Tag: nba mvp winner

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NBA results without Jokic, SGA and Wemby on a roster

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NBA betting forecast – By ASAwins.com

With the NBA season drawing to a close we hear many sports outlets talking about postseason awards and who specifically is going to be MVP. Let me be upfront with this, I am not a Nikola Jokic super-fan, I’m a basketball guy. In my opinion, the NBA in the 80’s and 90’s was the single greatest sport to watch where winning was everything. This ramble or vent is on how little the so called ‘experts’ talk about or support Jokic as the league’s MVP. I’m a realist and a bettor and I know he’s not going to win this season, but the reality is…he’s the most valuable player in the league and it’s not as close as you think. I’ll explain below with a little help from the computers.

Current 2025-26 season records (near the end of the regular season, ~78-79 games played out of 82):

Oklahoma City Thunder: 62-16 (.795)

San Antonio Spurs: 60-19 (.759)

Denver Nuggets: 51-28 (.646)

Key player stats (per game averages and advanced metrics; all data as of the latest available):

Nikola Jokić (DEN)

PPG: 28.0 | RPG: 12.9 | APG: 10.9 | SPG: 1.4 | TOV: 3.8

PER: 32.3 (elite efficiency)

Win Shares (WS): 14.2 (with WS/48 of .315)

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

PPG: 31.4 | RPG: 4.4 | APG: 6.5 | SPG: 1.4 | TOV: 2.2

PER: 31.0

Win Shares (WS): 15.0 (league leader, WS/48 of .328)

Victor Wembanyama (SAS)

PPG: 24.8 | RPG: 11.5 | APG: 3.1 | SPG: 1.0 | TOV: 2.4 | BPG: 3.1

PER: 29.5

Win Shares (WS): 9.6 (WS/48 of .254)

Simulation Method – Win Shares (WS) is the most direct metric here for estimating a player’s win contribution. It is built from box-score stats (points, rebounds, assists, steals, turnovers) plus defensive contributions, efficiency adjustments, pace, and team context. It is normalized so a replacement-level player contributes ~0 WS. PER provides supporting context on individual efficiency but is already embedded in the WS calculation. The simulation is straightforward and standard for these hypotheticals:

Estimated wins without the star ≈ current team wins − player’s WS (rounded to nearest whole win).

Losses increase by the same amount to keep total games played the same. This assumes the star’s minutes are filled by replacement-level talent (0 WS contribution). It is an estimate—real basketball has lineup synergies, chemistry, and schedule effects that WS approximates but does not perfectly capture. Remaining games (~3–4) have minimal impact given how close we are to the end of the season.

Estimated Records Without the Star Player

Denver Nuggets without Nikola Jokić: ~37-42
Current: 51-28. Subtract Jokić’s 14.2 WS → ~37 wins (losses rise accordingly).
Jokić’s triple-double-level production, historic efficiency (PER 32.3), and massive WS make him the clear engine. Without him the Nuggets would still be a solid playoff-level team thanks to depth, but they drop from a top-3 West seed to a borderline play-in squad.

Oklahoma City Thunder without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: ~47-31
Current: 62-16. Subtract SGA’s 15.0 WS → ~47 wins.
SGA is the league’s WS leader and an MVP-caliber two-way force. The Thunder have excellent supporting pieces and depth, so they would remain a strong playoff team (likely still a top-4 seed in the West), but they lose their offensive engine and defensive versatility, dropping from historic pace to “very good but not elite.”

San Antonio Spurs without Victor Wembanyama: ~50-29
Current: 60-19. Subtract Wemby’s 9.6 WS → ~50 wins.
Wembanyama’s elite two-way impact (PER 29.5, massive blocks, rebounding, and growing playmaking) is huge, but the Spurs have built real supporting talent around him. Without him they would still contend for a high playoff seed, but they lose the defensive anchor and unique spacing/rim protection that makes their system special.

Bottom line: All three teams would remain competitive without their superstar (thanks to depth and coaching), but each would drop noticeably—most dramatically the Nuggets (Jokić’s WS impact is enormous relative to the team’s margin). These are data-driven estimates grounded in the exact metrics.

There is a good chance Jokic will never win another MVP even if he continues to put up these historical statistics. SGA is going to win again this year, then it will be Wemby for the forseeable future who will probably win multiple years in a row, until the voters get “Wemby-fatigue” and move on from him.

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NBA MVP odds | Longshot Nikola Jokic – Denver Nuggets

Jokic MVP odds

Why Nikola Jokić at +6000 for NBA MVP Is the Sharpest Bet on the Board

As the 2025-26 regular season winds down, the MVP race has a clear favorite in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and serious buzz around Victor Wembanyama. But Nikola Jokić sits at +6000 on most sportsbooks—third in the odds but treated like an afterthought by voters. That number feels like a gift for bettors who actually look at the numbers instead of the narrative.

Let’s run the tape. Jokić is putting up 27.9 points per game (7th in the NBA), but he’s miles ahead of the flashier counting stats that voters love. He leads the league in rebounding at 12.9 RPG—Wembanyama is a distant 5th at 11.4. He’s also No. 1 in assists at 10.8 APG; Shai is back in 18th at 6.5. Both Jokić and Wemby have played 60-61 games. Shai has suited up for 64, yet the Serbian big man still posts the second-best PER in basketball (32.5-32.6 range), trailing only Giannis Antetokounmpo—who’s played just 34-36 games and is effectively out of the conversation.

Jokić is the only player in the top tier doing everything at an elite level. He’s not just scoring—he’s orchestrating the Nuggets’ offense like a point guard in a 7-footer’s body while dominating the glass. Efficiency? Off the charts. Wins above replacement and advanced metrics back it up. Yet the betting market and media have him as a distant long shot behind SGA (31.6 PPG on a presumed top seed) and Wemby (the shiny new superstar on a Spurs team rolling at a .760 clip).

So why the disrespect? Voter fatigue is real. Jokić already has three MVPs. NBA awards historically punish repeat winners once the “new shiny toy” narrative kicks in—see the love for Wemby’s two-way explosion or SGA’s scoring explosion on what looks like the league’s best team. Denver sits at 48-28 with 6 games to play, solid but not the juggernaut OKC or San Antonio have been. Narrative > stats in MVP voting, and the story right now is “SGA carries the No. 1 seed” or “Wemby is the future.” That’s exactly why +6000 is screaming value. Jokić has been the best all-around player in the league again. He leads the NBA in rebounding and assists while posting top-10 scoring on elite efficiency. His PER sits second only to a guy who barely played half a season. If the Nuggets close strong and Jokić keeps triple-double hunting, the advanced-stat crowd (and any voter who actually watches film) will remember who’s been the most valuable night in and night out. At +6000, you’re getting 60-1 implied odds on a player who’s been the best in the league by most objective measures. That’s not a long shot—that’s a mispriced gift. If you’re betting MVP futures, the Joker at plus money this big is the play. The numbers don’t lie. The market just isn’t listening.

We won’t make a large wager on this but will make a small investment instead. It’s not about stats or who is the best player, it’s political and biased and decided by uninformed, biased sports writers.

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