Author: Lee Kostroski

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Minnesota Vikings Under 9.5 wins | 2025-26 | Futures Bet

Minnesota Vikings Wins

ASAwins NFL projections UNDER 9.5 WINS (-125) Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings’ 2024 season (14-3) was an outlier, driven by luck in close games (8-1 SU in one-score games) and Sam Darnold’s career-best performance. The Minnesota Vikings’ win total for the 2025-26 NFL season is set at 9.5, with the under at -125 odds (54.5% implied probability).

This bet assumes the Vikings will win 9 or fewer games, a reasonable prediction given key factors. After a 14-3 record in 2024, which exceeded expected wins by 2.5 games, historical trends suggest regression (average drop of 5.33 wins for similar teams).

The Vikings face the NFL’s 5th-hardest schedule, with 11 games against 2024 winning teams, including five with 12+ wins, and international games in Dublin and London.

Rookie QB J.J. McCarthy, who hasn’t taken a regular season snap under center, missed the entire 2024 season due to injury. Granted, has a strong supporting cast (Justin Jefferson, Aaron Jones, T.J. Hockenson) and an elite defense (2nd in DVOA), but can he fill Darnold’s shoes? McCarthy will have a tough time duplicating Darnold’s statistics from last season as he finished 5th in total passing yards, had a 66.2% completion percentage with 35 TD’s to 12 INT’s and a QBR of 102.5.

Minnesota was 19th in rushing yards per game a season ago so it’s not like they can lean on Aaron Jones and the running game if McCarthy struggles.

While Kevin O’Connell’s coaching and QB development is some of the best in the NFL, the tough schedule and potential growing pains for McCarthy make the under 9.5 wins an attractive wager at -125. We are projecting a 9-win season at most for the Vikings.

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WNBA Free Bet | Sky vs Mystics | July 8 2025

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics -6 vs Chicago Sky, 11:30am ET

This is a very early tipoff at 11:30am ET so be sure to get your action in ASAP. The Sky were in a perfect scheduling situation the other day when they covered against Minnesota in a loss 75-80. Those results have impacted this line which gives us value with Washington.

The Mystics were recently favored by -4-points in Chicago and are now laying a number slightly higher than that at home. Washington won that most recent clash 79-72.

The Mystics were playing well with a 5-2 run before losing two straight to Dallas and then Minnesota, both on the road. Prior to that though they had impressive wins over Las Vegas and Minnesota.

Chicago has the 2nd worst overall Net rating in the league at -10.9. They are awful offensively and defensively, ranking 11th and 12th respectively in those two categories.

Washington isn’t a whole lot better offensively, but they are OK defensively, ranking 8th in DNR.

Chicago has 5 wins on the season and they’ve come against the Sun, Sparks and Wings, the bottom three teams in the league along with the Sky.

We like the Mystic to bounce back after their two most recent losses and notch a big home win over the Sky early on Tuesday.

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CFL Free Bet | Toronto vs Ottawa | June 29 2025

ASA free CFL bet: Toronto Argonauts +1.5 vs. Ottawa Redblacks, 7pm ET

The Toronto Argonauts (0-3) are poised to upset the Ottawa Redblack (1-2) outright in their Week 4 CFL matchup on June 29, 2025, at TD Place Stadium.

Toronto is a desperate team at 0-3 and should be highly motivated after losing late last week on a 99-TD on a kickoff return. Toronto’s historically has dominated Ottawa—winning 7 of their last 8 meetings going back to 2022. The Argo’s have won 4 of the last five meetings in this stadium.

The Argonauts’ offense, led by QB Nick Arbuckle, averages just 20.3 points per game, but should bust-out facing a Redblacks D that allows 390YPG, 2nd most in the league.

Ottawa’s league-leading penalty count (25 for 231 yards through three games) will disrupt their rhythm, while Toronto’s defense, anchored by LB Wynton McManis, could capitalize on QB Dustin Crum’s inexperience in his second start since 2023.

The Argo’s defensive numbers aren’t great but they have faced 2 of the league’s top three offenses this season. We like Toronto to get their first win of the season as our CFL free bet today.

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CFL Free Bet | Toronto vs Saskatchewan | June 20 2025

ASA CFL play on Toronto Argonauts +3.5 vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders, 7:30pm ET

Toronto boasts a strong home record, winning 16 of their last 18 regular-season home games. Their championship experience and desperation after an 0-2 start should propel them to a win here. Despite their early struggles, the Argos’ 2024 stats—averaging 26.2 points and 367.8 yards offensively while allowing 22.4 points and 353.2 yards defensively—suggest they have the firepower to compete with Saskatchewan’s 2024 numbers of 24.8 points and 354.5 yards offensively, and 21.6 points and 339.8 yards defensively. The Roughriders’ 2-0 start in 2025 has been buoyed by luck in the turnover department, forcing five turnovers in two games. However, regression is likely, as their defense has allowed 6.3 yards per play, a vulnerability that could be exploited by Toronto’s offense and quarterback Dustin Crum and Ka’Deem Carey. Saskatchewan’s offensive efficiency (6.2 yards per play) is solid, but facing a Toronto defense that held opponents to 6.0 yards per play last year, the game could tighten up. Expect the Argos to leverage home-field advantage and cover the +3.5 spread in a close contest.

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NFL Bets | Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Bet | June 18 2025

Steelers Aaron Rodgers

NFL Futures Betting Prediction: Why the Pittsburgh Steelers Will Finish UNDER 8.5 Wins in 2025

By ASAwins

As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team generating plenty of buzz, particularly with the high-profile signing of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, despite their consistent success under head coach Mike Tomlin, there are compelling reasons to believe the Steelers will fall short of their 8.5-win total in the 2025 season. This article dives into the data, schedule challenges, and key roster changes to support a futures betting prediction of UNDER 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh.

A Closer Look at Last Season’s Performance

The Steelers posted a 10-7 record in the 2024 season, a testament to Mike Tomlin’s (has never had an under .500 season….gulp) ability to squeeze wins out of a roster with clear limitations. However, a deeper look reveals that their success was somewhat inflated. Five of their 10 victories came against teams with losing records: the 3-win Cleveland Browns, 3-win New York Giants, 4-win Las Vegas Raiders, and 5-win New York Jets. These wins accounted for half of their total on the season. Against stronger teams, the Steelers were less consistent, which raises concerns heading into a much tougher 2025 schedule.

Advanced metrics further highlight the Steelers’ middling performance. According to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings, Pittsburgh finished the 2024 season ranked 15th overall, with a 19th-ranked offense and an 8th-ranked defense. While their defense was a strength, their offense struggled to find consistency, a recurring issue that may not be fully resolved with their new quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers: An Upgrade or a Risk?

The biggest offseason move for Pittsburgh was signing four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to a one-year deal after his release from the New York Jets. On paper, Rodgers brings an elite pedigree, having thrown for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2024. However, his performance was far from vintage, ranking 25th in QBR (48.0) and posting a completion percentage over expectation of -5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. These numbers reflect a quarterback still recovering from a torn Achilles that sidelined him for nearly all of 2023, raising questions about his ability to return to MVP form at age 41.

Is Rodgers an upgrade over 2024 starters Russell Wilson and Justin Fields? It’s a mixed bag. Wilson and Fields struggled to elevate Pittsburgh’s offense, which ranked 19th in DVOA, but Rodgers’ 2024 performance suggests he may not be a significant improvement. His reluctance to adapt to play-action-heavy schemes, a staple of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system, could create friction. Additionally, Rodgers’ chemistry with new top receiver D.K. Metcalf is uncertain, as Metcalf’s less precise route-running may clash with Rodgers’ demand for perfection.

While Rodgers offers some upside, his age, injury history, and recent performance make him a risky bet to transform Pittsburgh’s offense into a top-tier unit. The Steelers’ offensive line, which struggled in 2024, also poses a concern for Rodgers’ health and effectiveness. If he can’t stay upright, Pittsburgh’s ceiling is limited.

A Brutal 2025 Schedule

The Steelers face a significantly tougher slate in 2025, which is a major factor in this UNDER prediction. Their opponents include the NFC North and AFC East, two divisions loaded with top tier teams. Based on 2024 DVOA ratings, Pittsburgh projects to face the fifth-hardest set of opposing offenses, a stark contrast to the 10th-hardest schedule they faced last season.

From Week 7 to Week 11 alone, the Steelers play four games against teams that ranked 12th or better in offensive DVOA in 2024, including two matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, who boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks. The back half of their schedule includes daunting games against Baltimore (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, and Green Bay—all teams with top-tier offenses in 2024. This brutal stretch could expose Pittsburgh’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly if their offense struggles to keep pace.

Pittsburgh’s early schedule is more favorable, with their first five games against teams ranked 15th or worse in offensive DVOA last season. However, even if they start strong—say, 3-2 or 4-1—the gauntlet from Week 7 onward makes it difficult to maintain momentum.

Defensive Concerns and Turnover Dependency

Pittsburgh’s defense was a bright spot in 2024, ranking 8th in DVOA and excelling at forcing turnovers (27 takeaways, tied for 8th in the NFL). However, their success was heavily reliant on opportunistic play. When excluding turnovers, the Steelers ranked 18th in defensive EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate, revealing a unit that struggled to consistently stall drives without takeaways.

Facing a tougher set of offenses in 2025, Pittsburgh’s defense may not generate turnovers at the same rate, especially against disciplined teams like Buffalo and Green Bay. The loss of key players like left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and the trade of George Pickens for D.K. Metcalf and Robert Woods don’t inspire confidence in significant offensive improvement, which could leave the defense on the field for longer stretches.

Final Prediction

The Steelers are likely to hover around .500, finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Their early schedule provides opportunities to bank wins, but the brutal second half, combined with offensive uncertainties and a turnover-dependent defense, makes surpassing 8.5 wins unlikely. Data and scheduling suggest Pittsburgh will struggle to replicate last season’s success.

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