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College Football Free Pick | Owls vs Irish | Sep 12 2026

Rice vs Notre Dame

COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PICK – BROUGHT TO YOU BY POINT TRAIN CONSULTING

POINT TRAIN CFB

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Over 55.5 total points Rice at Notre Dame – 3:30PM ET

  • Let’s be honest here, Notre Dame could put up 55 points themselves in this game which would mean we need just 1 score from the Owls.
  • Irish head coach Freeman has made a point that he’s going to run it up every chance he gets this season for style points so they don’t miss the playoffs this season.
  • Last week against a solid Badger defense the Irish averaged 5.6 Yards Per Play, had 350 total yards of offense and put up 41-points.
  • Notre Dame’s defense is highly rated but they did allow the Badgers, who were literally one of the worst offensive teams in college football last season, to manage 278 total yards and 4.5Y.P.P.L.
  • Rice should have some success moving the ball here with an offensive that did put up 27 FD’s last week against Houston Christian along with nearly 500 total yards at 6.2Y.P.P.L.
  • Clearly Houston Christian isn’t Notre Dame but again we may need just 10-points from the Owls to get this win.
  • Notre Dame scored 49+ points five times last season, 56 or more in three of those.
  • The Owls allowed 52+ three times last season to offenses not as good as this Irish unit.

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Ohio State vs Texas Preview | Sept 12 2026

Ohio State vs Texas

OHIO STATE vs TEXAS PREVIEW – September 12th 2026

No. 1 Ohio State visits No. 4 Texas on Saturday, Sept. 12, at 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC) at Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. Both teams opened with blowouts—Ohio State 56-3 over Ball State and Texas 59-7 over Texas State—and ASA power rankings list the Buckeyes No. 1 and the Longhorns No. 2, making this the best game of the year. It is also the third meeting between the programs in 21 months.

Ohio State leads the series 3-2 and they’ve met each of the last 2 seasons with OSU winning both. Those two meetings were both great, tightly contested affairs.  Last season the Buckeyes were a 1.5-point home favorite and won 14-7 in Columbus. Texas actually outgained Ohio State 336 yards to 203 and averaged 5.0 yards per play to Ohio State’s 3.7, but the Longhorns were stopped on downs twice inside the Ohio State 10-yard line. The year before that, in the College Football Playoff semifinals, Ohio State was a 5.5-point favorite and won 28-14. That final score was also a bit misleading as the Buckeyes led 21-14 when Texas was driving for the tying score, only for Ohio State to return a fumble 83 yards and take a two-score lead with two minutes left.

Betting Picture

Opening numbers listed Texas as a 2- to 2.5-point favorite with a total of 47.5–48. The line has drifted toward the visitors. Current consensus is Texas -1.5 and a total of 49.5, with money lines around Texas -118/-122 and Ohio State +100/+104. This is Ohio State’s first time as an underdog in three years. Since 2004 the Buckeyes have been dogs 29 times and are 20-9 against the spread; they have won more than half of those games outright (15-14 SU). Dating to 1980 they are 48-37 ATS as an underdog.  Texas has been a small home favorite of 1 to 3 points 12 times since 1980 and is just 5-8-1 ATS and 7-7 straight-up in those spots. At home the Longhorns have won 20 of their last 21 games outright, the lone loss coming against Georgia.

Injury Report

Texas running back Derrek Cooper is out after injuring his ankle/foot against Texas State and will remain in a walking boot “for the foreseeable future,” according to Steve Sarkisian. He was the clear No. 3 back. Wide receiver Daylan McCutcheon is questionable with an illness. Left tackle Trevor Goosby (knee) is expected to be available after practicing. Offensive lineman Kaden Scherer (knee) is out. Safety Yaheim Riley did not dress for the opener.  Ohio State has not issued a detailed non-conference injury report. Wide receiver Kyle Parker is listed as questionable with an undisclosed injury. The Buckeyes otherwise appear relatively healthy coming out of their Week 1 blowout.

What To Watch

Arch Manning is 9-0 in home starts with 40 touchdown passes at home since 2024 and now has more weapons around him, including Cam Coleman. Julian Sayin is 5-0 in road starts. Jeremiah Smith remains Ohio State’s most dangerous skill player.  Turnovers have decided recent outcomes for both teams. Texas is 11-0 under Manning when it wins the turnover battle and 0-3 when it does not; Ohio State has lost every game since 2023 in which it was even or behind in turnover margin. Saturday’s heat in Austin (near 100 degrees) and a sold-out DKR crowd add another layer.  Ohio State’s long-term record as an underdog and its recent success in these exact matchups give the Buckeyes a historical edge that the current 1.5-point line only partially reflects. Texas counters with home-field advantage and the chance to avenge two close, painful losses. Another physical, one-score game would surprise no one.

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BETTING NEWS AND NOTES

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NFL Win Total Bets | Commanders & Steelers

NFL win totals 2027

NFL WIN TOTAL BETS 2026-27 – By Marty – Point Train Consultants

Washington under 7.5 wins and Pittsburgh over 8.5 wins is a futures pairing with a simple story: one team spent 2025 proving the 2024 magic was rented, the other spent 2025 quietly cashing the same 10-win ticket it always cashes. Speaking of these bets, NFL WIN TOTALS are a popular way for fans to get involved before the season begins.

Washington Commanders – UNDER 7.5 WINS

Last year they went 5-12 after 12-5 in 2024. That is not a bump in the road. That is a sinkhole with a gift shop.

The Commanders scored 20.9 points per game (22nd) and allowed 26.5 (27th). Opponents piled up 6,533 yards against this defense – most in the NFL. 

The expected record was only 6.2-10.8, so the five wins were not some cruel variance fluke. They were about what the product deserved.

The collapse had a plot: 3-2 start, then an eight-game losing streak, QB Jayden Daniels and WR Terry McLaurin missing chunks of the year, and a defense that treated first downs like an open-bar policy. They forced 10 turnovers and committed 23. You cannot live in the NFC East giving the ball away and inviting everyone else to practice their two-minute drill.

Books have them at 7.5, which already prices in a bounce. Getting from 5 wins to 8 still requires health, an offensive line that does not play matador, and a defense that stops ranking 32nd in yards. 

That is a lot of homework for a team that just finished 3-9 in conference play. In many cases, evaluating NFL WIN TOTALS can highlight potential value on these types of under bets.

Washington’s 2024 season was a rom-com. 2025 was the sequel where the couple gets a flat tire, loses the dog, and argues about whose turn it is to call AAA. Betting the under is just assuming they have not suddenly become reliable narrators.

Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 8.5 WINS

The Steelers were 10-7, won the AFC North, and scored 23.4 ppg (15th) while allowing 22.8 (17th). It was their third straight 10-7 finish. 

The Steelers expected record 8.8-8.2, so they slightly outperformed the math, which is the Steelers in a nutshell, never pretty, never under .500.

They generated 48 sacks (6th) and stayed functional even when the offense ranked 25th in yards. That is the floor. 

A team that already clears 8.5 three years running does not need a renaissance. It needs to avoid a 6-win implosion. Pittsburgh does not do those.Yes, the playoff exit was a 30-6 faceplant against Houston. That is a January problem. 

The regular-season machine still printed 10 wins against a division that cooperated (Ravens 8-9, Bengals 6-11, Browns 5-12). The Ravens lost head coach Harbaugh, the Bengals are one injury away to Burrows and the Browns are still the Browns.

Over 8.5 is not “Super Bowl or bust.” It is “Pittsburgh remains Pittsburgh.” If they get even a modest offensive bump under the new coaching staff, QB Rodgers plays at a similar level to last year and the D keeps generating pressure, 9 or 10 wins is the default setting, not a miracle. For that reason, the Steelers are a staple of nfl WIN TOTALS bettors looking for steady teams.

IN A SNAPSHOT

  • Commanders under 7.5: last year’s defense ranked last in yards, the point differential was minus-95, and 5-12 already included the bounce-back hope people are still pricing.
  • Steelers over 8.5: 10-7, 10-7, 10-7. The number is 8.5. This is not advanced calculus.

Neither bet needs the teams to become something new. Washington just has to keep being 2025 Washington enough of the time. Pittsburgh just has to keep being a .580 football team. Ultimately, anyone interested in nfl WIN TOTALS should consider consistency and trends shown in past seasons when making their decisions.

Cheers – Marty at Point Train Consulting

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Ram vs 49ers Week 1 betting Preview

Rams vs 49ers Week 1

Rams vs. 49ers Week 1 betting preview (Thursday, Sept. 10, 2026, 8:35 p.m. ET at Melbourne Cricket Ground, Australia). Neutral-site international opener on Netflix.

Opening vs. current numbers

Opening consensus (mid-summer books): Rams -2.5, total 49.5.

Current consensus (as of Thursday): Rams -3.5, total 48.5. Moneylines generally sit around Rams -190 to -210 / 49ers +160 to +190, with juice varying by book (e.g., -3.5 -110/-112 on the favorite side is common). FanDuel showed the spread opening at -3.5 and the total dropping from 49.5 to 48.5. The line has been relatively stable at -3.5 since late July after an early move from -2.5.

The half-point move through 3 is notable because 3 is a key number; books and sharp money often treat crossing it as meaningful.

Recent history and stylistic notes

These teams split their two 2025 meetings: 49ers 26-23 in OT (Week 5) and Rams 42-26 (Week 10). Combined 117 points across those games. Rams have won four of the last five overall meetings, but Sean McVay is 8-11 straight-up against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers in their last 19 games, with only four of those Rams wins coming by 4+ points. Close, physical, possession-style games have been the recent pattern even when one side has more talent on paper.

Rams:

led the NFL in scoring (30.5 ppg) and yards (394.6). 49ers were solid but more mid-pack on both sides after injuries. Offenses feature Matthew Stafford (high-volume, efficient) vs. Brock Purdy with Christian McCaffrey as the focal point.Personnel and injury picture (final reports)Rams: Myles Garrett (new addition, reigning DPOY) is expected to debut and practiced fully despite earlier knee management. Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams, Davante Adams, and most of the offensive line are available. Aaron Donald (returned from retirement) did not travel and is out. A couple of secondary/linebacker spots had minor designations earlier in the week but cleared. Nearly full strength besides Donald.

49ers:

George Kittle (Achilles, January) and Nick Bosa (ACL) are both off the injury report and will play; Shanahan has said snaps will be monitored. Christian McCaffrey and Mike Evans (offseason addition) are healthy. DT Alfred Collins is out (patellar tendon). A few other defensive linemen and linebackers were limited earlier but most have no game designation. Depth on the interior line is thinner than last year.

Key matchup layers:

Rams pass rush (Garrett + rest of the front) vs. Purdy’s protection and McCaffrey’s dual-threat role; 49ers pass rush (Bosa returning) vs. Stafford’s quick-release offense that was elite last year.Situational/travel factorsNeutral site in Melbourne — first regular-season NFL game in Australia. Kickoff is Friday morning local time. Reports indicated the 49ers arrived earlier in the week while the Rams’ travel window was tighter. International games historically produce mixed results on totals and can introduce rust or unusual energy; McVay’s Rams have been strong in prior international contests (3-0 under him in those games, all comfortable wins). Weather looks playable: cool (highs around 16°C / low 60s°F during the day), partly cloudy, light winds, low rain chance. No major wind or precipitation expected to suppress passing.

Market and public lean notes

Public betting splits have been mixed, with a slight lean toward the Rams on the moneyline/spread in some books and a near-even or slight under lean on the total in others. The total coming down a point from the opener is the clearest directional move. Divisional familiarity + early-season rust + travel are the usual talking points books price in.

Useful angles for your own decision: how much you trust Week 1 rust vs. talent gap, whether you think Kittle/Bosa snap counts or Donald’s absence swing the line, and whether last year’s scoring environment (especially the 68-point game) or the coaching history of tight finishes is more predictive here. Check your book’s exact juice and any alternate lines (Rams -2.5 or 49ers +4.5 often available) closer to kickoff.

Since 2015 (post extra-point move): 96-79 Under (54.9%) NFL Week 1 Unders.

Week 1 divisional dogs are 35-20 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI since 2016.

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J's Plays NFL Week 1 - Home Favorite With Major Matchup EdgeJ's Plays NFL Week 1 - Home Favorite With Major Matchup Edge
$25.00
This matchup features a proven home team facing an opponent with serious questions on both…
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J's Plays Week 2 - ROAD WINNERJ's Plays Week 2 - ROAD WINNER
$25.00
Jay’s Plays kicked off Week 1 with a Road Winner taking North Texas State to…
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Nelly's | NCAA | Saturday Knockout | 67% RUNNelly's | NCAA | Saturday Knockout | 67% RUN
Original price was: $30.00.Current price is: $25.00.
Nelly’s has a KNOCKOUT WINNER on Saturday for college football action as we look to…
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Nelly's | NCAA | Saturday Prime Time Winner | 67% StartNelly's | NCAA | Saturday Prime Time Winner | 67% Start
Original price was: $30.00.Current price is: $25.00.
Nelly’s is 4-2 in the young college football season with a great start after a…
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Nelly's | NFL | Division Delivery | 1-0 startNelly's | NFL | Division Delivery | 1-0 start
Original price was: $30.00.Current price is: $25.00.
Nelly’s won on Wednesday for a 1-0 start to the NFL season – join us…
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Nelly's | NFL | Early AFC vs. NFC Winner | 1-0 StartNelly's | NFL | Early AFC vs. NFC Winner | 1-0 Start
Original price was: $30.00.Current price is: $25.00.
Nelly’s started our NFL season 1-0 with a win in Wednesday’s Super Bowl rematch -…
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Nelly's | Sunday | AFC Showcase Winner | 1-0 StartNelly's | Sunday | AFC Showcase Winner | 1-0 Start
Original price was: $30.00.Current price is: $25.00.
Nelly’s won on Wednesday for a 1-0 start to the NFL season – join us…
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Point Train - WEEKEND WIPEOUT - Thurs-Mon ALL College + NFLPoint Train - WEEKEND WIPEOUT - Thurs-Mon ALL College + NFL
$49.97
Point Train stands 4-2 on the year in football after a 1-2 Sat & Sun….