Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board
As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought by voters. That number feels like a gift for bettors who actually look at the numbers instead of the narrative.
Let’s run the tape. Jokić is putting up 27.9 points per game (7th in the NBA), but he’s miles ahead of the flashier counting stats that voters love. He leads the league in rebounding at 12.9 RPG—Wembanyama is a distant 5th at 11.4. He’s also No. 1 in assists at 10.8 APG; Shai is back in 18th at 6.5. Both Jokić and Wemby have played 60-61 games. Shai has suited up for 64, yet the Serbian big man still posts the second-best PER in basketball (32.5-32.6 range), trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo—who’s played just 34-36 games and is effectively out of the conversation.
Jokić is the only player in the top tier doing everything at an elite level. He’s not just scoring—he’s orchestrating the Nuggets’ offense like a point guard in a 7-footer’s body while dominating the glass. Efficiency? Off the charts. Wins above replacement and advanced metrics back it up. Yet the betting market and media have him as a distant long shot behind SGA (31.6 PPG on a presumed top seed) and Wemby (the shiny new superstar on a Spurs team rolling at a .760 clip).
So why the disrespect? Voter fatigue is real. Jokić already has three MVPs. NBA awards historically punish repeat winners once the “new shiny toy” narrative kicks in—see the love for Wemby’s two-way explosion or SGA’s scoring explosion on what looks like the league’s best team. Denver sits at 48-28 with 6 games to play, solid but not the juggernaut OKC or San Antonio have been. Narrative > stats in MVP voting, and the story right now is “SGA carries the No. 1 seed” or “Wemby is the future.” That’s exactly why +6000 is screaming value. Jokić has been the best all-around player in the league again. He leads the NBA in rebounding and assists while posting top-10 scoring on elite efficiency. His PER sits second only to a guy who barely played half a season. If the Nuggets close strong and Jokić keeps triple-double hunting, the advanced-stat crowd (and any voter who actually watches film) will remember who’s been the most valuable night in and night out. At +6000, you’re getting 60-1 implied odds on a player who’s been the best in the league by most objective measures. That’s not a long shot—that’s a mispriced gift. If you’re betting MVP futures, the Joker at plus money this big is the play. The numbers don’t lie. The market just isn’t listening.
We won’t make a large wager on this but will make a small investment instead. It’s not about stats or who is the best player, it’s political and biased and decided by uninformed, biased sports writers.
LA CLIPPERS OVER 49.5 WINS (-120) – The Clippers are going to be better this season than they were a year ago when they won 50 games. They lost Norman Powell to the Heat but added Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. They also get a full year with John Collins in the lineup after trading for him midway through the season last year. The health of aging Kahwi Leonard is always a concern but this deep roster can overcome load management games with some of the vets resting nights. Los Angeles was 6th in average margin of victory last season at +4.7PPG and had the 5th best Efficiency Differential at +4.8.
MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 43.5 WINS (+100) – The one caveat that could derail this season long win total bet is if Giannis Antetokounmpo demands a trade mid-season. The Bucks added a few key pieces in the offseason with Miles Turner, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris along with bringing back Thanasis Antetokounmpo (to appease Giannis). Milwaukee had the 11th best Efficiency Differential in the NBA a year ago at +2.4 and won 48 games. The Eastern Conference is going to be down this season with Super Star players Jayson Tatum (Celtics) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) sidelined. The Bucks have won 44+ games every season dating back to the 2017-18 season. Giannis was a top 3 player last season in Value Index and Usage percentage. If he stays…the Bucks win 50.
TORONTO RAPTORS OVER 39.5 WINS (-110) – The Raptors had the 9th most missed games due to injuries last season and still managed to win 30 games. If this team can remain healthy we like them to get to 40+ wins and make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed. The starting lineup of Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl is solid. Ingram and Barnes are All-Star caliber players capable of averaging 22+ points per game.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 47.5 WINS (-122) – The Warriors are obviously a public team and their win total reflects a bump of a few wins making them a value UNDER team. Father time is undefeated and Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Al Horford aren’t getting any younger. This team was still elite defensively a year ago with the 7th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the regular season, but their offense was average (15th in OEFF). The Warriors won 48 games a year ago but it’s going to be tough to get to that number with this aging roster. And let’s face it, Golden State isn’t concerned about winning the division or the Western Conference, they want to be fresh come playoff time and just have a seat at the table.
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NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
ASA NBA Future Bet:Nuggets at +700: A Championship Steal with Upgraded Depth and Defense
The Denver Nuggets sit at +700 odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship (implied probability ~12.5%), offering solid value for a team that’s reloaded around Nikola Jokić after a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the Thunder in the 2024-25 Western Conference Semifinals.
Fresh off a 50-32 regular season that secured the No. 4 seed, Denver’s elite offense—ranking 4th in offensive efficiency (OEFF) last year at 116.3 points per 100 possessions—remains one of the league’s best, but their defensive woes (22nd in defensive efficiency, DEFF, at 114.5) needed improvement. Fast-forward to the offseason: the Nuggets aggressively addressed depth and perimeter D, transforming a top-heavy roster into a balanced contender poised for another title run.
In the 2023-24 championship season, they finished 5th in OEFF and 8th in DEFF. Last year’s defensive drop-off correlated with thin bench minutes, but new additions flip the script. Trading Michael Porter Jr. (a high-usage scorer plagued by inconsistency – not a great defender) to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson nets a defensive upgrade—Johnson posted a career-best 18.8 PPG in 2024-25 while ranking in the 85th percentile for defensive versatility, per NBA Advanced Stats, adding switchable wings to clog passing lanes.
Re-signing Bruce Brown (the 2023 Finals X-factor) brings back gritty two-way play, while signing Tim Hardaway Jr. (fresh off a stint with Detroit) injects 40% three-point shooting (on 5.5 attempts per game last season) to stretch floors and punish help defense. Swapping Dario Šarić for Jonas Valančiūnas from Sacramento provides Jokić his best backup big ever—a rebounding machine (9.3 RPG for his career) who can anchor the paint with Jokic on the bench. These moves boost bench net rating by an estimated +4.2 points per 100 possessions (via Cleaning the Glass projections), directly targeting last year’s -3.1 non-Jokić minutes.
With Jokić entering his prime (projected for another MVP-caliber 26-12-9 line) and a healthier Jamal Murray, Denver’s now built for playoff grind. At +700, they’re undervalued and a solid bet to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy and pocket that sweet payout.
ASAwins NBA Service – Some of the best betting advice in the biz!
Proven Success: 7 of the last 8 NBA seasons delivered profitable results!
Impressive ROI: Over the last 5 years, we’ve achieved 141.4 Net Stars WON!
Bouncing Back: After a rare down year, our 35+ years of experience, advanced computer analytics, line analysis, and math model metrics are ready to win big!
Don’t miss out—join ASAwins today and start winning! [Sign Up Now]
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.
ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.
Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.
L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS
This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.
DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS
The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.
BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS
This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.
GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS
The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
ASA NBA predictionCleveland Cavaliers (+350) to win the Eastern Conference Cleveland made the biggest splash of any team before the trade deadline, acquiring James Harden from the Clippers in early February. The trade has sparked the Cavs offense who is averaging 130ppg over the first three games that the 11-time All Star has played. Donovan… Read more: NBA prediction Cleveland Cavaliers Eastern Conf Champs +350
ASA’s NFL News & Notes – Oct 23 2025 CHICAGO BEARS – The Bears topped New Orleans 26-14 on Sunday and have now won 4 straight games. Believe it or not, that their longest winning streak in 6 years! How have they done it? Turnovers. They have at least 3 takeaways in all 4 of their… Read more: NFL News & Notes | Oct 23 2025
NBA SEASON LONG WIN TOTAL BETS LA CLIPPERS OVER 49.5 WINS (-120) – The Clippers are going to be better this season than they were a year ago when they won 50 games. They lost Norman Powell to the Heat but added Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. They also get a full year… Read more: NBA WIN TOTAL BETS | 2025-26 FUTURES
ASA NBA Future Bet: Nuggets at +700: A Championship Steal with Upgraded Depth and Defense The Denver Nuggets sit at +700 odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship (implied probability ~12.5%), offering solid value for a team that’s reloaded around Nikola Jokić after a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the Thunder in the 2024-25 Western Conference… Read more: NBA Championship Bet | Nuggets +700 | 2025-26
Point Train – NFL Power Rankings (Post-Week 6, 2025) Here is a short NFL rankings based on what we’ve seen through games played on October 13th. These rankings are fluid and will fluctuate weekly. We are reflecting on their performance and alignment with analytics as of October 14, 2025. Thanks for taking a minute to… Read more: NFL Power Rankings | Oct 14 2025
If you are a bettor that likes to invest in NBA futures here are a couple wagers to consider for league MVP. We are sticking with a pair of our preseason predictions but have added another based on early season results.
Giannis Antetokounmpo +$250
Before the season started, we predicted Giannis Antetokounmpo as the NBA league MVP at +$250. Giannis is putting up 29.9PPG, 11.8RPG, 5.5APG with a PER rating of 29.14. In order he ranks 8th, 2nd, 29th and 6th in those four key categories. Milwaukee holds the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference at 11-3. The Greek Freak is quietly putting up numbers similar to his 2019 and 2020 season when he won back-to-back MVP’s.
Ja Morant +$1400
We also like a long shot early on with Ja Morant who is now listed at +1400. We still like Morant who is 9th in scoring at 29.3PPG while also averaging 6.8-Assists Per Game (14th) and 6.2-Rebounds Per Game (60th) with a PER of 26.19 (10th). Memphis has dealt with a number of key injuries early on but have still managed a 9-6 record. For Morant to win though he will have to improve on his assists per game and Memphis will need to finish as one of the top teams in the West.
Jayson Tatum $+550
New to the table is Jason Tatum who has led the Celtics to a 12-3 record and the best team +/- in the league at +7.1PPG. We won’t be surprised if Boston finishes first in the East again and if that’s the case, Tatum will be high on the voter’s radar. Tatum has the 7th best PER at 27.50, is 5th in scoring at 31.1PPG, is grabbing 7.4 Boards Per Game (40th) and is dishing out 4.1APG which ranks 50th. What makes Tatum as an attractive option right now is the fact that his team is deep and defenses can’t key on him. Boston spaces the floor with shooters at every position and they make shots at a 48.8% which is 3rd in the NBA. That means additional assist per game for Tatum even if he isn’t scoring as much.
HONORABLE MENTION – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – SGA won’t win MVP this season because he’s on a losing team in the Thunder but he’s put up incredible numbers to start the season and is worth mentioning. Gilgeous-Alexander is scoring 32.3PPG, grabbing 4.5RPG and dishing out 5.9APG. His PER rating is 30.10 which is 3rd best in the NBA.
Here is our elimination list or players I would avoid investing in: #1 on the list is Zion Williamson. Who in their right mind would invest in this “china doll” who can’t stay healthy? Yes, he can be a stat-sheet stuffer but there is no chance he wins MVP playing limited games this season. #2 Nikola Jokic. Jokic has won it the past two seasons which and it’s unlikely we would see a three-year run from the media. He also has Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. back from injury and both cut into his scoring numbers.
NBA Longshot – We have you covered – Denver Nuggets (+850) As we mentioned in our Efficiency Champions article, the Nuggets didn’t have the defensive efficiency stats to qualify this year as a potential NBA Champion (efficiency wise) but their overall efficiency differential is 7th best. The Nuggets suffered through several key injuries to their… Read more: NBA Longshot – Denver Nuggets +850
Our Money is on a team everyone is sleeping on…Detroit Pistons +425 to win the Eastern Conference The Celtics are the odds on favorites to win the East and we won’t argue that as they’ve been really, really good this season and even a 70% Jayson Taytum is better than most players in the NBA.… Read more: NBA Eastern Conference Champs – Pistons +425
NBA Champions based on Efficiency stats! By – ASA So, you’re thinking about a future wager on the NBA Championship and you’re not sure who to take? We can help you with some proven statistics that may accurately predict who this year’s Champion may be and rule out the most obvious media darling pretenders. The… Read more: NBA Champions Predictions – Proven Efficiency Stats
NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the… Read more: NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster
Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought… Read more: NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets
Jordan Pope (ankle) has been deemed a "true game-time decision," but it looks like he's going to give it a go for Texas and try to at least gut it out.
Gotta love the @CBSSports "expert" analysts talking about the brackets with Clark Kellogg saying that High Point has experience and good size. Experience yes. Size what? They rank 329th in average height and don't have a single guy over 6'8 in their rotation #NCAAtourney
Spot the difference between the #NHL and #NBA? The toothless guy who lays it on the line for pride in his country or the guy that flops and fakes injuries all the time? #jackhughes @stoolpresidente @usahockey
