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NFC South Prediction | Atlanta Falcons | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC SOUTH PREDICTION – WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC South Prediction – Atlanta Falcons – OVER 9.5 Wins (-130)

The Falcons won just 7 games last season yet their win total this year has jumped to 9.5.  We believe that is warranted and even a bit light as our projections have them winning at least 10 games.  They face the easiest schedule in the NFL according to PFF (including 9 home games) and we look for big improvement from their offense which averaged just 19 PPG last year but ranked in the top half of the NFL in YPG and YPP. 

Their offense wasn’t efficient last season averaging just 1 point for every 17.7 yards gained (29th in the NFL) but they should rank much higher in that category this year with veteran QB Kirk Cousins at the helm.  He will operate behind an offensive line that ranks in the top 5 in the NFL by most analysts and all 5 starters return from a year ago.  The offensive weapons are very good with RB Robinson, WR’s London, Mooney, and Moore to go along with TE Pitts.  This offense should be very good. 

Defensively they were decent last year ranking in the top 10 in YPP and YPG allowed and if they are just average this year, the offense should be able to outscore opponents.  Plus, new head coach Raheem Morris is a high level defensive mind so that side of the ball should be OK. 

Atlanta has terrible turnover luck last season finishing with a -12 TO margin which was 31st in the NFL.  It’s almost impossible to have a solid season in this league when your TO margin is that poor.  We expect that to be much better this year with Cousins under center after last year’s Falcon QB’s (Ridder & Heinecke) combined to throw 17 interceptions. 

The NFC South has been the worst division in football the last few years with Tampa finishing in 1st place with 8 wins (in 2022) and 9 wins (in 2023).  Besides Atlanta, there isn’t a single team in this division expect to have a winning record.  We like the Birds to take a big step this year and rule the NFC.

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Ravens vs Chiefs Preview | Sept 5th 2024 | By ASA

ASA breaks down the Ravens vs Chiefs game Thursday, Sept 5th 2024

Game Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Thursday, September 4, 2024

Kickoff: 8:20 PM EDT

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, Universo

BetMGM NFL Odds: Chiefs by 3

Series Record: Chiefs lead 8-5

Last Meeting: Chiefs won 17-10 in the AFC Championship game on January 28, 2024, in Baltimore.

The Matchup:

The NFL season kicks off with a blockbuster game as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. This contest not only opens the season but also reignites a rivalry that has seen the Chiefs dominate recent encounters, winning five of the last six games against the Ravens.

Chiefs’ Perspective:

  • Patrick Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, will be looking to start the season with a bang. His ability to extend plays and find open receivers, especially Travis Kelce, who’s on the cusp of breaking franchise records, could be crucial.
  • The Chiefs’ defense, while missing key players like L’Jarius Sneed and Charles Omenihu, will face a stern test against the Ravens’ multifaceted offense. However, with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis III leading the pass rush, they aim to disrupt Lamar Jackson.

Ravens’ Perspective:

  • Lamar Jackson, a two-time MVP, will be keen to prove his worth against Mahomes in what’s being billed as a historic matchup of multiple MVP winners in Week 1. His dual-threat capabilities, combined with the addition of RB Derrick Henry, could make the Ravens’ offense unpredictable.
  • Defensively, the Ravens led the league in sacks last season with 3.3 per game. With Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton anchoring the defense, they’ll look to contain Mahomes and limit the Chiefs’ explosive plays.

Key Matchups:

  • Lamar Jackson vs. Chiefs’ Defense: Can Jackson’s mobility and arm evade the Chiefs’ pass rush and find his receivers?
  • Patrick Mahomes vs. Ravens’ Defense: Will Mahomes’ magic find a way through one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses?
  • Ravens’ Run Game vs. Chiefs’ Run Defense: The Ravens’ ground attack against a Chiefs defense that struggled against the run last season.

Key Injuries and Absences:

  • Chiefs: WR Marquise Brown, RB Clyde-Edwards-Helaire, DE BJ Thompson, DE Charles Omenihu,
  • Ravens: LB Adisa Isaac, RB Rasheen Ali

What to Watch For:

  • **Can the Ravens’ defense replicate their AFC Championship performance and keep Mahomes in check?
  • **Will the Chiefs’ offensive line hold up against the Ravens’ formidable pass rush?
  • **The battle of the tight ends: Mark Andrews vs. Travis Kelce, both looking to make significant impacts.

This game isn’t just about bragging rights for the next season; it’s a statement game for both teams. The Ravens, with a chip on their shoulder after the AFC Championship loss, will look to prove they’re the team to beat in the AFC. Conversely, the Chiefs, under Andy Reid, aim to show that their championship window remains wide open. Expect a high-intensity, high-stakes game that could set the tone for both teams’ seasons.

This preview encapsulates the key elements of the game based on the information provided, focusing on player matchups, team dynamics, and the significance of the game in the context of the season opener.

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NFC North Prediction | Minnesota Vikings | 9-5-2024

ASA’s NFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

NFC North Prediction – Minnesota Vikings – Under 7.5 Wins (-150)

The Vikings lost 6 of their final 9 games last season after losing QB Cousins for the season with an Achilles injury.  Two of their three wins after Cousins injury came by a FG and they were outgained (YPP) in 6 of their last 7 games. 

Now with Cousins moving on to Atlanta, Minnesota will rely on journeyman QB Sam Darnold, who has a career record of 21-35 as a starter.

Defensively, they were atrocious defending the pass, which is obviously key in today’s NFL, ranking dead last in opponent completion percentage at over 70%.  They didn’t do much to upgrade the defensive backfield as their depth chart looks the same as last season with the exception of CB Griffin, who is expected to start despite playing in only 3 games with Carolina last season and has been on the decline since 2019. 

The struggling secondary won’t get much help from the defensive line which ranks 30th heading into the season per PFF.  This team may have to score in bunches to win games this year and we just don’t see that happening with their QB situation. 

The schedule won’t do them any favors either.  The Vikes will be facing the 5th most difficult schedule and their early slate is brutal.  After facing the NY Giants on the road to start the season (should be a pick-em type game), Minnesota faces San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay, NY Jets, and Detroit in succession and they’ll be underdogs in each of those games. 

The Vikings won 7 games last season and we just don’t see an improvement this year.  Under is the call.   

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AFC West Prediction | Denver Broncos Under 5.5 |

ASA’s AFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

ASA AFC West Prediction – Denver Broncos – UNDER 5.5 Wins (-115)

How are the Broncos going to score enough points to keep up in games?  They might have the worst group of skill position players in the NFL and it starts at QB.  Jarred Stidham, Zach Wilson, and rookie Bo Nix are battling it out to see who gets the nod as the starting signal caller.  Stidham and Wilson both have a career passing completion percentage below 60% and they’ve combined to throw more interceptions than TD’s.  Rookie Bo Nix will be the Week #1 starter and we are not overly confident in his ability to lead this Broncos team to 6+ wins.

Denver lost top WR Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland and starting RB Williams dropped off big time last season (just 3.5 YPC) after a serious knee injury in 2022.  Head coach Sean Payton said he wants to run the ball more to protect his inexperienced, and honestly just not very good, QB’s. 

The problem is, they weren’t great at running the ball last year (21st in YPC) and didn’t really do much in the off season to improve on that.  The Denver offense was just 1 of 7 in the NFL that didn’t have a player with 1,000 yards rushing or receiving and they’ll be worse on that side of the ball this year. 

The defense will most likely be improved but that won’t take much as they finished 27th in PPG allowed and 29th in YPG allowed. 

The Broncos face the 8th most difficult schedule this season (per PFF) and have only 8 home games.  They’ve always had a solid home field advantage, but on the road they have not had a winning record since 2015 (16-41 road record the last 7 years) and we project them to be underdogs in all of their road tilts this season. 

Believe it or not, the Broncos have averaged only 6 wins per season over the last 7 years and we project this to be one of their worst teams during that stretch.  5 or fewer wins for Denver this year is likely.

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AFC North Prediction | Steelers Under 8.5 | 9-4-2024

ASA’s AFC NORTH WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

AFC North Prediction – Pittsburgh Steelers – UNDER 8.5 Wins (-140)

We’re going against the grain a bit here as the Steelers have never finished with a losing record under head coach Mike Tomlin.  We think this is the year that streak ends. 

Truth be told, that run really should have ended last season.  Pittsburgh finished with a 10-7 record a year ago but they ended the season with a negative point differential, they were outgained on the year both YPG and YPP, and had fewer rushing and passing yards than their opponents.  They finished 9-2 in games decided by a TD or less and while they went 5-1 in NFC North play, 4 of those 5 wins they faced back up QB’s vs Cincinnati (both games), Baltimore and Cleveland.  Those successes will be very difficult to duplicate in back to back years.  As will their turnover margin of +11 which was the 3rd best in the NFL last year. 

To say they were fortunate to get to 10 wins is an understatement as their projected win total based on point differential and key stats was under 8.  The Steelers did bring in 2 new signal callers in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields.  The problem is, Wilson is on the downside of his career (13th year) and wasn’t great the last 2 season in Denver while Fields has never lived up to the hype with just a 10-28 record as a starter. 

The defense allowing just 19.7 PPG last season but their YPG (21st) and YPP (23rd) numbers were not in line with their scoring defense so again, we feel they were fortunate on that side of the ball. 

Pittsburgh just happens to have the most difficult schedule in the NFL this season based on opponents expected win totals.  They better get off to a red hot start if they expect to get to 9 wins this season as they back half of their schedule (final 8 games) is brutal.  A fast start might be tough with a new offensive coordinator, new QB, and they play 4 of their first 6 games on the road.  We think an 8 win season for Pittsburgh would be really solid this year and that still lands them under this total .

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