ASA Big Ten Conference Weekly Report Oct 15

For the second straight week, Michigan State is off another win in which they allowed the inferior opponent to hang around too long. Purdue came back from three touchdowns behind to get the football with a chance to tie or win in the final minute before a pick-six clinched the 45-31 victory for MSU. Sparty had no problem moving the ball against Purdue, notching 532 total yards behind big days by QB Cook (238 pass yds, 3 TD) and RB’s Langford & Hill (combined 174 rush yds, 2 TD). It was a bit concerning that the Spartans vaunted defense allowed Purdue to rush for 5.2 YPC and allowed unproven QB Appleby to complete 24-of-37 passes. If Michigan State wants a shot at the Playoff, they’ll have to start winning more impressively. The Spartans’ 4th ranked scoring offense should have no problem scoring points against this Indiana defense that again ranks at or near the bottom of the B1G in every major statistical category. Last week the Hoosiers allowed a struggling Iowa offense to gain 426 yards and score 45 points in the 16-point Hawkeyes win. Indiana QB Sudfeld separated his shoulder in that loss and will likely miss the remainder of the season. His replacement, Covington, is a true freshman who was recruited to play safety before being moved to the QB position just a few months ago. After replacing Sudfeld last week, Covington completed just 3-of-12 passes for 31 yards with 2 INT. Now he has the seemingly impossible task of going against this 12th ranked MSU defense in his first career start. Indiana will try to get RB Coleman – who leads the FBS in rush yards – going against this MSU run-defense that ranks 5th in rush yards allowed. Michigan State is 9-1 SU & 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with Indiana. The Hoosiers are 6-2 ATS in the last eight home games as an underdog of 10+ points.

OSU & Rutgers are both off of a bye week entering this weekend’s matchup in Columbus. After a poor performance against Virginia Tech in which he completed 9-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 3 INT, OSU’s J.T. Barrett has completed 75.2% of his passes for 303 YPG with 14 TD and just 1 INT in the last three games. He was masterful in OSU’s win over Maryland, finishing 18-of-23 for 267 yards with 4 TD and 0 INT while scoring 1 rush TD for good measure. The Bucks have now scored 50+ points in three consecutive games as this young offense grows more and more comfortable in Urban Meyer’s scheme. Defensively the Buckeyes young group continues to improve and they are off of a game in which they shutdown a solid Maryland offense. They allowed Maryland QB’s to complete just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. That’s a promising development after allowing 352 pass yards and 4 TD to Cincinnati in the prior game. Opponents have had a tough time rushing against this Ohio State defensive front, gaining just 61 YPG on fewer than 3.0 YPC the last three games. The Scarlet Knights are one of the biggest surprises in the B1G with a 5-1 mark at the midway point. Rutgers is off of a bye week after a nice home win over Michigan in its last game. The Scarlet Knights blocked a Michigan field goal late in the 4th quarter and were able to run out the clock for their first conference victory as a member of the B1G. It was a hard fought battle with the reeling Wolverines, but give QB Nova credit for stepping up with 404 pass yards and 3 TD when the running game was seemingly non-existent (74 yards on 2.5 YPC). Nova has been expected to shoulder the load on offense after star RB Paul James went down with a knee injury and he hasn’t disappointed. Nova now has 7 TD and 1 INT in his last two games since James went out after tallying 6 TD & 6 INT through the first four games with James in the lineup. The defense will get its toughest test against OSU, but Rutgers appears to be up to the task to slow down Barrett and this pass offense. After allowing Washington State QB Halliday to have a huge day in the opener (532 pass yds, 5 TD), the Scarlet Knights have allowed just 56% completions with 1 pass TD and 3 INT in the last five games. OSU is just 1-4 ATS in the last five B1G home games as a favorite of 17 points or more. Rutgers is 19-5-1 ATS in its last 25 road games as an underdog.

Nebraska used the bye week to heal a number of players that were ailing after the Huskers’ last game loss to Michigan State. Give Nebraska credit for not quitting against Michigan State in a game where seemingly nothing was going right for the Huskers for the better part of three quarters. Down 3-27 in the 4th quarter, Nebraska fought back and cut the deficit to 22-27 with 3:22 remaining. The Huskers were driving with under a minute remaining before an MSU INT put the game away for good. It was tough sledding all game long for star RB Ameer Abdullah, who gained just 45 rush yards on 24 carries after averaging 166 rush YPG through Nebraska’s first five contests. QB Armstrong Jr. was constantly under pressure and completed just 20-of-43 passes for 273 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. Nebraska’s defense played quite well against the Spartans save the three long TD scores. MSU’s QB Cook completed just 11-of-29 passes with 1 TD and 1 INT. And if you take away the two long TD runs by MSU, Nebraska allowed just 2.9 YPC to the Spartans. All in all, there are much worse ways to lose and Nebraska went into its bye week knowing it can compete with the B1G elite. This week they travel to Evanston to take on a Northwestern squad off a dispiriting loss to Minnesota. The Wildcats outgained Minnesota 393-274 and held the Gophers vaunted rushing attack to just 121 yards on 3.1 YPC, but a special teams letdown (100 yd kickoff return for TD) after tying the game at 17-17 allowed Minnesota to escape with a seven-point victory. RB Justin Jackson had a nice day with 106 rush yards, but the overall inexplosive nature of their offense prevented Northwestern from putting more than 17 points on the board despite owning the game in every aspect. Northwestern has covered all three meetings with Nebraska since the Huskers became a member of the B1G. The winning margin in those three games has been 3, 1, and 3 points. Northwestern is 0-5 ATS in the last five following a SU loss and just 3-8 ATS in the last 11 conference games. Nebraska has covered five straight road games and is 5-2 ATS in the last seven conference roadies.

It wasn’t pretty, but the Gophers played sound football against Northwestern and came away with the victory. Offensively the Gophers were outgained 393-274 and the rushing attack was stifled for much of the afternoon (121 yards on 3.1 YPC). QB Leidner was unspectacular but efficient as he completed 10-of-15 passes for 153 yards and rushed for two scores. The defense allowed Northwestern QB Siemian to complete 32 passes, but they went for just 269 yards and 1 TD. They also held the Wildcats’ rushing attack to just 124 yards on 3.6 YPC. The defensive unit held when necessary, and Minnesota got a decisive 100-yard kickoff return from Jalen Myrick in the fourth quarter to break the 17-17 tie. Now Minnesota sits at 5-1 overall and 2-0 in conference with a shot to officially become bowl eligible with a win over Purdue on Saturday. Things appear to be trending upward for the Boilermakers. Purdue has played well over the last three games even though the results don’t show up in the standings. Despite being a heavy road ‘dog against MSU last week, the Boilers had a chance to tie or take the lead late in the 4th before a Spartans INT return for TD put the game away for Sparty. QB Appleby was an efficient 24-of-37 for 211 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT – his 2nd consecutive solid performance since becoming the starter. The Boilers, surprisingly, were able to churn out 129 rush yards on 5.2 YPC against this normally unyielding MSU rush defense. RB Akeem Hunt accounted for 96 rush yards on just 12 carries with 3 TD runs. Despite the loss, the Boilers have to be feeling good about the way they’ve played of late. Purdue has won 11 of the last 15 meetings with Minnesota, but the Gophers have won three of the last five, including a 44-28 win in Minnesota in 2012 in the latest meeting. The favorite is 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings. The Gophers haven’t been a double-digit favorite against a Big Ten team since 2004, and are just 3-6 ATS in the last nine as a 10+ point favorite overall. Purdue is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games following a double-digit loss at home.

Maryland had a bye week last week after running into a buzzsaw in its most recent game against OSU. The Buckeyes scored early and often and rode a 31-10 halftime lead into a 52-24 victory. Maryland QB’s Brown & Rowe completed just 24-of-40 passes for 244 yards with 1 TD and 4 INT. Coach Edsall stated that there is absolutely no quarterback controversy and that CJ Brown will be the starter when Maryland returns to the field despite being replaced at halftime against OSU. It’d help whoever is under center if the Terps could get some semblance of a rushing attack. They managed just 66 rush yards on 24 carries (2.8 YPC) against the Bucks and now rank 90th nationally in rush YPG. The good news is that they’ve had a week off to work on that, along with solving their defensive issues (106th against the run, 99th in total defense) before hosting Iowa this weekend. Iowa came off of its own bye week to face Indiana last week, and the Hawkyes that took the field looked completely different than the version we saw over the first five weeks of the season. They were exciting and explosive on offense while scoring 45 points – 21 more than they had scored against an FBS program this season – in the 16-point victory over the Hoosiers. QB Jake Rudock looked much improved, throwing for 210 yards and two scores on 19-of-27 passing as Iowa jumped to a 21-0 lead. Playing against Indiana seemed to solve a lot of Iowa’s offensive woes, as the rushing attack notched 207 yards – the first time Iowa has exceeded 175 rush yards in a game this season. It was a bit concerning that a normally stout Iowa run-defense allowed Indiana to rush for 316 yards on 8.1 YPC with three long TD runs of 83, 69, and 45 by IU’s Tevin Coleman. We’ll see if Iowa can carry its strong offensive performance into the next game on the road against Maryland. Iowa is 8-0 ATS in its last eight roadies, four of which came as an underdog. The Terps are just 1-5 ATS in the last six home games and 0-7 ATS following a bye week.

The winning margin of 10 points over Illinois is a bit misleading as the Illini scored a couple of garbage touchdowns and the Badgers had a +210 yard advantage; but the Badgers had to overcome another slow start and struggled yet again to get a passing attack going. It didn’t matter on Saturday as the Badgers romped for 401 rush yards on 8.5 YPC, but the Badgers will need to develop an aerial attack if they want a shot at a B1G title. Melvin Gordon had another huge day (175 rush yds, 4 TD) to continue his torried pace of 868 rush yds and 12 TD over the past four games. Defensively they allowed Illini backup QB O’Toole to see a few too many passing lanes (12-of-19 for 96 yards and 2 scores) and the rush defense allowed Illinois to rush for its 2nd highest total on the ground this season. Still, this pass defense ranks as the top unit in the B1G, allowing just 50.3% completions for 169.2 YPG with just 5 pass TD. That pass defense will get tested in upcoming games against Maryland and Rutgers.

The Nittany Lions lost a second consecutive game last week against Michigan and are now reeling after a strong 4-0 start. Christian Hackenberg may have all the talent in the world, but he appears to be playing without confidence; mainly because the offensive line stinks and he has so few playmakers around him. Hackenberg has just 1 TD pass in the last four games and the Nittany Lions have limped to just 104 rush yards on 60 carries (1.7 YPC) in PSU’s two consecutive losses. The defense continues to be outstanding as this unit held Michigan to just 256 total yards – including 64 rush yards on 2.1 YPC – and 12 first downs. But their defensive prowess will go unnoticed if the offense continues to underperform. Next up the Nittany Lions will host Ohio State as PSU looks to avenge last year’s 49-point loss to the Buckeyes.

It wasn’t a convincing win over Penn State, but it was a win nonetheless, and the Wolverines will take anything they can get nowadays. The Wolves used a solid defensive performance, holding Penn State to 214 yards, 16 first downs, and just 13 points in the five-point victory. The defense will have to continue to play at an elite level because it appears this offense isn’t making any strides. The Wolves managed just 256 total yards and 12 first downs. They rushed for just 64 yards on 21 carries (2.1 YPC) while QB Gardner was efficient but inexplosive (16-of-24 for 192 yards with 1 TD & 1 INT). It was a solid win at home that saved Brady Hoke’s job for at least one more week, and perhaps this showing can relieve some pressure on Michigan before it travels to East Lansing for the all-important battle of Michigan with the Spartans.

Credit the Illini for playing the Badgers tougher than anyone really expected, especially considering they were playing their first game without star QB Wes Lunt. Illinois jumped out to a 14-7 – before the Badgers scored the next 31 points – and then cut a 24-point deficit to just 10 in the 4th quarter. Backup QB Riley O’Toole made a few big plays (2 TD passes) and the rushing attack notched 153 yards against the Badgers. Still, despite all the “good” things that the Illini did, they were still outgained by 210 yards and allowed UW RB’s Gordon & Clement to rush for 339 yards and 5 TD. This is a porous defense, and now without Lunt, the offense is really going to struggle. Their remaining schedule is against five teams with a combined record of 22-8 and they’ll likely be heavy underdogs in each of those contests.