Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets

Jokic MVP odds

Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board

As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought by voters. That number feels like a gift for bettors who actually look at the numbers instead of the narrative.

Let’s run the tape. Jokić is putting up 27.9 points per game (7th in the NBA), but he’s miles ahead of the flashier counting stats that voters love. He leads the league in rebounding at 12.9 RPG—Wembanyama is a distant 5th at 11.4. He’s also No. 1 in assists at 10.8 APG; Shai is back in 18th at 6.5. Both Jokić and Wemby have played 60-61 games. Shai has suited up for 64, yet the Serbian big man still posts the second-best PER in basketball (32.5-32.6 range), trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo—who’s played just 34-36 games and is effectively out of the conversation.

Jokić is the only player in the top tier doing everything at an elite level. He’s not just scoring—he’s orchestrating the Nuggets’ offense like a point guard in a 7-footer’s body while dominating the glass. Efficiency? Off the charts. Wins above replacement and advanced metrics back it up. Yet the betting market and media have him as a distant long shot behind SGA (31.6 PPG on a presumed top seed) and Wemby (the shiny new superstar on a Spurs team rolling at a .760 clip).

So why the disrespect? Voter fatigue is real. Jokić already has three MVPs. NBA awards historically punish repeat winners once the “new shiny toy” narrative kicks in—see the love for Wemby’s two-way explosion or SGA’s scoring explosion on what looks like the league’s best team. Denver sits at 48-28 with 6 games to play, solid but not the juggernaut OKC or San Antonio have been. Narrative > stats in MVP voting, and the story right now is “SGA carries the No. 1 seed” or “Wemby is the future.” That’s exactly why +6000 is screaming value. Jokić has been the best all-around player in the league again. He leads the NBA in rebounding and assists while posting top-10 scoring on elite efficiency. His PER sits second only to a guy who barely played half a season. If the Nuggets close strong and Jokić keeps triple-double hunting, the advanced-stat crowd (and any voter who actually watches film) will remember who’s been the most valuable night in and night out. At +6000, you’re getting 60-1 implied odds on a player who’s been the best in the league by most objective measures. That’s not a long shot—that’s a mispriced gift. If you’re betting MVP futures, the Joker at plus money this big is the play. The numbers don’t lie. The market just isn’t listening.

We won’t make a large wager on this but will make a small investment instead. It’s not about stats or who is the best player, it’s political and biased and decided by uninformed, biased sports writers.

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NHL Free Bet | Devils vs Rangers | March 31 2026

ASA NHL Free Bet – NJ Devils -110 at NY Rangers, 7pm ET

Tonight’s Free NHL Betting Pick: New Jersey Devils ML over New York Rangers The New Jersey Devils remain a live playoff long shot and a team worth backing until they’re mathematically eliminated, especially against a struggling Rangers squad. New Jersey enters this Madison Square Garden matchup as slight road favorites (around -115 to -120) after dominating the season series 2-0, outscoring the Rangers 12-6 while outshooting them by 36 total shots. The Rangers’ home woes 11-18-7 on their home ice, 3-10-4 as a home dog have us on the visitor here. The Devils will have Markstrom between the pipes who is on a solid 7-4 run with a 2.81 GAA and a .889 save percentage over that stretch of games. The Rangers will counter with Igor Shesterkin in goal who is 5-4-1 in his last ten starts with a 2.92 GAA and a .906 save percentage. With the Devils on a perfect 3-0 streak as a road favorite this is a prime spot to ride New Jersey on the moneyline.

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NBA free bet | Pacers vs. Clippers | March 27 2026

ASA NBA free bet on Indiana Pacers +8.5 vs. LA Clippers, 7:10pm ET

Our model likes the value with the Indiana Pacers here at home tonight against the visiting LA Clippers. These two teams met in early March in Los Angeles which had the Clippers an -11.5-point favorite on their home court. The natural swing in spreads/venues should have the Clippers a much smaller favorite here. Not only that, but the Lakers just played the Pacers on this floor and were favored by the exact same spread and they are in the midst of a blistering 13-2 streak and currently sit 3rd in the Western Conference. Indiana is 1-3 SU in their last four games, but they have covered all four ATS, a clear indication they are being undervalued by the oddsmakers. The Clippers can’t be trusted as a road favorite this season with a 5-9 ATS record and an average margin of victory in those games of just +0.2ppg. We don’t trust this Los Angeles team on the road in general with a 16-21 SU record and an average plus/minus of -2.3ppg. Despite their struggles and tanking the Pacers are 20-16 ATS at home on the season with an average loss margin of -5.4ppg which is well within the margin of tonight’s point spread. Grab the points here with the Pacers.

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NBA Player prop bet | Celtics vs Grizzlies | March 20 2026

ASA NBA play prop bet OVER 4.5 Rebounds Baylor Scheierman – Boston Celtics

Scheierman has done a fantastic job on the board in recent games, going OVER his rebound prop in 6 straight games and grabbing 4 or more in 11 of his last thirteen games. He has gone OVER 4.5 rebounds in 14 of the last 20 for a 70% hit rate. Similar players against the Grizzlies have gone OVER their rebound prop 6 of eight. If this game turns into a blowout as expected, Sheierman will get extended playing time and an opportunity to stat pad.

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March Madness Future Bets | Illinois South Region +325

Here’s a taste of the 9 regional future bets you get with your package: We hit 3/4 Final 4 bets a year ago!

SOUTH REGION

ASA MARCH MADNESS FUTURE BET – PLAY ILLINOIS +325 to win the South Region

This is the toughest region in our opinion.  All teams in the South Region are plus money and the top 3 seeds all sit in the top 7 of KenPom’s overall rankings. 

We feel it’s toss up between 1-see Florida, 2-seed Houston, and 3-seed Illinois, and are all within 2 points of each other on a neutral court.  Because of that, let’s grab the best odds and the Illini at +325. 

Half of the Illinois losses (4 of 8) have come in OT all vs solid NCAA teams Michigan St, UCLA, and Wisconsin (twice).  They fit the KenPom criteria (explained above) ranking 2nd in the nation in offensive efficiency and 28th defensively. 

They had some injuries during the season with starting PG Boswell and starting forward Stojakovic missing some games.  Both are back and this team is rested and healthy having played only 1 game since March 8th entering this tournament. 

The Illini have some high level numbers in a number of key metrics including 3rd nationally in offensive rebounding, 10th in offensive turnover rate, and they send opponents to the FT line at the lowest rate in the entire country. 

This is the tallest team in the country with two 7 footers and two 6’9 plus players that can all play inside and out.  They also have a top 10 NBA draft pick in Keaton Wagler, who KenPom rates as the 7th best player in the country. 

The downside is they may have to get through both Houston and Florida to get out of this Region but they are definitely capable. We hope you enjoy this March Madness Future bet.

GET 8 MORE FUTURE BETS ON THE TOURNEY FROM ASA WHEN YOU SUBSCRIBE FOR THE FIRST 4 PACKAGE OR THE ENTIRE MARCH MADNESS OFFER! Check out a package here today…

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