Tag: college football best bets

THE GAME

Florida State (13-1 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Georgia Tech (7-6 SU & 8-5 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24^th at 12 PM ET – @ Dublin, Ireland

THE LINES – Florida State (-10.5) / O/U [55.5] 

FLORIDA STATE OFFENSE – 32.8 PPG (23^rd) / 392.2 YPG (54^th) / 6.0 YPP (36^th) / 12.0 YPPT (12^th)

FSU OFFENSIVE NOTES  – FSU’s starting QB this year is DJ Uiagalelei who previously was the starter at Clemson and Oregon State / FSU is ranked 81^st in returning offensive production per ESPN S&P+ / FSU lost top 2 WR’s Coleman & Wilson both to the NFL – new starting WR’s are transfers from Bama who had 162 yards receiving last year & LSU who did not play last year / The Seminoles return 4 starters on the offensive line and they’ve combined to start 190 career games which is 3^rd most nationally.

FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE – 19.8 PPG (17^th) / 340.2 YPG (31^st) / 4.9 YPP (23^rd) / 17.2 YPPT (12^th)

FSU DEFENSIVE NOTES – FSU returns 5 starters on defense and loses 6 of their top 9 tacklers from last season / The Noles bring back 50% of their overall tackles from last season which is 95^th in the country / Florida State lost 5 starters in their defensive front 7 but pulled in replacement transfers from Georgia (DE who had 12 tackles last season) and Auburn (LB who had 28 tackles last season) / FSU finished in the top 20 nationally in pass defense last year but outside the top 60 in rush defense.

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSE – 29.7 PPG (43^rd) / 411.8 YPG (36^th) / 6.0 YPP (36^th) / 13.9 YPPT (49^th)

GEORGIA TECH OFFENSIVE NOTES – GT is ranked 7^th in the nation in returning offensive production per ESPN SP+ / QB Haynes King is back after throwing for over 2800 yards and rushing for over 800 yards last season / Tech led the ACC in rushing last year averaging 198 YPG / The Jackets bring back 4 starting offensive linemen who have combined for 128 career starts (13^th in the country) / They return 86% of their offensive yards from last year which is 11^th most in the nation.

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSE – 30.8 PPG (100^th) / 449.3 YPG (123^rd) / 6.2 YPP (118^th) / 14.6 YPPT (58^th)

GEORGIA TECH DEFENSIVE NOTES – Tech finished 130^th last season (out of 133 teams) defending the run allowing 223 YPG on the ground / GT has new DC Tyler Santucci who came over from Duke so he has some familiarity with FSU / Santucci will mainly run an aggressive 4-2-5 scheme / His Duke defense finished 18^th nationally last year allowing 20 PPG / The Yellow Jackets ranked 105^th in returning defensive production per ESPN SP+ / The Tech defense allowed at least 400 total yards in 10 of their 13 games last year.

THE GAME

SMU (11-3 SU & 8-6 ATS last season) vs

Nevada (2-10 SU & 6-6 ATS last season)

Saturday, Aug 24^th at 8 PM ET

THE LINES – SMU (-24.5) / O/U [56]

SMU OFFENSE – 36.4PPG (10th) / 446.9YPG (18^th) / 6.0YPP (37^th) / 12.3YPPT (12^th)

SMU OFFENSIVE NOTES –  8 returning starters including QB Stone. SMU’s offense will be led by quarterback Preston Stone, who returns from a late season injury last season, after throwing for nearly 3,200YDS w/28 TD’s to 6 INT’s. With a talented receiving corps (averaged 270.4PYPG / 30^th in 2023) and a solid offensive line, the Mustangs are expected to put up big numbers through the air. The Mustang return their three top rushers including Jaylan Knighton who rushed for over 750-yards last season. SMU averaged 176.5RYPG (35^th).

SMU DEFENSE – 19.2PPG (14^th) / 315.5YPG (14^th) / 4.5YPP (7^th) / 16.5YPPT (21^st)

SMU DEFENSIVE NOTES – The Mustangs went from allowing 6.1YPP in 2022 to giving up just 4.5YPP in 2023 (7^th). The defense returns 7 starters from last year’s unit that ranked top 21 in several key categories. SMU’s defense did a great job getting off the field by holding opponents to 4.1 3^rd down conversions per game (13^th).

NEVADA OFFENSE – 18.4PPG (119^th) / 303.1YPG (119^th) / 4.3YPP (127^th) / 16.5YPPT (109^th)

NEVADA OFFENSIVE NOTES – The Wolfpack have struggled in recent years, including last season when they won 2 games, leading to a coaching change and an overhauled roster. Nevada had the 124^th worst average point differential per game of minus -15.1PPG. QB Brendon Lewis returns for the Wolfpack who threw for 1,313 yards with 2 TD/6 INT and a passer rating of 33.3 (117^th). The running game is their strength with their top two rushers (Dollars & Bianco) returning. The offensive line allowed 3.8 sacks per game last season (127^th) and didn’t provide the running backs many open holes as they averaged 3.3YPR (117^th).  

NEVADA DEFENSE – 33.5PPG (114^th) / 440.9YPG (118^th) / 6.7YPP (131^st) / 13.2YPPT (96th)

NEVADA DEFENSIVE NOTES – Head coach Jeff Choate has a solid background defensively and has his work cut out for him this season. The Wolfpack have two DL starters returning, along with their corps of linebackers. The secondary needs to be completely rebuilt and will be their defensive Achilles heel. Nevada allowed 348.5PYPG (96^th), 64.7% completion percentage (111^th) and 8.4 yards per pass attempt (118^th).

YPP = Yards Per Play, YPPT = Yards Per Point

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