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NFL Free Bet | Vikings vs Giants | Dec 21 2025

Point Train Free NFL Bet @NY Giants +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT – Dec 21 2025

  • This has been an automatic bet for us the last few weeks and the results have been solid (Ravens last week).
  • We have been tracking a few different betting markets at a public sportsbook and a sharp book and when the numbers don’t align – the results have been quite good.
  • The biggest betting indicator using this strategy is on the Giants this week plus the points at home against the Vikings.
  • Should the Vikings really be a road favorite here?
  • New York actually played better than the final score a week ago in their loss to the Commanders. NYG 384 total yards at 6.9YPPL – held Washington to 340 total yards 6.0YPPL.
  • Minnesota is off a win in Dallas but were outgained by nearly 100 total yards.
  • Yes, the G-men lost last week at home but take a look at their other home losses – Packers, Niners and Chiefs. They have beaten the Chargers and Eagles on this field this season.
  • It’s ugly for a reason – bet the Giants!

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NFL News & Notes | Oct 23 2025

NFLNEWS&NOTES

ASA’s NFL News & Notes – Oct 23 2025

CHICAGO BEARS â€“ The Bears topped New Orleans 26-14 on Sunday and have now won 4 straight games.  Believe it or not, that their longest winning streak in 6 years!  How have they done it?  Turnovers.  They have at least 3 takeaways in all 4 of their wins during that stretch and they created 4 takeaways in 3 of those games.  Their turnover margin during their 4 game winning streak is +13 which is insane for that short stretch of time.  In 2 of those wins, Chicago needed a FG as time expired to win vs Washington and they blocked a FG as time expired to win vs Las Vegas.  They were +3 turnovers in both of those games which wouldn’t often come down to last second FG situations for teams with a +3 turnover margin in a game.  They won each of those 2 games by 1 point.  The Bears have now moved into the top spot in the NFL at +11 turnover margin on the season which is 3 better than Jacksonville who sits with the 2nd best mark at +8.    

BALTIMORE RAVENS â€“ We don’t often see teams that have a record of 1-5 favored by nearly a TD over a team that is 4-2.  That’s what we have on Sunday with Baltimore -6.5 at home vs Chicago, who has won 4 straight games.  The expectation is that starting QB Lamar Jackson will be back after missing 3 games with a hamstring injury.  Jackson did not practice on Monday but prior to the bye head coach Jim Harbaugh was anticipating him back for this game.  The Birds were outscored 98-33 in the 3 games Jackson was out.  So, while offense has been an issue, their defense has been really bad as well.  They rank dead last allowing 32 PPG, they are 30th in total defense, and 27th in YPP defense.  For perspective, the Baltimore defense ranked 8th, 8th and 6th last year in those statistics.  They did have a rash of injuries on that side of the ball a few weeks ago and they are getting healthier on defense which should help.  Turnovers have also been an issue.  They have committed 10 turnovers through 6 games after committing 11 the entire season last year. 

NY JETS â€“ Man this Jets offense is bad.  They haven’t reached the endzone since October 5th.  In their last 2 games, they’ve totaled 302 yards on 127 plays which is a terrible 2.37 YPP.  They reached the redzone (opponents 20 yard line or closer) just twice in those 2 games and didn’t score a TD in either.  QB Justin Fields has completed 15 passes in the last 2 games combined and his yards per attempt was just 3.1.  They replaced him with Tyrod Taylor in last week’s loss vs Carolina.  Taylor proceeded to complete 45% of this passes and threw 2 interceptions.  They have not topped 4.6 YPP in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Jets defense hasn’t been much help with 1 takeaway the entire season.  The only winless team in the NFL travels to Cincinnati this weekend where they are a 6.5 point dog vs a team that hasn’t been favored since QB Joe Burrow went on the shelf.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS â€“ We mentioned a few weeks ago in this weekly article that the Jags had been a bit lucky this season.  They were 4-1 at the time, had a negative YPP differential and were living off their turnover margin, which at the time was #1 in the NFL.  They had a +7 turnover margin in their first 4 wins but were outgained on a YPP basis in 3 of those 4 wins.  We felt they their luck was getting ready to run out and we faded Jacksonville each of the last 2 weeks and picked up 2 wins.  In their games vs Seattle and the LA Rams, the turnover margin was even in both games and Jacksonville was outscored 55-19.  After last weekend they now rank 23rd in the NFL in YPP margin.  Coming back from their blowout loss to the Rams in London, they now have this week off before traveling to Las Vegas.

DENVER BRONCOS â€“ The Broncos became the first team in over 1,600 games that trailed by 18 or more with 6:00 minutes or less remaining the won the game.  They didn’t score a point in the first 3 quarters last week vs the Giants and then exploded for 33 points in the 4th quarter!  They scored their final 30 points all in the last 5:15 of the game.  The Broncos were 7 point favorites and led for a grand total of 1 minute and 14 seconds.  Denver is 2nd in the NFL in YPP margin behind only Seattle but their point differential is just +36 (9th in the NFL) despite their 5-2 record.  All of their games with the exception of their big win vs Cincinnati, have come by one score (both wins and losses).    

CLEVELAND BROWNS â€“ The Browns offense broke through for 31 points last week vs Miami.  Prior to that, Cleveland had scored 17 points or less in 11 straight games.  So is the Cleveland offense heading in the right direction after their breakout performance?  We doubt it.  Sure they scored 31 points but they only had 206 total yards and averaged just 3.9 YPP.  They benefitted from 4 Miami turnovers and scored 21 of their 31 points directly off of those turnovers including a pick 6.  Rookie QB Gabriel has done a nice job of protecting the ball in his 3 starts (0 turnovers) but he’s completed less than 60% of his passes in 2 of those games and he’s averaging a paltry 5.1 yards per pass attempt.  The Browns offense still ranks 28th or lower in scoring, total offense, YPP, rushing YPG, and passing YPG.  They head to New England on Sunday to try and win back to back games for the first time since 2023.    

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS â€“ After starting 0-2 with home losses vs LA Chargers and Baltimore, the Chiefs look like they just might be the best team in the NFL right now.  They’ve won 4 of the last 5 and in their 1 loss during that stretch they outgained Jacksonville 7.6 YPP to 5.9 YPP.  A 99 yard pick 6 for the Jags was the difference and even with that they needed a TD in the waning seconds to win by 3 points.  Their 4 wins have come by an average margin of +18.5 points and they’ve outgained their last 5 opponents by over 600 combined yards.  They are now the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top 5 in both total offense and total defense.  Two of their top offensive playmakers returned from injury (Xavier Worthy) and suspension (Rashee Rice) and after a slow start Mahomes has now completed over 70% of his passes over the last 3 games.  On the season he has 14 TD passes and just 2 interceptions and he’s rushed for 250 yards on 6.0 YPC.  The oddsmakers have made the adjustment with KC favored by 10.5 next Monday night vs Washington (who will most likely be without QB Jayden Daniels).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS â€“ The Pats have quietly put together a 4 game winning streak and have moved to 5-2 on the season.  However, we’re not sure what to think of this team quite yet.  They’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL to date and on top of that they have the easiest remaining schedule as well.  Of their final 10 games, only 2 opponents currently have a record above .500 (Bucs, and Bils).  Their other 8 remaining opponents have a current combined record of 12-42.  Despite that east schedule, their YPP margin is -0.15 which is 20th in the NFL.  3 of their 5 wins have come against the Titans, Saints, and Dolphins who have a combined record of 3-18.  They have a loss vs Las Vegas who sits at 2-5 on the season.  New England just pushed through their tough scheduling spot (3 straight road games) with wins @ Buffalo, @ New Orleans, and @ Tennessee.  QB Drake Maye has a top 5 QBR and has already thrown 12 TD’s (15 all of last year) and has only 2 interceptions (10 last year).   

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NFL Free Bet | Eagles vs Vikings | Oct 19 2025

Point Train NFL Free Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 in the First Half @ Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT

RATING: 3UNIT

  • We don’t trust the Eagles for the full game but feel they’ll come out an play very well and inspired in the first half coming off a terrible loss vs the Giants
  • The Eagles average 14.8 points in the first half this year which is 4th in the NFL.  Their first half point margin is +1.8 per game
  • The Eagles have trailed at half in only 2 of their 6 games vs Rams and Giants
  • The Eagles are averaging 2.83 points per drive in the first half which is 6th best in the NFL
  • The Vikings have trailed at the half in 4 of their 5 games this season. 
  • The Vikings are averaging just 11.8 points in the first half and they’ve scored only 3 offensive TD’s in the first half this season
  • The Vikings have scored TD’s on only 3 of their 29 first half possessions this season which is barely a 10% rate – that ranks 28th in the NFL
  • We anticipate the Eagles getting off to a fast start and leading at the half

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NFL Free Bet today | Titans vs Texans Prediction | Sept 28 2025

#263 ASA NFL FREE today on: Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Really tough ask for Houston to win this rivalry game by more than a TD when they simply struggle to score points. 

The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging 12.7 PPG putting up 9, 10 and 19 points in their 3 games this season.  The Texans are 0-3 ATS losing by an average of 4 PPG to the number. 

Tennessee hasn’t been great offensively but they have scored at least 19 points in 2 of their 3 games and that should get it done here.  In those 2 games the Titans faced the LA Rams and Indianapolis, 2 of the  top 5 offenses in the NFL, and couldn’t keep up despite scoring 19 and 20 points. 

That shouldn’t be a case here facing a Houston team that is averaging just 267 YPG (29th), ranks dead last in 3rd down conversion rate at 24% and scores only 1 point for every 21 yards gained (31st). 

This AFC South rivalry has been closely contested with 9 of the last 10 decided by single digits and the dog has covered 7 of the last 9. 

If we can get 2 TD’s from Tennessee, that just might be enough to get this cover in what is expected to be a low scoring game (lowest total on the board at 39)  Take the points with the Titans as ASA’s NFL free bet today.   

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Nov 17th 2024

NFL Player Prop Bets – Free prop bets for Sunday, Nov 17th 2024

Ravens Lamar Jackson over 42.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Jackson has surpassed 45 rushing yards in seven of his ten games this season. In the previous two weeks he has not needed to use his legs as much, shredding the Broncos and Bengals in the midst of throwing 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He matches up against the Steelers and their second ranked scoring defense on the road this Sunday. A better defense actually suits Jackson’s rushing prop as he will be forced to run more rather than get what he wants from the pocket. Lamar has only played in 2 of the previous 6 games against Pittsburgh, and he rushed for 55 and 45 yards respectively. Expect Jackson to return to his scrambling ways in a huge divisional matchup in the highest projected point total of the weekend. 

49ers Christian McCaffrey Over 27.5 Rec Yards (-120)

CMC was finally back last week and totalled 107 yards with 68 receiving yards on seven targets. With such involvement in the passing game, especially after missing every game so far this season, McCaffrey will see plenty of volume once again. Another hotly contested division game has the second highest O/U of week 11. Seattle has a middle of the road defense but can fill it up on offense. Points should be plentiful and if CMC plays 88% of the running back snaps again, it’s hard to imagine he does not amass his receiving total. 

Dolphins Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+120) 

Hill caught his first touchdown since week one in last week’s win vs the Rams. Since Tua has been back, the Dolphins offense went from abysmal to just mediocre. With so many weapons and Tyreek’s immense talent it’s only a matter of time before Miami gets back on track. Hill had so many explosive plays and 13 TDs last season. Las Vegas ranks 30th in points allowed in 2024 and if Reek is ever going to have a breakout game, its going to be after a big win while gaining chemistry back with his quarterback against a bad team. Hill has nine targets the past two games combined which is unacceptable. The squeaky wheel treatment better be in store for the NFLs fastest man. 

Colts Jonathon Taylor – Over 81.5 Rush Yards (-110)

Taylor has been over this rushing total in 5 of seven games this season and with the QB change back to Richardson, the Colts should feed Taylor and pound the football against a suspect Jets D. Taylor averages over this number on the season and is averaging 18 carries per game so we know he’ll get his share of carries. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and anchor an offense that averages 4.7 yards per rush, 9th most in the NFL. The Jets defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing 134 rushing yards per game 25th most in the NFL. Opposing teams have run the football on average 31 times per game against the Jets, 3rd highest number in the league.

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