Tag: NFL betting advice

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NFL Chargers vs Lions Prediction | July 31 2025

ASA NFL play on LA Chargers (FIRST HALF) +5 vs. Detroit Lions, 8pm ET

The NFL season is officially here with the Hall of Fame game tonight between the Chargers and Lions. We are going to side with the Chargers in this game with our strongest bet on the 1st half with Los Angeles. We will focus on the defenses as they have the advantage early on in the preseason. The Chargers gave up 5.4 Yards Per Play defensively a year ago and 18.5PPG which was the 2nd lowest number in the NFL. In comparison the Lions allowed 21.5PPG and 5.8YPPL (29th). Detroit lost their Offensive and Defensive coordinators so expect a very vanilla gameplan tonight as new systems are being put in place. Neither team will play many starters at all including their franchise QB’s in Herbert and Goff. We like the Chargers backup QB better with Trey Lance who is schedule to play the first half of this game. Lance provides mobility which will lead to several big plays with his feet rather than his arm. The Lions are going to give Hendon Hooker a long look at QB to see if he can be Goff’s primary  backup. We like Lance with more NFL experience to outshine Hooker and the Lions in this one.

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NY Giants Prediction | Win Total | Under 5.5 -120

NYGiants

ASAwins NFL New York Giants Betting Prediction:

We are betting UNDER 5.5 Wins for the New York Giants – 2025. The New York Giants enter the 2025 NFL season with significant challenges on both sides of the football. They also face a difficult schedule and a lame-duck coach in Brian Daboll. It all adds up to UNDER 5.5 wins and is one of our NFL Future bets for the 2025 season.

2024 Performance: The Giants finished 28th in team DVOA last season, reflecting poor efficiency on both sides of the football. Their offense ranked 30th in yards per play (4.7), while the defense allowed 5.6 yards per play (24th). This contributed to the 4th-highest scoring differential of minus -8.4 points per game.

Quarterback Concerns: Russell Wilson, now the Giants’ QB, is a shadow of his former self. At 36, his 2024 stats with the Steelers (2,721 yards, 15 TDs, 8 INTs, 81.7 passer rating) showed a decline. Moreover, his fit in a struggling Giants offense raises doubts about a quick turnaround for the G-Men.

Tough Schedule: The Giants face a brutal early slate, with six of their first eight opponents having made the playoffs in 2024. This includes two games against the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles. A realistic 1-14 start is possible, with a potential road win at New Orleans on October 5th (Week 5) as the lone bright spot. The Giants may be Underdogs in all 17 games this season. Their best chances to be favored are at New Orleans and at Las Vegas, but even then they may be slight dogs in both games.

Coaching and Decline: Under head coach Brian Daboll, the Giants have declined from 9 wins in 2022 to 6 in 2023, and just 3 in 2024. This signals a steady downward trajectory with no clear signs of improvement.

Offensive Line Weakness: Ranked 23rd-28th in 2024 in most key O-line categories, the Giants will have a tough time running the football in 2025. They will also struggle with protecting their aging QB. New York allowed 48 sacks last season and a pressure rate of 38.4% (28th). The Giants were 27th in run-block win rate and averaged just 4.2 yards per rush (18th).

The Giants’ poor 2024 performance, a declining roster, and one of the league’s toughest schedules will be tough to overcome for the Big Blue. A 1-14 start is plausible, with wins potentially limited to New Orleans and Las Vegas. We could see this Giants team totaling 3-4 wins at best. The UNDER 5.5 wins is an attractive bet because the team’s offensive inefficiencies, defensive vulnerabilities, and lack of momentum under Daboll suggest they won’t reach six victories.

Bet: UNDER 5.5 Total Wins for the New York Giants.

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NFL Bets | Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Bet | June 18 2025

Steelers Aaron Rodgers

NFL Futures Betting Prediction: Why the Pittsburgh Steelers Will Finish UNDER 8.5 Wins in 2025

By ASAwins

As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team generating plenty of buzz, particularly with the high-profile signing of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, despite their consistent success under head coach Mike Tomlin, there are compelling reasons to believe the Steelers will fall short of their 8.5-win total in the 2025 season. This article dives into the data, schedule challenges, and key roster changes to support a futures betting prediction of UNDER 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh.

A Closer Look at Last Season’s Performance

The Steelers posted a 10-7 record in the 2024 season, a testament to Mike Tomlin’s (has never had an under .500 season….gulp) ability to squeeze wins out of a roster with clear limitations. However, a deeper look reveals that their success was somewhat inflated. Five of their 10 victories came against teams with losing records: the 3-win Cleveland Browns, 3-win New York Giants, 4-win Las Vegas Raiders, and 5-win New York Jets. These wins accounted for half of their total on the season. Against stronger teams, the Steelers were less consistent, which raises concerns heading into a much tougher 2025 schedule.

Advanced metrics further highlight the Steelers’ middling performance. According to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings, Pittsburgh finished the 2024 season ranked 15th overall, with a 19th-ranked offense and an 8th-ranked defense. While their defense was a strength, their offense struggled to find consistency, a recurring issue that may not be fully resolved with their new quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers: An Upgrade or a Risk?

The biggest offseason move for Pittsburgh was signing four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to a one-year deal after his release from the New York Jets. On paper, Rodgers brings an elite pedigree, having thrown for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2024. However, his performance was far from vintage, ranking 25th in QBR (48.0) and posting a completion percentage over expectation of -5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. These numbers reflect a quarterback still recovering from a torn Achilles that sidelined him for nearly all of 2023, raising questions about his ability to return to MVP form at age 41.

Is Rodgers an upgrade over 2024 starters Russell Wilson and Justin Fields? It’s a mixed bag. Wilson and Fields struggled to elevate Pittsburgh’s offense, which ranked 19th in DVOA, but Rodgers’ 2024 performance suggests he may not be a significant improvement. His reluctance to adapt to play-action-heavy schemes, a staple of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system, could create friction. Additionally, Rodgers’ chemistry with new top receiver D.K. Metcalf is uncertain, as Metcalf’s less precise route-running may clash with Rodgers’ demand for perfection.

While Rodgers offers some upside, his age, injury history, and recent performance make him a risky bet to transform Pittsburgh’s offense into a top-tier unit. The Steelers’ offensive line, which struggled in 2024, also poses a concern for Rodgers’ health and effectiveness. If he can’t stay upright, Pittsburgh’s ceiling is limited.

A Brutal 2025 Schedule

The Steelers face a significantly tougher slate in 2025, which is a major factor in this UNDER prediction. Their opponents include the NFC North and AFC East, two divisions loaded with top tier teams. Based on 2024 DVOA ratings, Pittsburgh projects to face the fifth-hardest set of opposing offenses, a stark contrast to the 10th-hardest schedule they faced last season.

From Week 7 to Week 11 alone, the Steelers play four games against teams that ranked 12th or better in offensive DVOA in 2024, including two matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, who boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks. The back half of their schedule includes daunting games against Baltimore (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, and Green Bay—all teams with top-tier offenses in 2024. This brutal stretch could expose Pittsburgh’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly if their offense struggles to keep pace.

Pittsburgh’s early schedule is more favorable, with their first five games against teams ranked 15th or worse in offensive DVOA last season. However, even if they start strong—say, 3-2 or 4-1—the gauntlet from Week 7 onward makes it difficult to maintain momentum.

Defensive Concerns and Turnover Dependency

Pittsburgh’s defense was a bright spot in 2024, ranking 8th in DVOA and excelling at forcing turnovers (27 takeaways, tied for 8th in the NFL). However, their success was heavily reliant on opportunistic play. When excluding turnovers, the Steelers ranked 18th in defensive EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate, revealing a unit that struggled to consistently stall drives without takeaways.

Facing a tougher set of offenses in 2025, Pittsburgh’s defense may not generate turnovers at the same rate, especially against disciplined teams like Buffalo and Green Bay. The loss of key players like left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and the trade of George Pickens for D.K. Metcalf and Robert Woods don’t inspire confidence in significant offensive improvement, which could leave the defense on the field for longer stretches.

Final Prediction

The Steelers are likely to hover around .500, finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Their early schedule provides opportunities to bank wins, but the brutal second half, combined with offensive uncertainties and a turnover-dependent defense, makes surpassing 8.5 wins unlikely. Data and scheduling suggest Pittsburgh will struggle to replicate last season’s success.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs Atlanta Falcons Predictions | September 22nd 2024

Chiefs vs Falcons preview

NFL Game Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. Kansas City Chiefs – September 22, 2024

ASAWins Team breaks down the Sunday Night game.

Chiefs vs Falcons Prediction Game Details:

  • Date: Sunday, September 22, 2024
  • Time: 8:20 PM EST
  • Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA

Betting Odds:

  • Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -3, Atlanta Falcons +3
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Moneyline: Chiefs -170, Falcons +145

Injury Updates:

Kansas City Chiefs:

  • Isiah Pacheco is out with an ankle injury, which could significantly impact the Chiefs’ running game.
  • Hollywood Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire are also sidelined, with both on the Injured Reserve, severely limiting the Chiefs’ offensive options in the receiving and running games.

Atlanta Falcons:

  • Nate Landman and Milo Eifler are out, impacting the linebacker depth for the Falcons.

Game Analysis:

Chiefs’ Offense: Despite injuries, Patrick Mahomes continues to lead one of the most dynamic offenses in the NFL. With Rashee Rice stepping up in the absence of top receivers, the Chiefs might lean heavily on Rice and Travis Kelce for aerial dominance. The running game, however, faces a significant challenge with Pacheco out, possibly relying more on Carson Steele and Samaje Perine to manage the ground game.

Falcons’ Offense: The Falcons come off a dramatic victory against the Eagles, where Kirk Cousins showed resilience, throwing for 396 yards. Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier have been pivotal in the run game, providing a balanced attack that could exploit the Chiefs’ defense, which has shown vulnerabilities against strong running teams.

Defensive Matchup: The Chiefs’ defense, despite missing key players, has managed to keep games competitive. However, their performance against the run might be tested by the Falcons’ robust running backs. Conversely, the Falcons’ defense needs to contain Mahomes, which is easier said than done, but their recent performance suggests they might have a strategy to at least keep the game close.

Key Betting Insights:

  • The Chiefs, as road favorites of 3 or more points following a win, have not covered the spread effectively in recent years. The Falcons though have been an uninspiring home dog with a 6-7 ATS in that role since 2020.
  • The over/under set at 46.5 reflects expectations of a high-scoring affair, considering both teams’ offensive capabilities, though the Chiefs’ injuries might suggest a lower scoring game if their offense struggles.

Fantasy and Player Insights:

  • Rashee Rice and Travis Kelce for the Chiefs, along with Bijan Robinson and Kyle Pitts for the Falcons, are expected to be key fantasy performers. However, Kirk Cousins might be a riskier start given the Chiefs’ defensive reputation.

Chiefs vs Falcons prediction Conclusion: This game pits the offensive prowess of the Chiefs against an improving Falcons team looking to make a statement. This game could come down to whomever has the football last. The over/under might lean towards the under given the injury situation, but with Mahomes under center, one can never count out a high-scoring affair. This game could go either way, making it one of the must-watch games of Week 3.

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NFL MVP Odds | A QB longshot | 9-3-24 | By ASA

NFL MVP Odds – QB Jared Goff Detroit Lions +$2500 – By ASA

Jared Goff’s odds for winning the NFL MVP in 2024 have been a topic of interest among sports analysts and bettors, reflecting a mix of skepticism and optimism based on his performance trajectory and the Lions’ team success. At a higher price point we like Goff as a potential longshot to win the MVP in 2024.

Have you looked at the Lions schedule this season? Detroit and QB Goff will play in a controlled environment or Dome in 14 of their seventeen games this season. Goff and the Lions were 9-3 SU when playing in a Dome last season. Goff threw for over 4,400 yards in 2022 with 29 TD’s to 7 INT’s in leading Detroit to a 9-8 record. Last season, Goff threw for 4,575 yards (2nd most in league) with a 30/12 TD/INT ration in helping the Lions for a 14-6 record and a loss in the NFC Championship game.

Goff’s career statistics in domes show a higher completion percentage, better passer rating, and a more favorable touchdown to interception ratio. When playing indoors, Goff has a 67.4% completion rate, with 92 touchdowns and 32 interceptions over 55 games.

Conversely, his outdoor games statistics are less impressive, with a completion percentage around 62.2%, 101 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions across 71 games.

Goff’s MVP odds have been listed at various points between +2200 and +2500, indicating he’s seen as a dark horse candidate but with significant value for bettors if he performs exceptionally.

Goff has shown improvement and consistency, leading the Lions to two straight winning seasons. His stats from previous seasons, like throwing for over 4,400 yards with a high completion percentage and a favorable touchdown to interception ratio, underline his capability at the helm of an offense. The Lions’ success, particularly if they secure a high seed in the playoffs, could significantly boost Goff’s MVP case, given the award’s tendency to favor quarterbacks from top-seeded teams.

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