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NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850

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NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850)

As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their starting 5 which hurt them throughout the regular season as they lacked depth. Now Aaron Gordon and his 16PPG and 6RPG is back on the floor, along with Cam Johnson finding his stroke (43% from deep this season) which has the Nuggets poised to make a serious run at the Championship. Nikola Jokic (how isn’t he the MVP) is a triple-double machine (27.7PPG, 12.9RPG, 10.7APG) and Jamal Murray is putting up fantastic numbers this season with 25.4PPG and 7.1APG. Since the All-Star break the Nuggets have gone 19-8 SU with the 7th best Net rating in the league. The regular season injuries may have been a blessing in disguise as it forced bench players into bigger roles. That experience now gives Denver some added depth they would have been missing in this post season. To win it all you have to be successful on the road and the Nuggets were 26-15 SU awa from home this regular season with an average plus/minus of +4.7PPG. It’s going to be VERY difficult to come out of the West against either the Thunder or Spurs, but the Nuggets are capable of doing it. We won’t be making a huge investment in this – but at these longer odds we’ll make a small wager on Denver +850.

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NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425

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Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference

The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA. Could the Celtics win the Eastern Conference – yes absolutely but there isn’t value in their price at +160. The Cavs are next on the list at +370 but there’s no chance I’d invest in this team. Cleveland has been up and down more than a yo-yo and James Harden isn’t known for his “big game” prowess. The Knicks have a roster that could certainly challenge for the EC crown but Brunson and Karl Anthony Towns are too big of liabilities on the defensive end of the court.

That leaves us…

The Pistons won 60 games this season, yet nobody is talking about them as the potential NBA Champions or even the Eastern Conference Champ. Detroit had the 2nd best overall scoring differential at +8.2PPG and had the best record against the leagues top 10 teams with a 17-7 SU record. This team can lock teams down with the 2nd best defensive efficiency rating at 1.098-points per possession allowed. Despite Cade Cunningham missing extended time in the later part of the season, the Pistons were 20-9 SU after the All-Star break with the 6th best Net differential of +8.7. Detroit held opponents to 44.3% shooting on the season, 2nd lowest number in the league and had the best 3PT% defense at 34.5%. The Pistons had the 3rd best road record in the league at 28-13 SU with an average margin of victory of +5.8PPG so they have what it takes to win away from home. Detroit also had a 39-13 SU record against the rest of the Eastern Conference this season. Against the two other Eastern Conference challengers, the Celtics and Knicks, the Pistons were 3-1 against the Celtics, 3-0 versus the Knicks. This prediction is weighed heavily on the health of Cunningham and if he’s near 100% this team has a legitimate chance to come out of the East.

Current Eastern Conference Odds

Boston Celtics +160

Cleveland Cavaliers +370

Detroit Pistons +425

NY Knicks +500

Atlanta Hawks +2500

Charlotte Hornets +2500

Toronto Raptors +4500

Philadelphia 76ers +4500

Orlando Magic +7500

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NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats

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NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats!

By – ASA

So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders.

The backbone of this research is centered around efficiency ratings/rankings compiled through the regular season and is a tool I first discovered in the early 2000’s. Since then, I have seen several variations of my original work from other experts in the field, but here is the authentic version.

The average overall efficiency rating this season in the NBA was 1.160 points scored/allowed per possession. The Denver Nuggets were the most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.226 points per possession while the OKC Thunder held the best defensive efficiency rating in the league of 1.078 points allowed per/possession.  If past history tells us anything, these numbers can be extremely useful in predicting this year’s eventual NBA Champion.

This trend started in 2008-09 when the Finals featured the LA Lakers with head coach Phil Jackson and HOF’er Kobe Bryant, facing the Orlando Magic and a young Dwight Howard. The Lakers won that Finals series in dominating fashion, 4 games to 1.  The Lakers finished the regular season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency ratings (OEFF) and 6th in defensive efficiency (DEFF). Orlando had efficiency numbers that ranked them 12th in OEFF and 1st in DEFF. This was the beginning of the “efficiency” NBA Champions.

Below are the NBA Finals Champions and their overall efficiency rankings for the past 15 Championships.

NBA CHAMPIONS FROM 2008 on and OEFF/DEFF regular season efficiency rankings:

2008-09 LA Lakers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 6th)

2009-10 LA Lakers (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 4th)

2010-11 Dallas Mavericks (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 7th)

2011-12 Miami Heat (OEFF = 8th, DEFF = 4th)

2012-13 Miami Heat (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 9th)

2013-14 San Antonio Spurs (OEFF = 7th, DEFF = 3rd)

2014-15 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 2nd, DEFF = 1st)

2015-16 Cleveland Cavaliers (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 10th)

2016-17 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 2nd)

2017-18 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 11th) 

2018-19 Toronto Raptors (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 5th)

2019-20 LA Lakers Covid (OEFF = 11th, DEFF = 3rd)

2020-21 Milwaukee Bucks (OEFF = 6th, DEFF = 10th)

2021-22 Golden State Warriors (OEFF = 16th, DEFF = 2nd)

2022-23 Denver Nuggets (OEFF = 5th, DEFF = 13th)

2023-24 Boston Celtics (OEFF = 1st, DEFF = 3rd)

2024-25 Oklahoma City Thunder (OEFF = 3rd, DEFF = 1st)

2025-26 – ?

EFFICIENCY RATINGS MATTER

You can see for yourself that there have only been two teams that have won a Championship in the last seventeen years that had an (offensive efficiency) OEFF or (defensive efficiency) DEFF NOT in the top 11 for that season. It happened with the Warriors in 21-22 and Nuggets the following season 2022-23. Every team that has won a Championship in the past 17 Finals has specifically had a Defensive Efficiency ranking in the top 13 at the end of the regular season. 

Using this model (top 11 OEFF and top 13 in DEFF) to predict this year’s Champion we can eliminate everyone but the following teams: Celtics, Thunder, Knicks, Spurs, Rockets, Pistons and surprisingly, the Hornets. Minnesota was close to being a qualifier with the 12th rated OEFF and the 8th best DEFF rating. One team we didn’t mention for the Nuggets. The interesting aspect for Denver is that they have the 7th best efficiency differential overall at +5.2 as a result of their offense being so good this season.

2025-26 Regular Season Efficiency Rankings for the Math Model “Contenders”

Boston Celtics: OEFF 2nd, DEFF 4th

Oklahoma City Thunder: OEFF 7th, DEFF 1st

San Antonio Spurs: OEFF 4th, DEFF 3rd

Houston Rockets: OEFF 8th, DEFF 6th

Detroit Pistons: OEFF 10th, DEFF 2nd

NY Knicks: OEFF 3rd, DEFF 7th

Charlotte Hornets, 5th, DEFF 12th  

Whoever you decide to bet on to win it all this season you may want to consider a closer look at the OEFF/DEFF teams mentioned above.

Be sure to check out our Finals predictions and longshots in other articles here on this site.

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NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster

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NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com

With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the 80’s and 90’s was the single greatest sport to watch where winning was everything. This ramble or vent is on how little the so called ‘experts’ talk about or support Jokic as the league’s MVP. I’m a realist and a bettor and I know he’s not going to win this season, but the reality is…he’s the most valuable player in the league and it’s not as close as you think. I’ll explain below with a little help from the computers.

Current 2025-26 season records (near the end of the regular season, ~78-79 games played out of 82):

Oklahoma City Thunder: 62-16 (.795)

San Antonio Spurs: 60-19 (.759)

Denver Nuggets: 51-28 (.646)

Key player stats (per game averages and advanced metrics; all data as of the latest available):

Nikola Jokić (DEN)

PPG: 28.0 | RPG: 12.9 | APG: 10.9 | SPG: 1.4 | TOV: 3.8

PER: 32.3 (elite efficiency)

Win Shares (WS): 14.2 (with WS/48 of .315)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

PPG: 31.4 | RPG: 4.4 | APG: 6.5 | SPG: 1.4 | TOV: 2.2

PER: 31.0

Win Shares (WS): 15.0 (league leader, WS/48 of .328)

Victor Wembanyama (SAS)

PPG: 24.8 | RPG: 11.5 | APG: 3.1 | SPG: 1.0 | TOV: 2.4 | BPG: 3.1

PER: 29.5

Win Shares (WS): 9.6 (WS/48 of .254)

Simulation Method – Win Shares (WS) is the most direct metric here for estimating a player’s win contribution. It is built from box-score stats (points, rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers) plus defensive contributions, efficiency adjustments, pace, and team context. It is normalized so a replacement-level player contributes ~0 WS. PER provides supporting context on individual efficiency but is already embedded in the WS calculation. The simulation is straightforward and standard for these hypotheticals:

Estimated wins without the star ≈ current team wins − player’s WS (rounded to nearest whole win).

Losses increase by the same amount to keep total games played the same. This assumes the star’s minutes are filled by replacement-level talent (0 WS contribution). It is an estimate—real basketball has lineup synergies, chemistry, and schedule effects that WS approximates but does not perfectly capture. Remaining games (~3–4) have minimal impact given how close we are to the end of the season.

Estimated Records Without the Star Player

Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokić: ~37-42
Current: 51-28. Subtract Jokić’s 14.2 WS → ~37 wins (losses rise accordingly).
Jokić’s triple-double-level production, historic efficiency (PER 32.3), and massive WS make him the clear engine. Without him the Nuggets would still be a solid playoff-level team thanks to depth, but they drop from a top-3 West seed to a borderline play-in squad.

Oklahoma City Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: ~47-31
Current: 62-16. Subtract SGA’s 15.0 WS → ~47 wins.
SGA is the league’s WS leader and an MVP-caliber two-way force. The Thunder have excellent supporting pieces and depth, so they would remain a strong playoff team (likely still a top-4 seed in the West), but they lose their offensive engine and defensive versatility, dropping from historic pace to “very good but not elite.”

San Antonio Spurs without Victor Wembanyama: ~50-29
Current: 60-19. Subtract Wemby’s 9.6 WS → ~50 wins.
Wembanyama’s elite two-way impact (PER 29.5, massive blocks, rebounding, and growing playmaking) is huge, but the Spurs have built real supporting talent around him. Without him they would still contend for a high playoff seed, but they lose the defensive anchor and unique spacing/rim protection that makes their system special.

Bottom line: All three teams would remain competitive without their superstar (thanks to depth and coaching), but each would drop noticeably—most dramatically the Nuggets (Jokić’s WS impact is enormous relative to the team’s margin). These are data-driven estimates grounded in the exact metrics.

There is a good chance Jokic will never win another MVP even if he continues to put up these historical statistics. SGA is going to win again this year, then it will be Wemby for the forseeable future who will probably win multiple years in a row, until the voters get “Wemby-fatigue” and move on from him.

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NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets

Jokic MVP odds

Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board

As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought by voters. That number feels like a gift for bettors who actually look at the numbers instead of the narrative.

Let’s run the tape. Jokić is putting up 27.9 points per game (7th in the NBA), but he’s miles ahead of the flashier counting stats that voters love. He leads the league in rebounding at 12.9 RPG—Wembanyama is a distant 5th at 11.4. He’s also No. 1 in assists at 10.8 APG; Shai is back in 18th at 6.5. Both Jokić and Wemby have played 60-61 games. Shai has suited up for 64, yet the Serbian big man still posts the second-best PER in basketball (32.5-32.6 range), trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo—who’s played just 34-36 games and is effectively out of the conversation.

Jokić is the only player in the top tier doing everything at an elite level. He’s not just scoring—he’s orchestrating the Nuggets’ offense like a point guard in a 7-footer’s body while dominating the glass. Efficiency? Off the charts. Wins above replacement and advanced metrics back it up. Yet the betting market and media have him as a distant long shot behind SGA (31.6 PPG on a presumed top seed) and Wemby (the shiny new superstar on a Spurs team rolling at a .760 clip).

So why the disrespect? Voter fatigue is real. Jokić already has three MVPs. NBA awards historically punish repeat winners once the “new shiny toy” narrative kicks in—see the love for Wemby’s two-way explosion or SGA’s scoring explosion on what looks like the league’s best team. Denver sits at 48-28 with 6 games to play, solid but not the juggernaut OKC or San Antonio have been. Narrative > stats in MVP voting, and the story right now is “SGA carries the No. 1 seed” or “Wemby is the future.” That’s exactly why +6000 is screaming value. Jokić has been the best all-around player in the league again. He leads the NBA in rebounding and assists while posting top-10 scoring on elite efficiency. His PER sits second only to a guy who barely played half a season. If the Nuggets close strong and Jokić keeps triple-double hunting, the advanced-stat crowd (and any voter who actually watches film) will remember who’s been the most valuable night in and night out. At +6000, you’re getting 60-1 implied odds on a player who’s been the best in the league by most objective measures. That’s not a long shot—that’s a mispriced gift. If you’re betting MVP futures, the Joker at plus money this big is the play. The numbers don’t lie. The market just isn’t listening.

We won’t make a large wager on this but will make a small investment instead. It’s not about stats or who is the best player, it’s political and biased and decided by uninformed, biased sports writers.

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