Tag: NFL betting

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NFL Free play | Dolphins vs Falcons | Oct 26 2025

#268 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -7 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday a 1 PM ET

We like the Falcons to bounce back after a poor showing last Sunday @ San Francisco.  Atlanta opened as a dog last week vs the Niners and flipped to a small favorite but didn’t show up to play losing 20-10.  The yardage was dead even at 4.9 YPP (season low for the Falcons) and Atlanta was shut out on downs in their final 2 drives.  Prior to that loss, the Falcons had topped Washington by 7 and Buffalo by 10 (2 playoff caliber teams), both at home.  Miami is in a freefall.  They are now 1-6 SU on the season after getting rolled 31-6 @ Cleveland last week.  It was the first time in 11 games the Browns topped 17 points.  This will be the Browns 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they are 0-4 SU on the road (3 of those losses coming by double digits).  The Fins have internal issues and head coach McDaniel is on the hot seat to say the least.  Seems like this team is very close to imploding and if they get down in this game, it might be lights out.  Atlanta is one of 2 teams that ranks in the top 7 in total offense and total defense (other is KC).  Miami ranks 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  This is a terrible match up for the Dolphins defense as they rank dead last defending the run allowing 160 YPG on the ground and they are facing an Atlanta offense that averages 137 YPG rushing (4th in the NFL). No Penix Jr, No problem with vet Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta RB Robinson (6th in the NFL in rushing yards) had a poor outing vs SF (2.9 YPC) but he should have a field day vs this defense.  Miami’s offense will be without one of the key weapons, TE Waller, and they’re already missing Tyreek Hill.  Now facing the #2 defense (Atlanta allows just 265 YPG) we expect a struggle.  Atlanta wins this home tilt by more than a TD. 

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NFL Free Bet today | Titans vs Texans Prediction | Sept 28 2025

#263 ASA NFL FREE today on: Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Really tough ask for Houston to win this rivalry game by more than a TD when they simply struggle to score points. 

The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging 12.7 PPG putting up 9, 10 and 19 points in their 3 games this season.  The Texans are 0-3 ATS losing by an average of 4 PPG to the number. 

Tennessee hasn’t been great offensively but they have scored at least 19 points in 2 of their 3 games and that should get it done here.  In those 2 games the Titans faced the LA Rams and Indianapolis, 2 of the  top 5 offenses in the NFL, and couldn’t keep up despite scoring 19 and 20 points. 

That shouldn’t be a case here facing a Houston team that is averaging just 267 YPG (29th), ranks dead last in 3rd down conversion rate at 24% and scores only 1 point for every 21 yards gained (31st). 

This AFC South rivalry has been closely contested with 9 of the last 10 decided by single digits and the dog has covered 7 of the last 9. 

If we can get 2 TD’s from Tennessee, that just might be enough to get this cover in what is expected to be a low scoring game (lowest total on the board at 39)  Take the points with the Titans as ASA’s NFL free bet today.   

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Sept 7th 2025 | 3 Bets

ASAwins has 3 NFL player prop bets for you today, Sunday September 7th 2025. We have sifted through all the NFL games and have come up with our three best bets for today. Enjoy the games Sunday.

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku – Anytime TD scorer +250

Passing Touchdowns Allowed: The Bengals allowed 29 opponent passing touchdowns during the regular season, ranking them 30th out of 32 NFL teams in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.8 per game). Receptions Allowed to Tight Ends: The Bengals allowed 111 receptions to tight ends over the season, averaging 6.53 receptions per game. This placed them 31st in the NFL.  The Bengals defense surrendered the second-most TE touchdowns last season. Cincinnati’s offense, sharper after preseason reps, will likely push Cleveland to keep passing all game. Njoku could cash in on an anytime TD early or late.

Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner Over 15.5 Carries -130

James Conner is set to clear 15.5 carries against the Saints in Week 1. In 2024, he averaged 14.8 carries per game (236 carries over 16 games), hitting 16+ in 7 games. Conner, who thrives on volume and ranks second among RBs in rushing avoided tackles per game (4.5) and yards after contact per attempt (3.6) over the last two seasons. The Saints’ run defense ranked 28th last year, allowing 118.5 rushing yards per game and were 25th in opponents rushing attempts per game (28.8). With a competitive game script and Conner’s workhorse role, he should see enough volume to hit the over

New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson Under 4.5 Receptions -135

The New York Jets, with Justin Fields as their quarterback, are expected to lean heavily on a run-first offensive approach. Fields, known for his inconsistent passing accuracy (career 60.3% completion rate and 38.7% on-target throw percentage in 2024), struggled to connect with receivers, especially under pressure. This limits Wilson’s target volume (9 per game in 2024), as Fields often opts for scrambles or checkdowns to running backs like Breece Hall. Wilson averaged 5.9 receptions per game in 2024, but reaching today’s O/U is going to be difficult.

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NFL Player Prop picks | Chargers vs Chiefs | Sept 5 2025

ASA Breaks down NFL Player Prop bets on the AFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs game, Friday September 5t. Hook these three into 2-team player prop parlays on your fantasy betting sites. Watch for more winning NFL player prop bets weekly.

LA CHARGERS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – PLAYER PROP BETS

1. Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) – OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards
Pacheco, Kansas City’s dynamic RB, is a solid bet to exceed 9.5 receiving yards. In 2024, he averaged 15.2 receiving yards per game, catching 37 passes for 259 yards across 17 games. With Rashee Rice suspended for six games, the Chiefs will lean on Pacheco’s versatility in the passing game, especially on check-downs and screens. Patrick Mahomes targeted RBs on 18% of his throws last season, and Pacheco’s 7.0 yards per catch make this a low bar to clear. Bet: OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-110).

2. Justin Herbert (Chargers) – UNDER 21.5 Passing Completions
Herbert’s arm is elite, but the Chargers’ run-heavy scheme under Jim Harbaugh and a thin WR corps make the UNDER 21.5 completions appealing. In 2024, Herbert averaged 20.8 completions per game (354 completions over 17 games) on 34.1 attempts, with a 60.8% completion rate. The loss of key defensive personnel could lead to game scripts favoring the run, and rookie RB Omarion Hampton’s addition supports a ground-focused approach. Bet: UNDER 21.5 completions (-105).

3. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Mahomes is a wizard, but the OVER 0.5 interceptions is a sneaky play. In 2024, he threw 11 interceptions across 17 games (0.65 per game), with a tougher 2025 schedule (Eagles, Bills) likely forcing riskier throws. Without Rashee Rice early, Mahomes may press, targeting less reliable options like Xavier Worthy. His 2.1% interception rate last season supports this prop, especially against aggressive defenses. Bet: OVER 0.5 interceptions (+120).

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Will the Dogs be barking?

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Underdogs Continue to Dominate

By ASAwins

As the NFL season kicks off, bettors are diving into Week 1 with a wealth of historical data pointing to one clear trend: underdogs have been a goldmine in the opening week. Since 2016, underdogs in Week 1 have posted an impressive 78-62 record against the spread (ATS), translating to a 56% success rate and an 8% return on investment (ROI). This trend highlights the value of betting on teams overlooked by oddsmakers early in the season, when uncertainty about team performance is at its peak.

Road Dogs Pave the Way
Drilling down further, road underdogs have been even more profitable. Since 2016, Week 1 road dogs have gone 52-36 ATS, a 59% clip that delivers a robust 14% ROI. Teams playing away from home, often underestimated due to the perceived disadvantage, have consistently outperformed expectations in the season opener. Bettors looking for an edge might find road underdogs to be a key piece of their Week 1 strategy.

Teams That Missed the Playoffs Bounce Back
Another angle to consider is teams that missed the postseason in the previous year. These underdogs have a strong track record in Week 1, going 59-45 ATS (57%) since 2016, with a 10% ROI. Teams coming off a disappointing season often enter the new campaign with a chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous bets against the spread in the opening week.

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Divisional Dogs: A Hidden Gem
Divisional underdogs in Week 1 are a particularly hot commodity. Since 2016, these teams have gone 31-16 ATS, an eye-popping 66% success rate that yields a 26% ROI. Familiarity within divisions can level the playing field, and oddsmakers may overvalue favorites in these matchups, creating opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on underdogs.

Big Dogs Bark Loudest
For those willing to take on more risk, big underdogs—those getting 6.5 or more points—have been a revelation. Since 2016, these teams have posted a 25-12 ATS record in Week 1, a 68% success rate with a massive 31% ROI. These high-upside bets can pay off handsomely when oddsmakers overestimate the gap between teams early in the season.

Division Home Underdogs Hold Strong
While road dogs shine, don’t sleep on divisional home underdogs. Since 2010, Week 1 home underdogs playing within their division have gone 23-7 ATS, a remarkable 76.7% success rate. Playing in front of their own fans, these teams often defy expectations, making them a reliable option for bettors looking to back the underdog at home.

Conclusion
Week 1 of the NFL season is a bettor’s paradise, with underdogs consistently delivering value across multiple categories. Whether it’s road dogs, divisional underdogs, teams coming off a non-playoff season, or big dogs getting 6.5+ points, the data since 2016 points to a clear strategy: don’t be afraid to back the underdog. Add in the strong performance of home underdogs since 2010, and bettors have a wealth of angles to explore. As you finalize your Week 1 bets, keep these trends in mind—history shows the underdog often has its day in the NFL’s opening week.

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