Tag: NFL betting

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NFL Free Bet today | Patriots vs Jets prediction | Sept 19 2024

POINT TRAIN NFL free bet today – Patriots vs Jets – Thursday Night Football

New England Patriots TEAM TOTAL UNDER 16.5 POINTS

RATING – Beer & Pizza

  • I can’t get involved with a team or side here as the jury is still out on Rodgers/Jets offense and the Patriots have key injuries on their offensive line.
  • I will sprinkle a few shillings on the UNDER in the Patriots team total.
  • New England has taken a very conservative approach offensively with the 8th fewest pass attempts per game. They run it at a very high rate and QB Brissett has just 270-total passing yards in two games.
  • The Pats will commit to the run early and often and if their defense can contain the Jets offense early on, they’ll be content to play field position and hope to win late.
  • New England has scored 3, 15 and 10-points in the last three meetings with New York.
  • I don’t see the Patriots scoring more than 2 touchdowns in this one.

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Ravens vs Chiefs Preview | Sept 5th 2024 | By ASA

ASA breaks down the Ravens vs Chiefs game Thursday, Sept 5th 2024

Game Preview: Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date: Thursday, September 4, 2024

Kickoff: 8:20 PM EDT

Location: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO

Broadcast: NBC, Peacock, Universo

BetMGM NFL Odds: Chiefs by 3

Series Record: Chiefs lead 8-5

Last Meeting: Chiefs won 17-10 in the AFC Championship game on January 28, 2024, in Baltimore.

The Matchup:

The NFL season kicks off with a blockbuster game as the Baltimore Ravens visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship game. This contest not only opens the season but also reignites a rivalry that has seen the Chiefs dominate recent encounters, winning five of the last six games against the Ravens.

Chiefs’ Perspective:

  • Patrick Mahomes, the reigning Super Bowl MVP, will be looking to start the season with a bang. His ability to extend plays and find open receivers, especially Travis Kelce, who’s on the cusp of breaking franchise records, could be crucial.
  • The Chiefs’ defense, while missing key players like L’Jarius Sneed and Charles Omenihu, will face a stern test against the Ravens’ multifaceted offense. However, with Chris Jones and George Karlaftis III leading the pass rush, they aim to disrupt Lamar Jackson.

Ravens’ Perspective:

  • Lamar Jackson, a two-time MVP, will be keen to prove his worth against Mahomes in what’s being billed as a historic matchup of multiple MVP winners in Week 1. His dual-threat capabilities, combined with the addition of RB Derrick Henry, could make the Ravens’ offense unpredictable.
  • Defensively, the Ravens led the league in sacks last season with 3.3 per game. With Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton anchoring the defense, they’ll look to contain Mahomes and limit the Chiefs’ explosive plays.

Key Matchups:

  • Lamar Jackson vs. Chiefs’ Defense: Can Jackson’s mobility and arm evade the Chiefs’ pass rush and find his receivers?
  • Patrick Mahomes vs. Ravens’ Defense: Will Mahomes’ magic find a way through one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses?
  • Ravens’ Run Game vs. Chiefs’ Run Defense: The Ravens’ ground attack against a Chiefs defense that struggled against the run last season.

Key Injuries and Absences:

  • Chiefs: WR Marquise Brown, RB Clyde-Edwards-Helaire, DE BJ Thompson, DE Charles Omenihu,
  • Ravens: LB Adisa Isaac, RB Rasheen Ali

What to Watch For:

  • **Can the Ravens’ defense replicate their AFC Championship performance and keep Mahomes in check?
  • **Will the Chiefs’ offensive line hold up against the Ravens’ formidable pass rush?
  • **The battle of the tight ends: Mark Andrews vs. Travis Kelce, both looking to make significant impacts.

This game isn’t just about bragging rights for the next season; it’s a statement game for both teams. The Ravens, with a chip on their shoulder after the AFC Championship loss, will look to prove they’re the team to beat in the AFC. Conversely, the Chiefs, under Andy Reid, aim to show that their championship window remains wide open. Expect a high-intensity, high-stakes game that could set the tone for both teams’ seasons.

This preview encapsulates the key elements of the game based on the information provided, focusing on player matchups, team dynamics, and the significance of the game in the context of the season opener.

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NFL MVP Odds | A QB longshot | 9-3-24 | By ASA

NFL MVP Odds – QB Jared Goff Detroit Lions +$2500 – By ASA

Jared Goff’s odds for winning the NFL MVP in 2024 have been a topic of interest among sports analysts and bettors, reflecting a mix of skepticism and optimism based on his performance trajectory and the Lions’ team success. At a higher price point we like Goff as a potential longshot to win the MVP in 2024.

Have you looked at the Lions schedule this season? Detroit and QB Goff will play in a controlled environment or Dome in 14 of their seventeen games this season. Goff and the Lions were 9-3 SU when playing in a Dome last season. Goff threw for over 4,400 yards in 2022 with 29 TD’s to 7 INT’s in leading Detroit to a 9-8 record. Last season, Goff threw for 4,575 yards (2nd most in league) with a 30/12 TD/INT ration in helping the Lions for a 14-6 record and a loss in the NFC Championship game.

Goff’s career statistics in domes show a higher completion percentage, better passer rating, and a more favorable touchdown to interception ratio. When playing indoors, Goff has a 67.4% completion rate, with 92 touchdowns and 32 interceptions over 55 games.

Conversely, his outdoor games statistics are less impressive, with a completion percentage around 62.2%, 101 touchdowns, and 52 interceptions across 71 games.

Goff’s MVP odds have been listed at various points between +2200 and +2500, indicating he’s seen as a dark horse candidate but with significant value for bettors if he performs exceptionally.

Goff has shown improvement and consistency, leading the Lions to two straight winning seasons. His stats from previous seasons, like throwing for over 4,400 yards with a high completion percentage and a favorable touchdown to interception ratio, underline his capability at the helm of an offense. The Lions’ success, particularly if they secure a high seed in the playoffs, could significantly boost Goff’s MVP case, given the award’s tendency to favor quarterbacks from top-seeded teams.

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NFC East Prediction | Eagles Under 10.5 Wins | By ASA

ASA’s NFC EAST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Philadelphia Eagles – UNDER 10.5 Wins (+110)

The Eagles fell off a cliff at the end of last season losing 5 of their last 6 regular season games before getting blasted 32-9 in the Playoffs by the Tampa Bay Bucs.  That just might be a signal of things to come this season. 

When sifting through their schedule last year you’ll also notice that a number of the Eagles wins could have gone either way.  In fact, 8 of their 11 wins came by 8 points or fewer and historically those numbers are tough to repeat the following season.  Since 2001 there have been 23 teams that finished the regular season with 8 or more wins by one score or less and in the following season 19 of those teams finished with a worse record. 

Philly lost both their offensive and defensive coordinators for the 2nd straight season which is never a good thing for continuity. 

Despite their 11-6 record last year, Philly was just +5 on the season in point differential and they were outgained in total yardage which made their expected win total just 8.5. 

QB Hurts numbers fell off big time last season as he threw 15 interceptions, after throwing 18 his first 3 seasons combined, and his QBR went from top 5 in 2022 to middle of the pack in 2023. 

The defense has a lot of work to do as well after finishing in the bottom 8 in YPG, YPP, and PPG allowed last season.  Historically, the last 8 times Philadelphia’s win total has been posted at 10 or higher, they’ve gone Under 7 times.  This team should be solid, but they are not an 11 win team in our opinion.    

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NFL predictions | 1/28/24 | Player Props and Free bet

ASA player props and free bet January 28th

BALTIMORE RAVENS – LAMAR JACKSON OVER 10.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Jackson’s rushing total would be an easy write up but last week his rushing total was 55.5. This is easily the highest rushing total he’s had in the last ten games…so no value whatsoever.  We like Over his attempts of 10.5 instead. Jackson has averaged 9.35 rushing attempts per game and ran it 11 times last week against a good Texans rush defense. Jackson has rushed it 11 or more times in 4 of the last six games he’s played in. Last week Buffalo Bills QB Allen ran it 12 times against this Chiefs defense. With Kansas City in man coverage defensively that gives Jackson more opportunities to run with the DB’s backs to the line of scrimmage.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – BROCK PURDY OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS

Purdy has been under 60% completion rate 3 times this season. Once last week in rainy conditions vs. Green Bay and once each vs. Cleveland and Baltimore who both rank top 5 in opposing QB’s complete percentage. Purdy now faces a Lions defense that is 30th in passing yards per attempt and 31st in yards per completion.

The Lions Pass defense in the last 5 games has been atrocious. Here is what the last 5 oppossing QB’s have done to them. .

N Mullens 411 (261)

D Prescott 345 (ssn ave 265)

N Mullens 396 (261)

M Stafford 367 (ssn ave 264)

B Mayfield 349 *and how many big plays did he miss?* (ssn ave 238)

Purdy averaged 266.5PYPG this season and threw for over 272 8 times this season.

DETROIT LIONS JARED GOFF – OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS

He’s thrown for over this number in 6 straight, and 12 times this season overall. He averages 270.5PYPG. San Francisco is ‘average’ or below in pass defense. They allow 213.4PYPG (14th), allow 23.9 completions per game (30th) and are 21st in completion % against. If the Lions fall behind, they will abandon the running game and throw it on every down. Detroit was 10th in passing attempts per game this season, 2nd in passing yards per game, 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion.

FREE BET DETROIT LIONS OVER TEAM TOTAL 20.5

The Lions averaged 27.2PPG on the season which was 5th most in the league. On the road they put up 24.1PPG. Detroit was 9th in Yards Per Point scored as it took them just 14.4 yards gained for every 1-point scored. The Lions averaged 5.9 yards per play and have an offense capable of explosive plays. They scored 20 or more points in 16 of nineteen games this season.

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