Tag: NFL predictions today

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Thursday NFL Player Prop Bets | Eagles vs Giants | Oct 9 2025

ASA has two Thursday NFL Player Prop Bets | Eagles vs Giants Predictions

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards

The Giants defense will have a tough time stopping Barkley tonight in his return to New York City. The Men in Blue allow the 24th most passing yards overall per game at 237.2 with running backs accounting for 31 of those yards. The lead running back for Giants opponents have gone OVER their receiving prop in 3 of the last four games. Barkley has been OVER this stat line in 3 of five games this season with an average of 25.6 receiving yards per game. Barkley should see at least 4 targets (also betting OVER 2.5 targets) in this game and needs just one decent play to get OVER this number.

Giants QB Jaxson Dart UNDER 177.5 Passing Yards

The Giants WR injuries are taking a toll with Nabers and Slayton both out, leaving Wan’Dale Robinson as his best option. Dart is averaging just 5.2 yards per completion with 313 total passing yards in two games. He has a QBR of 43.6 and we don’t anticipate the Giants having him drop back and throw 40 times as he did last week against the Saints. Philadelphia has average or below passing defensive statistics, but they’ve also faced some of the league’s better QB’s and passing attacks. With Philadelphia dominating the time of possession in this game we don’t see the Giants getting many opportunities offensively.

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NFL Bets | Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Bet | June 18 2025

Steelers Aaron Rodgers

NFL Futures Betting Prediction: Why the Pittsburgh Steelers Will Finish UNDER 8.5 Wins in 2025

By ASAwins

As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team generating plenty of buzz, particularly with the high-profile signing of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, despite their consistent success under head coach Mike Tomlin, there are compelling reasons to believe the Steelers will fall short of their 8.5-win total in the 2025 season. This article dives into the data, schedule challenges, and key roster changes to support a futures betting prediction of UNDER 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh.

A Closer Look at Last Season’s Performance

The Steelers posted a 10-7 record in the 2024 season, a testament to Mike Tomlin’s (has never had an under .500 season….gulp) ability to squeeze wins out of a roster with clear limitations. However, a deeper look reveals that their success was somewhat inflated. Five of their 10 victories came against teams with losing records: the 3-win Cleveland Browns, 3-win New York Giants, 4-win Las Vegas Raiders, and 5-win New York Jets. These wins accounted for half of their total on the season. Against stronger teams, the Steelers were less consistent, which raises concerns heading into a much tougher 2025 schedule.

Advanced metrics further highlight the Steelers’ middling performance. According to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings, Pittsburgh finished the 2024 season ranked 15th overall, with a 19th-ranked offense and an 8th-ranked defense. While their defense was a strength, their offense struggled to find consistency, a recurring issue that may not be fully resolved with their new quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers: An Upgrade or a Risk?

The biggest offseason move for Pittsburgh was signing four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to a one-year deal after his release from the New York Jets. On paper, Rodgers brings an elite pedigree, having thrown for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2024. However, his performance was far from vintage, ranking 25th in QBR (48.0) and posting a completion percentage over expectation of -5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. These numbers reflect a quarterback still recovering from a torn Achilles that sidelined him for nearly all of 2023, raising questions about his ability to return to MVP form at age 41.

Is Rodgers an upgrade over 2024 starters Russell Wilson and Justin Fields? It’s a mixed bag. Wilson and Fields struggled to elevate Pittsburgh’s offense, which ranked 19th in DVOA, but Rodgers’ 2024 performance suggests he may not be a significant improvement. His reluctance to adapt to play-action-heavy schemes, a staple of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system, could create friction. Additionally, Rodgers’ chemistry with new top receiver D.K. Metcalf is uncertain, as Metcalf’s less precise route-running may clash with Rodgers’ demand for perfection.

While Rodgers offers some upside, his age, injury history, and recent performance make him a risky bet to transform Pittsburgh’s offense into a top-tier unit. The Steelers’ offensive line, which struggled in 2024, also poses a concern for Rodgers’ health and effectiveness. If he can’t stay upright, Pittsburgh’s ceiling is limited.

A Brutal 2025 Schedule

The Steelers face a significantly tougher slate in 2025, which is a major factor in this UNDER prediction. Their opponents include the NFC North and AFC East, two divisions loaded with top tier teams. Based on 2024 DVOA ratings, Pittsburgh projects to face the fifth-hardest set of opposing offenses, a stark contrast to the 10th-hardest schedule they faced last season.

From Week 7 to Week 11 alone, the Steelers play four games against teams that ranked 12th or better in offensive DVOA in 2024, including two matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, who boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks. The back half of their schedule includes daunting games against Baltimore (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, and Green Bay—all teams with top-tier offenses in 2024. This brutal stretch could expose Pittsburgh’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly if their offense struggles to keep pace.

Pittsburgh’s early schedule is more favorable, with their first five games against teams ranked 15th or worse in offensive DVOA last season. However, even if they start strong—say, 3-2 or 4-1—the gauntlet from Week 7 onward makes it difficult to maintain momentum.

Defensive Concerns and Turnover Dependency

Pittsburgh’s defense was a bright spot in 2024, ranking 8th in DVOA and excelling at forcing turnovers (27 takeaways, tied for 8th in the NFL). However, their success was heavily reliant on opportunistic play. When excluding turnovers, the Steelers ranked 18th in defensive EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate, revealing a unit that struggled to consistently stall drives without takeaways.

Facing a tougher set of offenses in 2025, Pittsburgh’s defense may not generate turnovers at the same rate, especially against disciplined teams like Buffalo and Green Bay. The loss of key players like left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and the trade of George Pickens for D.K. Metcalf and Robert Woods don’t inspire confidence in significant offensive improvement, which could leave the defense on the field for longer stretches.

Final Prediction

The Steelers are likely to hover around .500, finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Their early schedule provides opportunities to bank wins, but the brutal second half, combined with offensive uncertainties and a turnover-dependent defense, makes surpassing 8.5 wins unlikely. Data and scheduling suggest Pittsburgh will struggle to replicate last season’s success.

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Nov 17th 2024

NFL Player Prop Bets – Free prop bets for Sunday, Nov 17th 2024

Ravens Lamar Jackson over 42.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Jackson has surpassed 45 rushing yards in seven of his ten games this season. In the previous two weeks he has not needed to use his legs as much, shredding the Broncos and Bengals in the midst of throwing 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He matches up against the Steelers and their second ranked scoring defense on the road this Sunday. A better defense actually suits Jackson’s rushing prop as he will be forced to run more rather than get what he wants from the pocket. Lamar has only played in 2 of the previous 6 games against Pittsburgh, and he rushed for 55 and 45 yards respectively. Expect Jackson to return to his scrambling ways in a huge divisional matchup in the highest projected point total of the weekend. 

49ers Christian McCaffrey Over 27.5 Rec Yards (-120)

CMC was finally back last week and totalled 107 yards with 68 receiving yards on seven targets. With such involvement in the passing game, especially after missing every game so far this season, McCaffrey will see plenty of volume once again. Another hotly contested division game has the second highest O/U of week 11. Seattle has a middle of the road defense but can fill it up on offense. Points should be plentiful and if CMC plays 88% of the running back snaps again, it’s hard to imagine he does not amass his receiving total. 

Dolphins Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+120) 

Hill caught his first touchdown since week one in last week’s win vs the Rams. Since Tua has been back, the Dolphins offense went from abysmal to just mediocre. With so many weapons and Tyreek’s immense talent it’s only a matter of time before Miami gets back on track. Hill had so many explosive plays and 13 TDs last season. Las Vegas ranks 30th in points allowed in 2024 and if Reek is ever going to have a breakout game, its going to be after a big win while gaining chemistry back with his quarterback against a bad team. Hill has nine targets the past two games combined which is unacceptable. The squeaky wheel treatment better be in store for the NFLs fastest man. 

Colts Jonathon Taylor – Over 81.5 Rush Yards (-110)

Taylor has been over this rushing total in 5 of seven games this season and with the QB change back to Richardson, the Colts should feed Taylor and pound the football against a suspect Jets D. Taylor averages over this number on the season and is averaging 18 carries per game so we know he’ll get his share of carries. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and anchor an offense that averages 4.7 yards per rush, 9th most in the NFL. The Jets defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing 134 rushing yards per game 25th most in the NFL. Opposing teams have run the football on average 31 times per game against the Jets, 3rd highest number in the league.

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