Tag: MLB bets

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MLB FREE BET | Guardians vs Twins prediction | Sept 21

ASA’s MLB free bet Sunday September 21st

#915 ASA PLAY ON Cleveland Guardians -135 over Minnesota Twins, Sunday at 2:10 PM ET 

We could honestly make this write-up just one sentence but we will, of course, give more than just this key factor: The Guardians have won 10 games in a row!  While the Tigers are mired in a slump, Cleveland is on fire and has closed the gap to just a 1-game deficit in the AL Central! 

Best of all for Guardians fans, they have a series with Detroit starting Tuesday and they can control their own destiny if they take care of business the rest of the way!  That said, this game is ultra important for Cleveland after yesterday’s double-header sweep in which the Guardians outscored the Twins by a combined 14-0! 

Not only has Cleveland won 10 in a row and 15 of the last 16, the Twins are on a 19-41 run and memorably gave up at the trade deadline as they unloaded players left and right! 

Minnesota enters this one a particularly cold 10-28 last 38 games!  Simeon Woods Richardson has been better of late for the Twins but he still has a 5.27 ERA since the All-Star break. 

The Guardians Joey Cantillo has a 2.89 ERA on the road this season and a 2.44 ERA since the All-Star break and he has been in fantastic form in recent starts. 

This is a great price on a red hot team and it is because Richardson has been in good form in most recent starts and that is keeping this line low.  The fact is the hotter team, and a hot starter in Cantillo, is very undervalued here.  The road team is the bet in this one.  

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MLB free bet | Sept 8th | Nelly Sports

MLB free bet from Nelly Sports – Friday #953/954 UNDER 10.5 St. Louis Cardinals/Cincinnati Reds 6:40 PM ET

Even in a lost season the Cardinals are still playing hard, taking two of three with Atlanta this week while 5-3 in the past eight games. St. Louis has experienced a recent uptick in production at the plate, scoring five or more runs in seven of those eight games but the Cardinals also scored a total of four runs in four games just prior to that. On the season St. Louis has a .735 team OPS vs. left-handers for a significant decline compared to pairings vs. right-handers and over the past 10 games the Cardinals have averaged just 4.0 runs per nine vs. southpaw pitching, batting .229. Andrew Abbott poses a difficult matchup for St. Louis as the rookie left-hander has excellent numbers in 17 starts as just a 24-year old, drafted in the 2nd round in 2021. Abbott had incredible strikeout numbers in the minors and has delivered a 9.9 K/9 in his 95 MLB innings with a 3.22 ERA. Drew Rom is only 23 years old and his ascension to the MLB level has not produced as strong of results, though he has only made three starts. His ERA is 7.24 to boost tonight’s total but his FIP is nearly two runs lower and he has made two adequate starts since an ugly MLB debut in which he allowed eight runs while getting 11 outs. Rom had a 10.5 K/9 in AAA with the Orioles before being dealt to St. Louis and in two starts at AAA for the Cardinals he had a 14.7 K/9 and an 0.82 ERA as he earned an opportunity and could start to put things together. While the Reds have decent numbers vs. left-handers for the season, they have hit just .203 with 1.1 runs per nine in the past 10 games vs. lefties and Cincinnati has been held to four or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games overall. Neither bullpen has been in ideal form of late, but the Reds did have an off day Thursday while the Cardinals managed to use only two relievers for short outings last night. St. Louis lost 8-5 yesterday after winning two games in Atlanta but there were only 18 hits in the game and the Cardinals hit .429 with runners in scoring position, scoring five runs in a game they had just one extra-base hit in. 16 of the past 20 Cincinnati home games have featured 10 or fewer runs despite a high scoring reputation for the ballpark and the recent elevated scoring trends for both teams. 

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MLB Free bet | Nelly Sportsline | Aug 15th

Free pick – #969 Philadelphia Phillies (Wheeler) -110 over Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi) 6:07 PM CT

Enjoy this MLB free bet from Nelly today. The lack of production over the weekend for Philadelphia was shocking, scoring just one run Saturday and Sunday in losses at home following a run of ten straight games with at least four runs. The Phillies have still averaged 5.6 runs per game in August while +23 in scoring as this is an elite NL contender that has a chance to repeat as NL champions, even if will again have to come through a wild card path. Philadelphia is 40-22 since June 3 and Zack Wheeler remains one of the best pitchers in the NL. His FIP of 3.06 is the fourth best in all of MLB among qualified starters even if he isn’t getting much attention in the Cy Young race, after finishing second in 2021 for the award. Yusei Kikuchi is having his best MLB season, but his FIP is 4.52 compared to his 3.53 ERA as a lot has gone right. His home run rate remains very high and while his run of starts since the All-Star break has been excellent, it seems like a significant outlier stretch against his career numbers. The Blue Jays do have excellent relief pitching numbers in recent weeks, but the unit was taxed over the weekend getting only one start of six innings over the past four games. In the past 10 games Philadelphia has averaged 7.8 runs per nine while batting .277 vs. left-handers, while posting a 21-16 record on the season vs. left-handed starters as this should be a favorable matchup for the Phillies to deliver, after being shutdown by quality right-handers over the weekend. The Blue Jays are just 34-42 vs. winning teams this season as Toronto hasn’t looked like the serious contender most expected to see this season. 

Take advantage of Nelly’s MLB picks here at ASAwins.com!

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The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwin / ASA), Lee Kostroski and Mike Merlet, bring a combined 55+ years of professional sports betting and handicapping experience. Both began their careers at Doc’s Enterprises — Lee in the late 1980s and Mike in the early 1990s. Obviously, learning the trade from one of the industry’s OG’s in Morey Moseman and one of the most established firms in the business. In 1997 they founded ASAwins and have delivered consistent results for clients ever since.
ASAwins is widely recognized as one of the top Big Game handicappers in the country. ASA has posted a winning record on Top Games in 18 of their 25 football seasons. One game stands out more than the rest, the 10-Star Midwest Game of the Year.  Based in Madison, Wisconsin, ASA’s expertise is rooted in the heart of college football country, with a strong focus on Big Ten and Midwest programs.
Lee and Mike have appeared as expert football guests on radio shows across the United States. This includes markets in Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver. They were also featured on the ESPN website by gaming writer Chad Millman in the early 2000’s.

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Data, Research & Predictive AnalyticsASAwins does not rely on a single system. Instead, they combine multiple proven methods refined over decades:
  • A proprietary database spanning more than 30 years of detailed historical data
  • Weekly statistical analysis and film study of upcoming matchups
  • Insider contacts throughout the country, especially in the Midwest
  • Pointspread movement analysis compared against their own power ratings
  • Advanced predictive analytics and mathematical models that remove emotional bias

Every selection must pass this complete, multi-layered process before receiving the official ASA stamp of approval. This thorough approach has established Lee and Mike as two of the most tenured and respected professional sports handicappers in the industry.

Sports wagering is an investment. Put a proven, long-standing commodity to work for you. Lee and Mike of ASAwins have stood the test of time and continue to deliver the winning edge serious bettors demand.
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