Tag: NBA futures bet

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NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster

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NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com

With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the 80’s and 90’s was the single greatest sport to watch where winning was everything. This ramble or vent is on how little the so called ‘experts’ talk about or support Jokic as the league’s MVP. I’m a realist and a bettor and I know he’s not going to win this season, but the reality is…he’s the most valuable player in the league and it’s not as close as you think. I’ll explain below with a little help from the computers.

Current 2025-26 season records (near the end of the regular season, ~78-79 games played out of 82):

Oklahoma City Thunder: 62-16 (.795)

San Antonio Spurs: 60-19 (.759)

Denver Nuggets: 51-28 (.646)

Key player stats (per game averages and advanced metrics; all data as of the latest available):

Nikola Jokić (DEN)

PPG: 28.0 | RPG: 12.9 | APG: 10.9 | SPG: 1.4 | TOV: 3.8

PER: 32.3 (elite efficiency)

Win Shares (WS): 14.2 (with WS/48 of .315)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

PPG: 31.4 | RPG: 4.4 | APG: 6.5 | SPG: 1.4 | TOV: 2.2

PER: 31.0

Win Shares (WS): 15.0 (league leader, WS/48 of .328)

Victor Wembanyama (SAS)

PPG: 24.8 | RPG: 11.5 | APG: 3.1 | SPG: 1.0 | TOV: 2.4 | BPG: 3.1

PER: 29.5

Win Shares (WS): 9.6 (WS/48 of .254)

Simulation Method – Win Shares (WS) is the most direct metric here for estimating a player’s win contribution. It is built from box-score stats (points, rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers) plus defensive contributions, efficiency adjustments, pace, and team context. It is normalized so a replacement-level player contributes ~0 WS. PER provides supporting context on individual efficiency but is already embedded in the WS calculation. The simulation is straightforward and standard for these hypotheticals:

Estimated wins without the star ≈ current team wins − player’s WS (rounded to nearest whole win).

Losses increase by the same amount to keep total games played the same. This assumes the star’s minutes are filled by replacement-level talent (0 WS contribution). It is an estimate—real basketball has lineup synergies, chemistry, and schedule effects that WS approximates but does not perfectly capture. Remaining games (~3–4) have minimal impact given how close we are to the end of the season.

Estimated Records Without the Star Player

Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokić: ~37-42
Current: 51-28. Subtract Jokić’s 14.2 WS → ~37 wins (losses rise accordingly).
Jokić’s triple-double-level production, historic efficiency (PER 32.3), and massive WS make him the clear engine. Without him the Nuggets would still be a solid playoff-level team thanks to depth, but they drop from a top-3 West seed to a borderline play-in squad.

Oklahoma City Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: ~47-31
Current: 62-16. Subtract SGA’s 15.0 WS → ~47 wins.
SGA is the league’s WS leader and an MVP-caliber two-way force. The Thunder have excellent supporting pieces and depth, so they would remain a strong playoff team (likely still a top-4 seed in the West), but they lose their offensive engine and defensive versatility, dropping from historic pace to “very good but not elite.”

San Antonio Spurs without Victor Wembanyama: ~50-29
Current: 60-19. Subtract Wemby’s 9.6 WS → ~50 wins.
Wembanyama’s elite two-way impact (PER 29.5, massive blocks, rebounding, and growing playmaking) is huge, but the Spurs have built real supporting talent around him. Without him they would still contend for a high playoff seed, but they lose the defensive anchor and unique spacing/rim protection that makes their system special.

Bottom line: All three teams would remain competitive without their superstar (thanks to depth and coaching), but each would drop noticeably—most dramatically the Nuggets (Jokić’s WS impact is enormous relative to the team’s margin). These are data-driven estimates grounded in the exact metrics.

There is a good chance Jokic will never win another MVP even if he continues to put up these historical statistics. SGA is going to win again this year, then it will be Wemby for the forseeable future who will probably win multiple years in a row, until the voters get “Wemby-fatigue” and move on from him.

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NBA Future Bets – 2023-24 – By ASA

NBA Future Bets – Oct 23rd

If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.

ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.

Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.

L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS

This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS

The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS

This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS

The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.

Good luck – ASA

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