Category: Freepicks

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NFL Free Bet today | Titans vs Texans Prediction | Sept 28 2025

#263 ASA NFL FREE today on: Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Really tough ask for Houston to win this rivalry game by more than a TD when they simply struggle to score points. 

The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging 12.7 PPG putting up 9, 10 and 19 points in their 3 games this season.  The Texans are 0-3 ATS losing by an average of 4 PPG to the number. 

Tennessee hasn’t been great offensively but they have scored at least 19 points in 2 of their 3 games and that should get it done here.  In those 2 games the Titans faced the LA Rams and Indianapolis, 2 of the  top 5 offenses in the NFL, and couldn’t keep up despite scoring 19 and 20 points. 

That shouldn’t be a case here facing a Houston team that is averaging just 267 YPG (29th), ranks dead last in 3rd down conversion rate at 24% and scores only 1 point for every 21 yards gained (31st). 

This AFC South rivalry has been closely contested with 9 of the last 10 decided by single digits and the dog has covered 7 of the last 9. 

If we can get 2 TD’s from Tennessee, that just might be enough to get this cover in what is expected to be a low scoring game (lowest total on the board at 39)  Take the points with the Titans as ASA’s NFL free bet today.   

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Free Bet Today | Sun Belt Showdown | Sept 27 2025

ASAwins Free Bet Today: #179 Marshall -1.5 at Louisiana Lafayette, 8pm ET

ULL has some major concerns at the quarterback position after the loss or QB Walker Howard, who was injured in the season opener against Rice. Daniel Beale has filled in but has been less than effective with 313 total passing yards on 50.7% completions with 1 TD and 2 INT’s.

The O-line doesn’t help matters as they are one of the worst in the nation when it comes to efficiency stats with a sack percentage allowed of 7.23% (96th). The Cajuns are scoring just 17.7ppg, rank 129th in total yards per game (267) at 4.8 yards per play (107th).

ULL is coming off a road loss to Eastern Michigan who rates significantly lower in our ratings compared to Marshall. The Herd are coming off an impressive 42-28 win at Middle Tennessee State with QB Del Rio-Wilson completing 18/22 passes for 261 yards and 4 TD’s.

Marshall averaged 6.1YPP in that game against MTU and outgained the Blue Raiders by 75-total yards. The Herd are averaging 180 rushing yards per game (58th) this season and will face a ULL defense allowing 215 rushing yards per game (129th).

The Cajuns strength is also running the football at 199ypg, but the Herd defense allows the 35th fewest rushing yards per game at 102.5 and we already discussed their passing woes. Marshall went to Louisiana last season as a 5-point underdog and won 31-3, outgaining ULL by 155 total yards.

This one may be just as ugly. Take the road team as today’s free bet.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mercury vs Lynx | Over or Under? Sept 23 2025

ASAwins WNBA Free bet on UNDER 159.5 Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx, 7:30pm ET

The trend in this rivalry has been UNDER this season with 5 straight clashes staying below the posted number. WNBA games averaged 163 total points this season with roughly 135 field goal attempts. In the five meetings between these two teams this season the average total points scored is 148.8ppg. A big reason why this has been lower scoring is the defenses for both teams. The Lynx have the lowest Defensive Net rating in the league at 97.5, the Mercury rank 5th at 100.4. Minnesota has the 2nd best FG% defense in the league, holding opponents to 42.1% shooting. Phoenix has the 4th best FG% D allowing 42.3% shooting by opponents. We don’t see these two teams getting into the 160’s in this one. Bet UNDER.

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MLB FREE BET | Guardians vs Twins prediction | Sept 21

ASA’s MLB free bet Sunday September 21st

#915 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians -135 over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET 

We could honestly make this write-up just one sentence but we will, of course, give more than just this key factor: The Guardians have won 10 games in a row!  While the Tigers are mired in a slump, Cleveland is on fire and has closed the gap to just a 1-game deficit in the AL Central! 

Best of all for Guardians fans, they have a series with Detroit starting Tuesday and they can control their own destiny if they take care of business the rest of the way!  That said, this game is ultra important for Cleveland after yesterday’s double-header sweep in which the Guardians outscored the Twins by a combined 14-0! 

Not only has Cleveland won 10 in a row and 15 of the last 16, the Twins are on a 19-41 run and memorably gave up at the trade deadline as they unloaded players left and right! 

Minnesota enters this one a particularly cold 10-28 last 38 games!  Simeon Woods Richardson has been better of late for the Twins but he still has a 5.27 ERA since the All-Star break. 

The Guardians Joey Cantillo has a 2.89 ERA on the road this season and a 2.44 ERA since the All-Star break and he has been in fantastic form in recent starts. 

This is a great price on a red hot team and it is because Richardson has been in good form in most recent starts and that is keeping this line low.  The fact is the hotter team, and a hot starter in Cantillo, is very undervalued here.  The road team is the bet in this one.  

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Free Bet | Michigan State vs USC | Sept 20 2025

ASAwins FREE BET – OVER 55: Michigan State Spartans at USC Trojans – 11 PM ET

This Big Ten showdown screams fireworks and we predict a shootout in the Coliseum late this evening. USC’s offense ranks No. 1 nationally in total yards (604 per game) and No. 2 in scoring (55 points per game), led by QB Jayden Maiava’s —989 passing yards, 6 TDs, and 0 INTs so far—while averaging a blistering 9.6 yards per play (tops in FBS).

They gashed Purdue for 460 yards without punting last week, leaving points on the table in a 33-17 win, and their 12.8 yards per pass attempt (No. 2) should provide explosive plays with WR Ja’Kobi Lane exploiting the Spartans secondary.

Michigan State’s secondary? A sieve, ranking 118th in passing yards allowed (273.3 YPG) and coughing up 25 completions per game through the air, with 5.4 yards per play surrendered overall (86th).

Flip to MSU’s side: Dual-threat QB Aidan Chiles has Sparty averaging 35.3 points per game, exploding for 42 and 41 in their last two outings behind a balanced attack (168 rushing YPG, 68th).

USC’s D, stout against the run (86.3 YPG allowed), ranks just 82nd in points allowed per play (0.4) and could bend under Chiles’ mobility.

ASA’s Models projects 62 in this Big Ten showdown.

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