Author: Lee Kostroski

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ASA NBA free bet | Warriors vs Timberwolves | Jan 24 2026

ASA NBA free bet on Minnesota Timberwolves -6 vs Golden State Warriors, 5:30pm ET

The Warriors season took a significant hit when they lost Jimmy Butler for the season to a knee injury. Contrary to what you might think, the immediate impact of his loss has come on the defensive end of the court as they’ve given up 145 and 123 points in their last two games. Those numbers came against two teams that rank in the bottom of the league in offensive net ratings (Dallas, Toronto). Minnesota is mired in their own losing streak that currently stands at 4 games, but in their defense three of those came against a red hot Bulls team, the Spurs and the Rockets. The Wolves are the 6th most efficient offense in the NBA at 1.184-points per possession and rank 10th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.136PPP. In fact, the Wolves are one of only three teams in the NBA to rank top 10 in both oEFF and dEFF. Not only will we see a continued decline in the Warriors defensive statistics, but they’ll suffer offensively too without Butlers 20ppg and 5.6rpg. Minnesota clearly gets up for games against the Warriors as they’ve now won 5 straight in the series and all of those W’s have come by 5 or more points. Lay it here with Minnesota.

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NBA free bet | Clippers at Raptors | Jan 16 2025

ASAwins NBA free bet on OVER 212.5 LA Clippers at Toronto Raptors, 7:40pm ET

This is a very low total based on NBA averages and numbers this season. NBA games are averaging 232.1 points per game this season and typically finish the season around 227’ish. So Vegas is suggesting this game is going to be that far below the number? We expect this game to get into the 220’s. The Clippers have found a groove with 4 straight wins and an 10-2 record in their last 12 games. The defense of the Clippers in recent weeks has been much improved but it’s the offense that has really played well. L.A. has an offensive net rating of 120.4 over their last 10 games which is the 4th highest number in the league. They also rank 5th in eFG% over that same time period. Toronto has some ‘meh’ statistics and rank near the middle of the league in FG% (47.1%) and field goal attempts but is solid on the O-boards and 12th in 2nd chance points. They are scoring just under 114ppg on the season. As we mentioned earlier, the Clippers have some great defensive stats in recent weeks but on the season this team ranks 25th in defensive efficiency allowing 1.186-points per possession. The Clippers are also 16th in FG% allowed and 21st in 3PT% allowed. We don’t need this game to be any kind of shootout, we just need it to be better than average. Easy OVER call.

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NBA free bet | Pelicans vs Bulls | Dec 31st 2025

ASA NBA free bet on Chicago Bulls -1.5 vs. New Orleans Pelicans, 7PM ET

There is something very strange about this game/line as the Pelicans are getting a ton of support from the public, yet the line moved from them being favored to the Bulls now laying -1.5-points. This will be the first time this season the Pelicans ‘were’ a road favorite and we’re not so sure they are better than the injury depleted Bulls. Chicago will be without Giddy and White but expect Tre Jones and Ayo Dosunmu to step up in their absence. The Pelicans have their own concerns with depth as Herb Jones and Alvarado are both out of the line up tonight. The Pelicans have an efficiency differential of minus -7.2 on the season, the Bulls are better overall at -4.1. New Orleans is just 2-11 SU on the road this season whereas the Bulls are a respectable 8-8 SU at home. The Bulls have lost to the Pelicans twice this season which should mean we get a focused effort out of the Chicago roster tonight. Play on the Bulls.

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Bowl Bet | Virginia vs Missouri | 12-27-25

#237/238 ASA FREE BOWL BET: ON Under 44.5 Points – Virginia vs Missouri, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET @ Jacksonville, FL

Two high level defensive teams facing off in Jacksonville on Saturday night should lead to a low scoring game.  Missouri’s defense ranked in the top 17 nationally in total D, YPP allowed, rushing D, and passing D while allowing just 19 PPG.  They held 4 of their final 6 opponents to 17 points or less and allowed 20+ points in just 4 of their 12 games.  On offense, the Tigers will be without starting QB Pribula who is on the transfer portal, making freshman Zollers the starter for this game.  Zollers started 3 games this season and Mizzou was held to 17 or less in 2 of those games.  The one game they topped 17 was vs Mississippi State whose defense ranked outside the top 100.  The Tigers run the ball at one of the highest rates in CFB (44 carries per game which is 11th nationally) and they weren’t comfortable throwing much with Zollers under center as he averaged only 20 pass attempts per game in his 3 starts.  They will also be very thin in WR due to injuries and opt outs so expect this offense to stick to the ground game which eats clock.  The Tigers will struggle to find success on the ground facing an underrated UVA defense that allowed only 110 YPG rushing this year on 3.3 YPC (both top 25 numbers).  The Cav defense allowed only 20 PPG this season and held 5 of their final 6 opponents to 21 points or less.  Virginia is a bit more balanced on offense but they do run the ball a lot as well (39th in rush attempts per game).  The Missouri defense is stout vs the run (103 YPG allowed) but they also have been fantastic vs the pass ranking 11th in YPG passing allowed, 15th in opponent completion percentage, and 16th in yards per pass attempt allowed.  We like this one to stay Under the total.  

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NFL Free Bet | Vikings vs Giants | Dec 21 2025

Point Train Free NFL Bet @NY Giants +2.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT – Dec 21 2025

  • This has been an automatic bet for us the last few weeks and the results have been solid (Ravens last week).
  • We have been tracking a few different betting markets at a public sportsbook and a sharp book and when the numbers don’t align – the results have been quite good.
  • The biggest betting indicator using this strategy is on the Giants this week plus the points at home against the Vikings.
  • Should the Vikings really be a road favorite here?
  • New York actually played better than the final score a week ago in their loss to the Commanders. NYG 384 total yards at 6.9YPPL – held Washington to 340 total yards 6.0YPPL.
  • Minnesota is off a win in Dallas but were outgained by nearly 100 total yards.
  • Yes, the G-men lost last week at home but take a look at their other home losses – Packers, Niners and Chiefs. They have beaten the Chargers and Eagles on this field this season.
  • It’s ugly for a reason – bet the Giants!

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