averages 25 PPG or more and wins at least 7 games, he gets a fairly large bonus – they put up only 24 on USU so not a great

FRESNO STATE vs PURDUE (39-35 FRESNO WIN) – Purdue led 28-17 with 7:00 remaining in the third quarter and Fresno then scored TD’s on 3 of their last 4 possessions / Fresno outgained Purdue 487 to 363 but the Bulldogs also ran 82 offensive plays to just 60 for Purdue – so Boilers actually outgained FSU 6.0 YPP to 5.9 YPP / One of Purdue’s TD’s was a 98 yard kickoff return / Purdue’s new QB Card, transfer from Texas, was 17 of 30 for 254 yards and 2 TD’s / Fresno’s first lead of the game came in the 4th quarter and their game clinching TD came on a 22 yard pass with 59 seconds remaining in the game

TOLEDO vs ILLINOIS (30-28 ILLINOIS WIN) – Toledo won the MAC Championship last season / Toledo outgained Illinois 416 to 374 bur also ran 18 more offensive plays so the Illini actually outgained the Rockets by nearly 1.0 YPP (6.1 to 5.2) / One of the Illini’s TD’s was a 48 yard pick 6 and their game winning FG came with 5 seconds remaining in the game / New Illinois QB Altmyer, transfer from Ole Miss, was 18 of 26 for 211 yards, 2 TD’s and 1 interception / Toledo had a conversion rate of 53% on 3rd & 4th down (9 of 17)

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NFC East prediction | Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins

NFC EAST Prediction on the Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins in 2023

NFL WIN TOTAL – OVER 6.5 WINS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +110

The number on the Commanders opened at 7.5 wins at several shops (even 8.5 at a few) but was bet down to the current O/U of 6.5 with plus money. We like the value now and will bet Washington Over 6.5 wins and would even consider Over 7.5 wins at plus +175. Washington has decided to start Sam Howell at quarterback after a failed experiment with Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz in 2022. The Commanders won 8 games last season with a passing offense that was 21st in the NFL in yards per game and was 28th in passing DVOA. Howell will be an upgrade at that position if he plays as well as he did in the preseason where he was28 of 37, 75% completion rate for 265 yards with 3 TD’s and zero interceptions. Washington allowed just 20.2PPG last season which ranked 8th best in the NFL. The Commanders allowed 5.2 Yards Per Play which was 10th best in the league and were 3rd overall in Yards Per Game allowed at 304.6YPG. Teams had a very tough time sustaining drives against the Commanders as they allowed foes to convert 3rd downs at a 31.90% which was best in the league. Teams had a tough time scoring TD’s in the Red Zone against the Commanders as they finished the 2022 season ranked 9th best in the NFL at 51.92%. Washington relied heavily on their running game with the 4th most rushing attempts in the league at 31.6. They averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game, which was 12th most. Granted, the Commanders play in the very tough NFC East, but they have a great defense, an upgrade at the QB position and should benefit from more fans support this season with Dan Snyder out as owner. Washington faces Arizona, Denver, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Giants in the first seven weeks of the season and other than Buffalo and Philly they are all very winnable games. Over 6.5 wins for the Washington Commanders in the NFC East prediction.

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  • Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS -108 – McLaurin has produced over 3,300 total receiving yards in three combined seasons and is only 1 of ten players to accomplish this impressive feat. His TD production is low considering the yardage, but he has caught 4, 5 and 5 TD’s in his last three seasons. His Red Zone targets have also been low considering his overall usage, but we are betting those change with new QB Sam Howell under center.

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