ASA COLLEGE FOOTBALL FREE PLAY ON Mississippi State -28.5 over UL Monroe, Saturday at 7:30 PM ET
ULM is one of the worst programs in CFB with just 7 wins over FBS opponents in their last 3 seasons. They are just 37-81 SU over the last decade. Their spread record during that time is 48-68-2 ATS. Even when the oddsmakers throw up a big spread against this team they don’t cover. The Warhawks are just 1-7 ATS their last 8 times as a dog of 20+ points.
MSU should be able to name their score here. The Dogs will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball vs a ULM offensive line that ranks 125th in returning snaps. In addition, the ULM defensive line only brings back 44 total snaps from last season (dead last in the nation). If you’re seeking a valuable free play, college football insights often point to dominant favorites like MSU.
The Warhawks rank 127th in freshmen + portal additions so they don’t have much talent replacing those lost snaps. Mississippi State should run at will here and should hang a huge number in this game. T
The Dogs have one of the top QB’s in the SEC returning (Davis) who will put extra pressure on ULM’s D. He is very athletic and can put up big games on the ground and through the air. For fans looking for this week’s most promising free play in college football, this matchup stands out.
We rate Monroe’s offense and defense outside the top 125 entering this season. Therefore, we look for huge success on both sides of the ball for MSU.
Last year ULM lost their 2 games vs Power 4 teams 73-0 vs Alabama and 42-7 vs Northwestern (one of the worst teams in the Big 10 LY). In fact, going back 4 years, the Warhawks have faced 7 Power 4 teams. They’ve been outscored in those games 363 to 33 (an average score of 51.8 to 4.7!).
Lastly, while Monroe has struggled cashing as a big underdog, Mississippi State has been a bully vs lower tier competition. They are going 15-3-1 ATS as a favorite of 20 or more (since 2017). Let’s lay it. To conclude, this makes for a compelling college football free play, given the teams’ history.
NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Underdogs Continue to Dominate
By ASAwins
As the NFL season kicks off, bettors are diving into Week 1 with a wealth of historical data pointing to one clear trend: underdogs have been a goldmine in the opening week. Since 2016, underdogs in Week 1 have posted an impressive 78-62 record against the spread (ATS), translating to a 56% success rate and an 8% return on investment (ROI). This trend highlights the value of betting on teams overlooked by oddsmakers early in the season, when uncertainty about team performance is at its peak.
Road Dogs Pave the Way Drilling down further, road underdogs have been even more profitable. Since 2016, Week 1 road dogs have gone 52-36 ATS, a 59% clip that delivers a robust 14% ROI. Teams playing away from home, often underestimated due to the perceived disadvantage, have consistently outperformed expectations in the season opener. Bettors looking for an edge might find road underdogs to be a key piece of their Week 1 strategy.
Teams That Missed the Playoffs Bounce Back Another angle to consider is teams that missed the postseason in the previous year. These underdogs have a strong track record in Week 1, going 59-45 ATS (57%) since 2016, with a 10% ROI. Teams coming off a disappointing season often enter the new campaign with a chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous bets against the spread in the opening week.
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Divisional Dogs: A Hidden Gem Divisional underdogs in Week 1 are a particularly hot commodity. Since 2016, these teams have gone 31-16 ATS, an eye-popping 66% success rate that yields a 26% ROI. Familiarity within divisions can level the playing field, and oddsmakers may overvalue favorites in these matchups, creating opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on underdogs.
Big Dogs Bark Loudest For those willing to take on more risk, big underdogs—those getting 6.5 or more points—have been a revelation. Since 2016, these teams have posted a 25-12 ATS record in Week 1, a 68% success rate with a massive 31% ROI. These high-upside bets can pay off handsomely when oddsmakers overestimate the gap between teams early in the season.
Division Home Underdogs Hold Strong While road dogs shine, don’t sleep on divisional home underdogs. Since 2010, Week 1 home underdogs playing within their division have gone 23-7 ATS, a remarkable 76.7% success rate. Playing in front of their own fans, these teams often defy expectations, making them a reliable option for bettors looking to back the underdog at home.
Conclusion Week 1 of the NFL season is a bettor’s paradise, with underdogs consistently delivering value across multiple categories. Whether it’s road dogs, divisional underdogs, teams coming off a non-playoff season, or big dogs getting 6.5+ points, the data since 2016 points to a clear strategy: don’t be afraid to back the underdog. Add in the strong performance of home underdogs since 2010, and bettors have a wealth of angles to explore. As you finalize your Week 1 bets, keep these trends in mind—history shows the underdog often has its day in the NFL’s opening week.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026: Why ASA Picks OSU as the Big 12 Prediction Oklahoma State CowboysCollege football’s most chaotic conference is back with 16 teams, nine league games each, and plenty of room for a team nobody is talking about in August to wreck November. After a 1-11 collapse in 2025, the Oklahoma State Cowboys… Read more: Oklahoma State Cowboys 2026 Big 12 prediction
Minnesota Lynx Lead as WNBA Championship Odds-On Favorites Heading Into the Playoffs The 2026 WNBA regular season is in its final stretch. If you’re tracking the latest 2026 WNBA Championship Odds, all eight playoff teams are locked in, seeding remains fluid, and the championship futures market has a clear leader. The Minnesota Lynx sit as… Read more: 2026 WNBA Championship Odds:
College Football Home field advantage isn’t all the same. When it comes to college football handicapping, most bettors look at a team’s overall power rating and move on to the point spread. But there’s another question J’s Plays believes you should be asking: Where does that team perform best—at home or on the road? That… Read more: College Football Handicapping: Finding Value with Home & Road Ratings
2026 NFL Preseason Week 2 QB Rotations Preview: Projected Playing Time for Every Game. ASA gives you the edge with a quick look at what the projected QB rotations will be this week in the NFL preseason games. For those curious about all NFL Preseason Week 2 quarterback rotations, this post lays out the key… Read more: 2026 NFL Preseason Week 2 QB Rotations Preview: Projected Playing Time for Every Game
Ouch #Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights were favored by 30ish points tonight at home vs #UMass and they trail the Minutemen 24-7 at half! Massachusetts dominating with 251 total yards at half to just 108 for Rutgers. #CFBThursday
