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MLB free bet | Sept 8th | Nelly Sports

MLB free bet from Nelly Sports – Friday #953/954 UNDER 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds 6:40 PM ET

Even in a lost season the Cardinals are still playing hard, taking two of three with Atlanta this week while 5-3 in the past eight games. St. Louis has experienced a recent uptick in production at the plate, scoring five or more runs in seven of those eight games but the Cardinals also scored a total of four runs in four games just prior to that. On the season St. Louis has a .735 team OPS vs. left-handers for a significant decline compared to pairings vs. right-handers and over the past 10 games the Cardinals have averaged just 4.0 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching, batting .229. Andrew Abbott poses a difficult matchup for St. Louis as the rookie left-hander has excellent numbers in 17 starts as just a 24-year old, drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. Abbott had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors and has delivered a 9.9 K/9 in his 95 MLB innings with a 3.22 ERA. Drew Rom is only 23 years old and his ascension to the MLB level has not produced as strong of results, though he has only made three starts. His ERA is 7.24 to boost tonight’s total but his FIP is nearly two runs lower and he has made two adequate starts since an ugly MLB debut in which he allowed eight runs while getting 11 outs. Rom had a 10.5 K/9 in AAA with the Orioles before being dealt to St. Louis and in two starts at AAA for the Cardinals he had a 14.7 K/9 and an 0.82 ERA as he earned an opportunity and could start to put things together. While the Reds have decent numbers vs. left-handers for the season, they have hit just .203 with 1.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. lefties and Cincinnati has been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games overall. Neither bullpen has been in ideal form of late, but the Reds did have an off day Thursday while the Cardinals managed to use only two relievers for short outings last night. St. Louis lost 8-5 yesterday after winning two games in Atlanta but there were only 18 hits in the game and the Cardinals hit .429 with runners in scoring position, scoring five runs in a game they had just one extra-base hit in. 16 of the past 20 Cincinnati home games have featured 10 or fewer runs despite a high scoring reputation for the ballpark and the recent elevated scoring trends for both teams. 

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ASA MLB free bet June 11

ASA play on: UNDER 8.5 Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros, 4:10PM ET

We don’t see many runs being scored in today’s game between the Marlins and Astros and will bet UNDER here. Even though Houston is one of better teams in league at 36-22 and 1st in the A.L. West, they don’t average a lot of runs per game (23rd at 4.10RPG) and hits per game (21st). Houston is facing a pitcher they haven’t seen before in lefty Braxton Garrett, not to mention they average hit just .222 against lefties which ranks 26th in MLB. Houston will go with starting pitcher Framber Valdez who is 6-2 with an ERA of 2.61 which is 14th best in the league. The Astros have won his last 6 starts and he’s given up just 12 runs on 35 total hits. Even in his 2 most recent losses he pitched well giving up only 3 earned runs on 6 hits in 12.1 innings pitched. Miami is 11th in runs per game at 4.52 but don’t hit lefties well at all with the worst OBP% and a team batting average of .206 which is also last in MLB. The Marlins have had a few higher scoring games, but they came against Washington and at Colorado who rank 29th and 30th in runs allowed per game this season. The Astros are 2nd in the league allowing just 3.38 runs per game with their best pitcher on the mound. Bet Under.

Scott Rickenbach MLB free bet June 5

Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach Sunday Free Pick OVER 9 in Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals @ 1:40 ET – The Nationals won 10-8 over the Reds yesterday as both these teams continue to give up piles of runs. Only Colorado (and remember their home games in the thin air of Denver!) have allowed more runs this season than Washington and Cincinnati have. Look for another wild one this afternoon in Cincinnati. The Nats Corbin is having an awful season including 0-4 with 8.17 ERA in road games this season. Luis Castillo has been pitching well for the Reds lately but does have a 4.65 ERA in his two home starts this season. He is 0-4 with a 4.94 ERA against the Nationals also in his five career starts against them. Over is 17-7 in Reds home games this season and 17-8 in Nats games this season. Free Pick OVER 9 in Cincinnati.

Scott Rickenbach MLB free bet June 4

Scott “The Bulldog” Rickenbach Free Pick OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs vs St Louis Cardinals @ 7:15 ET – No matter who pitches today in Game 2 of this double header I feel we have excellent line value with the over. Yesterday both teams swung the bats well and piled up hits. Also, this total has gone from a 9.5 to a 9 to an 8.5 and I do understand that there is a north wind and it will be a bit of a cool evening at Wrigley Field. However, this total moving down is only serving to give us more line value here. The Cubs are on an 11-4 run to the over. The Cardinals are on a 9-4-2 run to the over. Look for both teams to continue swinging the bats well in the 2nd game of this twin-bill. Free Pick OVER 8.5 in Chicago Cubs (Game 2 of 2) Saturday.