Point Train Free NFL Bet @NY Giants +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT – Dec 21 2025
This has been an automatic bet for us the last few weeks and the results have been solid (Ravens last week).
We have been tracking a few different betting markets at a public sportsbook and a sharp book and when the numbers don’t align – the results have been quite good.
The biggest betting indicator using this strategy is on the Giants this week plus the points at home against the Vikings.
Should the Vikings really be a road favorite here?
New York actually played better than the final score a week ago in their loss to the Commanders. NYG 384 total yards at 6.9YPPL – held Washington to 340 total yards 6.0YPPL.
Minnesota is off a win in Dallas but were outgained by nearly 100 total yards.
Yes, the G-men lost last week at home but take a look at their other home losses – Packers, Niners and Chiefs. They have beaten the Chargers and Eagles on this field this season.
It’s ugly for a reason – bet the Giants!
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#267 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona Cardinals +7 over Seattle Seahawks, Sunday at 4 PM ET
The Cards are on a nice little roll since Jacoby Brissett took over at QB. They have covered 3 straight and took 2 of the NFL’s best teams (Indy and Green Bay) to the wire in close losses. They’re catching Seattle a bit overvalued right now and at the top of their market in our opinion. We’ve been pro Seahawks all season and won with them on a few occasions but this is a fade spot. They’ve won and covered 6 of their last 7 games and this is just the 2nd time this season they’ve been favored by more than 3.5 points. To put this number in perspective, the Seahawks were favored by the same number (-7 or -7.5) at home vs New Orleans a few weeks ago. The Cards sit 12 spots ahead of the Saints via the DVOA metric yet we’re getting the same number. Seattle is 2-2 at home this season (4-0 on the road) and their numbers here at Lumen Field as they average 53 fewer YPG and almost a full YPP less (0.8). Three of their four home games have been decided by 1 score. Since Brissett took over, the Arizona offense is averaging 357 YPG, 26 PPG, and they lead the league in 3rd down conversion rate during that 3 game stretch. Prior to that with Kyler Murray at QB, the Cardinals were averaging 288 YPG and 20.6 PPG. We think Arizona does enough to hang around here and cover this inflated number. Take the points.
Patriots – QB Drake Maye OVER 232.5 Passing Yards vs. Saints
Drake Maye just torched the Bills for 273 yards in a wild upset win last week, and he’s cleared 232.5 passing yards in 3 of his 5 starts this season—his two misses? Barely under by 3 yards in Week 2, and then they blew out the Panthers in Week 4 and sat on the lead. The Saints’ pass D ranks 23rd in opponents’ completion % (69.54%) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.8). They don’t sack QBs much either, averaging just 2.4 per game, so Maye should have time to sling it. Maye’s the 2nd-most accurate QB in the NFL at 73.38% completions, especially now that he’s clicking with Stefon Diggs for 100+ yards the last two weeks straight.
Chargers – QB Justin Herbert OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards vs Dolphins
The Chargers are down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s in Haskins and Vidal so expect Herbert to pick up the rushing slack on broken plays. Herbert has rushed for 24 or more yards in 4 of five games this season and coming off a 60-yard game against the Commanders. Miami ranks last in the league against the run allowing 174 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins give up 5.6 yards per rush (31st). They simply don’t win in the trenches. Miami has allowed an average of 32.8 rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season and Herberts willingness to run makes this a very attractive prop bet Sunday.
ASA NFL play on LA Chargers (FIRST HALF) +5 vs. Detroit Lions, 8pm ET
The NFL season is officially here with the Hall of Fame game tonight between the Chargers and Lions. We are going to side with the Chargers in this game with our strongest bet on the 1st half with Los Angeles. We will focus on the defenses as they have the advantage early on in the preseason. The Chargers gave up 5.4 Yards Per Play defensively a year ago and 18.5PPG which was the 2nd lowest number in the NFL. In comparison the Lions allowed 21.5PPG and 5.8YPPL (29th). Detroit lost their Offensive and Defensive coordinators so expect a very vanilla gameplan tonight as new systems are being put in place. Neither team will play many starters at all including their franchise QB’s in Herbert and Goff. We like the Chargers backup QB better with Trey Lance who is schedule to play the first half of this game. Lance provides mobility which will lead to several big plays with his feet rather than his arm. The Lions are going to give Hendon Hooker a long look at QB to see if he can be Goff’s primary backup. We like Lance with more NFL experience to outshine Hooker and the Lions in this one.
ASA WNBA free bet today on NY Liberty +3.5 at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET These two teams have played similar strength of schedules and have Net ratings of +5.3 for Dallas and +4.6 for the Liberty. New York has played much of the season without perennial All-Star Sabrina Ionescu, who is back from injury and… Read more: WNBA free bet today | Liberty at Wings | July 20
ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings -6.5 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 8pm ET The Wings are playing well right now with a 6-3 overall record which includes winning 4 of their last five. In this current stretch of games, they have two solid wins over the Aces and Liberty and the lone loss was respectable considering… Read more: ASA WNBA Free Bet – Mercury vs Wings – June 11 2026
ASA Free NHL bet: Dallas Stars -125 vs. Minnesota Wild 8pm ET Dallas returns home in a tied 2-2 series with every reason to seize momentum tonight. Coming off a sloppy overtime defeat, the Stars have proven time and again they respond well to setbacks and play their strongest hockey with extra preparation time.The Stars… Read more: NHL Free Bet | Wild vs Stars | April 28 2026
ASA Free NBA player prop OVER 18.5 POINTS for CJ McCollum Hawks vs Knicks McCollum continues to see a high usage rate for the Hawks and is one of the few vets on this team with big game experience. He is coming off a 26-point scoring night in Game 1 of this series on 11… Read more: NBA Player Prop bet | Over 18.5 Points | CJ McCollum – Hawks
NBA free player prop bet Game 1 Blazers vs Spurs, April 19th ASA NBA player prop bet – Spurs De’Aaron Fox OVER 23.5 Points+Assists Of the Spurs “big 3” in San Antonio of Wembanyama, Castle and Fox, only De’Aaron Fox has playoff experience, and we like the vet to have a big game here. In… Read more: NBA free player prop bet | De’Aaron Fox | Spurs
NFL Futures Betting Prediction: Why the Pittsburgh Steelers Will Finish UNDER 8.5 Wins in 2025
By ASAwins
As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team generating plenty of buzz, particularly with the high-profile signing of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, despite their consistent success under head coach Mike Tomlin, there are compelling reasons to believe the Steelers will fall short of their 8.5-win total in the 2025 season. This article dives into the data, schedule challenges, and key roster changes to support a futures betting prediction of UNDER 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh.
A Closer Look at Last Season’s Performance
The Steelers posted a 10-7 record in the 2024 season, a testament to Mike Tomlin’s (has never had an under .500 season….gulp) ability to squeeze wins out of a roster with clear limitations. However, a deeper look reveals that their success was somewhat inflated. Five of their 10 victories came against teams with losing records: the 3-win Cleveland Browns, 3-win New York Giants, 4-win Las Vegas Raiders, and 5-win New York Jets. These wins accounted for half of their total on the season. Against stronger teams, the Steelers were less consistent, which raises concerns heading into a much tougher 2025 schedule.
Advanced metrics further highlight the Steelers’ middling performance. According to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings, Pittsburgh finished the 2024 season ranked 15th overall, with a 19th-ranked offense and an 8th-ranked defense. While their defense was a strength, their offense struggled to find consistency, a recurring issue that may not be fully resolved with their new quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers: An Upgrade or a Risk?
The biggest offseason move for Pittsburgh was signing four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to a one-year deal after his release from the New York Jets. On paper, Rodgers brings an elite pedigree, having thrown for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2024. However, his performance was far from vintage, ranking 25th in QBR (48.0) and posting a completion percentage over expectation of -5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. These numbers reflect a quarterback still recovering from a torn Achilles that sidelined him for nearly all of 2023, raising questions about his ability to return to MVP form at age 41.
Is Rodgers an upgrade over 2024 starters Russell Wilson and Justin Fields? It’s a mixed bag. Wilson and Fields struggled to elevate Pittsburgh’s offense, which ranked 19th in DVOA, but Rodgers’ 2024 performance suggests he may not be a significant improvement. His reluctance to adapt to play-action-heavy schemes, a staple of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system, could create friction. Additionally, Rodgers’ chemistry with new top receiver D.K. Metcalf is uncertain, as Metcalf’s less precise route-running may clash with Rodgers’ demand for perfection.
While Rodgers offers some upside, his age, injury history, and recent performance make him a risky bet to transform Pittsburgh’s offense into a top-tier unit. The Steelers’ offensive line, which struggled in 2024, also poses a concern for Rodgers’ health and effectiveness. If he can’t stay upright, Pittsburgh’s ceiling is limited.
A Brutal 2025 Schedule
The Steelers face a significantly tougher slate in 2025, which is a major factor in this UNDER prediction. Their opponents include the NFC North and AFC East, two divisions loaded with top tier teams. Based on 2024 DVOA ratings, Pittsburgh projects to face the fifth-hardest set of opposing offenses, a stark contrast to the 10th-hardest schedule they faced last season.
From Week 7 to Week 11 alone, the Steelers play four games against teams that ranked 12th or better in offensive DVOA in 2024, including two matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, who boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks. The back half of their schedule includes daunting games against Baltimore (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, and Green Bay—all teams with top-tier offenses in 2024. This brutal stretch could expose Pittsburgh’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly if their offense struggles to keep pace.
Pittsburgh’s early schedule is more favorable, with their first five games against teams ranked 15th or worse in offensive DVOA last season. However, even if they start strong—say, 3-2 or 4-1—the gauntlet from Week 7 onward makes it difficult to maintain momentum.
Defensive Concerns and Turnover Dependency
Pittsburgh’s defense was a bright spot in 2024, ranking 8th in DVOA and excelling at forcing turnovers (27 takeaways, tied for 8th in the NFL). However, their success was heavily reliant on opportunistic play. When excluding turnovers, the Steelers ranked 18th in defensive EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate, revealing a unit that struggled to consistently stall drives without takeaways.
Facing a tougher set of offenses in 2025, Pittsburgh’s defense may not generate turnovers at the same rate, especially against disciplined teams like Buffalo and Green Bay. The loss of key players like left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and the trade of George Pickens for D.K. Metcalf and Robert Woods don’t inspire confidence in significant offensive improvement, which could leave the defense on the field for longer stretches.
Final Prediction
The Steelers are likely to hover around .500, finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Their early schedule provides opportunities to bank wins, but the brutal second half, combined with offensive uncertainties and a turnover-dependent defense, makes surpassing 8.5 wins unlikely. Data and scheduling suggest Pittsburgh will struggle to replicate last season’s success.
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ASA WNBA free bet today on NY Liberty +3.5 at Dallas Wings, 8pm ET These two teams have played similar strength of schedules and have Net ratings of +5.3 for Dallas and +4.6 for the Liberty. New York has played much of the season without perennial All-Star Sabrina Ionescu, who is back from injury and… Read more: WNBA free bet today | Liberty at Wings | July 20
ASA’s Free WNBA bet on Chicago Sky +7.5 at Las Vegas Aces, 10pm ET The Sky got plenty of rest with the Commissioners Cup break while the Aces traveled to New York to face the Liberty in the Championship game. Unfortunately for the Aces they lost to the Liberty and now travel back home to… Read more: WNBA Free Bet Sky vs Aces – July 3rd 2026
Wisconsin Badgers bounce back 2026 WISCONSIN BADGERS Big 10 Sleeper – The Badgers look to bounce back after failing to make a bowl game in each of the last 2 seasons after reaching the post-season every year since 2002 prior to that. They showed some life near the end of last season beating 2 ranked… Read more: Wisconsin Badgers Big Ten 2026
South Carolina football predictions 2026 SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS sleeper team – The Gamecocks finished a disappointing 4-8 last season which was their worst season under head coach Shane Beamer. Their only other losing season under Beamer was in 2023 when they finished 5-7 and bounced back in 2024 with a 9-4 record. Despite their record,… Read more: South Carolina Gamecocks 2026
ASA WNBA play on Dallas Wings -6.5 vs. Phoenix Mercury, 8pm ET The Wings are playing well right now with a 6-3 overall record which includes winning 4 of their last five. In this current stretch of games, they have two solid wins over the Aces and Liberty and the lone loss was respectable considering… Read more: ASA WNBA Free Bet – Mercury vs Wings – June 11 2026
BREAKING: 76ers get Celtics Jaylen Brown (age 29) for Paul George + 2 FRPs + 2 SRPs. Compared to the Clippers trade of Kawhi Leonard (35) for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick + 2 FRPs + 2 SRPs. Make it make sense?
Celtics odds pre trade +800, post +1000
Sixers odds pre trade +7000,
League sources confirm that the Mavericks have convinced Dusty May to leave the University of Michigan to take their coaching job and leap to the NBA after winning a national championship in the spring.
The move will be officially announced later Monday.
#Wemby gets a lot of love when he plays well but deserves some criticism when he doesn't. He got bullied on the missed FT's, made bad decisions down the stretch offensively, gave up a critical layup on a late rotation. He should have rec'd a flagrant 1 when #Brunson landed on his
Big 12 ADs tell @YahooSports they’ve had “serious” talks on not playing Texas Tech. One SEC AD says there should be conversations about not playing Tech “in any sports.”
The Brendan Sorsby ruling has left an industry jarred.
