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NC State vs. UConn prediction | Point Train | Aug 31st 2023

College prediction for Thursday, August 31st

POINT TRAIN NC State at Connecticut – Thursday, 7:30PM EST

WAGER – NC STATE -14

RATING – Beer & Pizza

  • We are going against the line move here as this number opened with the Wolfpack favored by -16.5 points but has since been bet down to -14.
  • Consider this though. These teams played last season and NC State was favored by 38-points and won 41-10. The Pack dominated with 29 first downs to just 8, nearly 400-total yards to just 160.
  • NC State returns 7 starters on offense and 5 on defense. They also have Virginia QB transfer Brennan Armstrong under center who threw for over 4,440-yards with 31 TD’s to 10 INT’s two years ago for the Cavaliers. He’s now reunited with former UVA offensive coordinator Robert Anae so expect this Wolfpack offense to hum.
  • UConn made strides last year under head coach Jim Mora, winning 5 of their last eight games, but they still have a way to go.
  • The Husky were 94th in points per drive scored last season and ranked 69th in scoring defense giving up an average of 28.2PPG. Those rankings/statistics also came against a weak schedule.
  • One negative here is the fact that NC State has a big game on deck against Notre Dame, but with this being the first game of the season we don’t expect them to look past this UConn team.

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AFC South Prediction | Titans Win Total Bet | Aug 28th

NFL AFC South prediction on the Tennessee Titans

NFL WIN TOTAL – TENNESSEE TITANS OVER 7.5 WINS +115

This AFC South prediction is arguably our toughest call on an NFL team’s win total for the season. We will touch on the questions surrounding the Titans heading into the 2023-24 season. Can Tennessee move on from their disastrous finish to the season a year ago when they lost 7 straight games? Will the Titans make a bold move towards the future and start an unproven QB in Malik Willis or even rookie QB Will Levis?  Looking at the rest of the AFC South predictions, the Jaguars are the favorite to be the best team in the division again after a 9-8 season a year ago, but is Jacksonville that much better than Tennessee? The Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts both have a win total projection of 6.5 after winning just 7 games between them a year ago. The big advantage we feel the Titans have: 1) Derrick Henry is still a workhorse that finished the season 2nd in rushing with 1,538 yards. 2) IF they decided to stay with QB Ryan Tannehill, who admittedly had a down season a year ago, they still have an advantage over the Texans who may start rookie QB Stroud and the Colts who are looking hard at rookie Anthony Richardson or journeymen QB Gardner Minshew. 3) Head coach Mike Vrabel is 43-27 in Tennessee with three postseason appearances in four seasons. The Texans and Colts have unproven, first year coaches in Demeco Ryans and Shane Steichen. If the Titans get the game manager that QB Tannehill was from 2019 to 2022 they should be an above .500 team. Tannehill threw 76 TD’s to 27 INT’s in that three year stretch and completed over 65% of his attempts in all three seasons. Tennessee owned the best rush defense in the NFL in terms of yards per game allowed but were last in pass defense. That shouldn’t be a concern facing unproved QB’s in the division this season. Last season the Titans lost 10 games but six of those were one score games. They were minus -3 in net turnovers for the season and a few big ones were the difference in several of those one-score games. The Titans face one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season which includes the other AFC South teams plus four games against the NFC South which isn’t one of the better divisions in football.  Our AFC South prediction is Over 7.5 win on the Tennessee Titans.

OTHER TITANS BETTING OPTIONS:

  • RB Derrick Henry OVER 1175.5 (-112) TOTAL RUSHING YARDS – Henry has rushed for over 1538 yards in three of the last four seasons when he’s played 15 or more games. In 2021-22 he played in just 8 games and still rushed for 937 yards. Henry has been top 10 in rushing attempts per season in four straight years and 1st in three of the four (only season he wasn’t the year he played just 8 games).

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NFLx Bet | Bills vs. Bears | NFL prediction

#121 ASA PLAY ON Buffalo Bills -3 over Chicago Bears, Saturday at 1 PM ET

Both teams plan to play their starters in this NFLx game which gives the Bills a solid edge.  How long the regulars play is in question for both teams, but even when the starters come out, Buffalo is the deeper and better team and laying under a FG is a decent play here.  The Bills are coming off a 27-15 loss @ Pittsburgh last weekend.  In that game, the Bills outgained the Steelers 5.8 YPP to 4.4 YPP but Buffalo had 13 penalties (just 4 for Pittsburgh) and they turned the ball over 4 times.  17 of Pittsburgh’s 25 points came on drives of 25, 13, and -1 yards.  A week earlier the Bills beat Indy and outgained the Colts by 1.2 YPP so they’ve outgained both opponents by more than 1.0 YPP.  Chicago is also 1-1 (loss vs Colts & win vs Titans) but they’ve been outgained in both games (total yards).  Our word is Justin Fields continues to struggle with accuracy in camp and while he is 3 for 3 in the preseason, 2 of his passes were short dump offs to WR Moore and RB Herbert that went for big yardage (both TD’s).  We like the better, deeper team to close out the preseason with a win.  Lay the small number with Buffalo for our NFLx bet.

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AFC West Prediction | Chargers Win Total Bet | Aug 21st

NFL Prediction on the LA Chargers and how many games they’ll win in 2023

AFC WEST

ASA’s NFL WIN TOTAL UNDER 9.5 WINS LA CHARGERS +110

The Chargers face the rest of the AFC West twice which features Kansas City, Denver and Las Vegas. Obviously, the Chiefs are the Super Bowl Champs with their core players returning. The Broncos are a team with a great defense, a hall of fame QB and genius head coach in Sean Payton and could make a huge jump in 2023-24. The Raiders are a bit of an unknown but could be better with their QB change. They also face the AFC East which could be the best division in the league and also get the Cowboys and Ravens. The Chargers had a negative net yardage differential as they gained +5.3 yards per play but allowed -5.9YPPL. We can also expect a regression in turnovers as the Chargers benefitted from the second-best net turnover differential per game in the NFL at +0.6. We also don’t feel they can sustain their 3rd down conversion rate of 6.7 per game from a year ago which was best in the league. The mystique surrounding the Chargers is their offense which is deemed as one of the best in the NFL with high profile QB Justin Herbert. You might be surprised by the fact that the Chargers ranked 19th in offensive DVOA last year, were 12th overall in scoring and 21st in Yards Per Play. Los Angeles allowed the 29th most Yards Per Play a year ago and were 23rd in scoring defense giving up an average of 23.1PPG. The Chargers were also in the bottom half of the league in defensive DVOA rankings. We don’t see the Chargers getting 10 or more wins this season.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • LA CHARGERS NOT TO MAKE PLAYOFFS  -120 – This ties into our assessment of their win total. If Denver makes a jump the Chargers could finish 3rd in the AFC West. The AFC East and AFC North will have multiple teams from their division advance into the playoffs which could leave Los Angeles on the sidelines come the postseason.

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NASCAR PREDICTION | Go Bowling Watkins Glen | August 20th

Nascar Cup bet for the Go Bowling Watkins Glen 2023

It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200 AND had him packaged for a Top 10 finish. Today we expecting the Chevy’s to dominate in the Go Bowling at Watkins Glen.

RACE WINNER – Chase Elliot +$550 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. We have been patiently waiting for this race for an opportunity to back Chase Elliott and the #9 Chevrolet. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Elliott finish 4th. Elliott and the #9 have yet to win this season but he has been fantastic on the road courses with three top 5 finishes. In the last four races on this particular track, he has finished 4th, 2nd and won twice. The #9 didn’t have a great practice run yet he is still the odds-on favorite to win this race at +550. That should tell us enough.

TOP 3 FINISHER – Kyle Larson +$140 – It was a huge day for us at the track last week as we nailed Michael McDowell at +700 for a Top 3 finish at the Brickyard 200. This is a great spot to back the Rick Hendrick #5 Chevrolet and Kyle Larson. Chevy has performed exceptionally well on road courses overall and Watkins Glen is no exception. Chevy has captured the checked in four straight races at Watkins Glen and last year they had 4 of the top five finishers, which included Larson who won. Larson has a solid track record on road courses with an average finish of 12.6. In 16 races on road courses, he has 4 wins, 7 top 5’s and 12 top 10’s. He’s won at Watkins Glen two straight years. Can he make it 3 straight? You bet he can!

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