Tag: NBA player props

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NBA Future Bets – 2023-24 – By ASA

NBA Future Bets – Oct 23rd

If you’re looking for a few NBA Over-Under wagers or Future bets for the upcoming season, you’ve come to the right place.

ASA is coming off a banner season in the NBA, one of their best in 30+ years and have already been hard at work assessing all of the NBA’s rosters/teams in anticipation of the season.

Here are the bets we’ve already made and the best options for your future options.

L.A. CLIPPERS OVER 46.5 WINS

This roster is largely intact from a year ago and will hopefully benefit from having Kawhi Leonard for more than the 52 games he played a year ago. Of course, that’s also a risk as Leonard has been injury prone, but when he’s healthy he is still one of the 10 best players in the league. The Clippers defensive efficiency numbers slipped last season but expect them to get back to their numbers of previous season when they lived in the top 10 in that category. In fact, the Clippers ranked top 10 in DEFF in 2020, 21 and 2022. Last year the Clippers finished 12th in offensive efficiency after finishing in the top 5 in two of the three previous seasons. Los Angeles won 44 games a year ago and had a positive +/- of +0.1PPG. The value in the number is our driving factor in this wager as the Oddmakers posted a total win number of 52.5 last season on this same roster. The Clippers had one of the worst records in the NBA in games decided by 5-points or less at 8-38 so expect a few more wins in close games and an easy Over ticket winner.

DENVER NUGGETS UNDER 52.5 WINS

The World Champs should see a regression in their win total for several factors including the fact they will have a target on their backs every night out. Secondly, the Nuggets suffered a few key losses in Bruce Brown and Jeff Green who were instrumental in their Championship run. Last season the Nuggets won 53 games in the regular season and had an average Margin of Victory of +3.2PPG which was 6th best in the league. Denver owned the 3rd best offensive efficiency rating during the regular season and were below average in defensive efficiency allowing 1.110-points per possession ranking 17th. We expect the rest of the Northwest Division to be improved over last season which will make getting to 53 wins more difficult. Overall, the entire Western Conference is loaded from top to bottom with up to seven teams being legitimate contenders to win the Conference. We are betting on a slight regression for the Nuggets and their regular season win total.

BOSTON CELTICS OVER 54.5 WINS

This Celtics roster is better than last year’s that won 57-games with the additions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis. The Celtics now feature a core group of Super Stars that can sustain winning results through multiple injuries if they occur during the regular season. They also have depth with the likes of Sam Hauser, Derrick White, Al Horford and Payton Prichard. Gone from the Celtics roster are Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Marcus Smart, but the additions far outweigh the subtractions. Boston was 1st in Efficiency differential last season at +6.6, they were 2nd in offensive efficiency averaging 1.181-points per possession and 3rd defensively allowing 1.115PPP. The Celtics had the best overall Average Margin of Victory at +5.9PPG and were one of only six teams to have a positive road differential at +2.9PPG. The Eastern Conference isn’t nearly as good as the West which will make winning 55+ games a very realistic opportunity for the C’s.

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 48.5 WINS

The Warriors have an aging roster, and the saying Father time waits for no man applies to this team more than anyone. Golden State didn’t get any younger this season when they traded for Chris Paul and we don’t see him being a great fit in the Warriors fast paced offense. When the Warriors were winning Championships, they had one of the best defenses in the NBA. In three of the four seasons the Warriors won it all they ranked top 10 in defensive efficiency three times. Last season this group slipped to 15th in the NBA in DEFF. In our rankings, we have the Pacific Division as the best in basketball with the Suns, Clippers, Lakers, Kings and Warriors. Golden State was 13-16 SU against the Pacific last season and collectively those teams are all better this season. The Warriors really struggled on the road last regular season with an 11-30 SU away record and an average Margin of Victory of minus -5.9PPG which ranked bottom five in the league. To be a great team in the NBA you have to win on the road and the Warriors just don’t qualify as a great team anymore. Golden State won 44 games a season ago and we’ll project a .500 season at 41-41.

Good luck – ASA

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NBA free bet – Saturday, April 22nd

ASA’s NBA free bet on Milwaukee Bucks Team Total OVER 112.5pts vs. Miami Heat, 7:30PM ET

Milwaukee essentially played without Giannis in Game 1 as he left the game with a back injury just 10-minutes in. The Bucks still managed 117 total points without him. Then in Game 2 the Bucks shot lights-out and put up 138. Milwaukee shot 54% overall and made 25 of 49 3-pointers or 51%. We don’t expect the Bucks to shoot that well again in Game 3 but they won’t have too for them to get to 113.  This team was the 8th highest scoring team in the league this season at 116.9PPG and ranked 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.120PPP. Milwaukee has the 10th best EFG% average in the NBA at 55.5%. This team was built with shooters and is reliant on 3-point shooting. Milwaukee attempts the 4th most 3’s per game in the league, and on average make 36.6% of their attempts. In Game 1 though the Bucks connected on just 11 of 45 3-pointers or 24%. That number is clearly an anomaly as the Bucks typically shoot much better than that AND the Heat don’t defend the Arc well, ranking 19th in the NBA allowing 36.3%. This Milwaukee team is deep and has capable scorers that can put up more than 113 with or without Giannis. Milwaukee has scored more than 113 in four straight games against the Heat and we like them to get there today as our NBA free bet.

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NBA Player Prop Bets – Friday, April 7th

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 27.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS Alperen Sengun – Houston Rockets

The Hornets are sitting a host of starters in this one so expect the Rockets starters to feast on weaker competition. Sengun is on tap for a big stat night against a Hornets team that allows the 3rd most points to Centers on average at 25.1PPG and also give up the 3rd most rebounds per game at 16.6. Sengun has totaled 28+ Pts+Rebs in 4 straight games. Easy OVER call here.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 14.5 POINTS – James Wiseman – Detroit Pistons

The Pistons are using these late season games to evaluate Wiseman and how he fits this roster moving forward. It has led to improved production and additional minutes in recent weeks. Wiseman has scored 14 or more points in 8 of his last ten games and gets a favorable matchup with the Pacers tonight. Indiana allows the 5th most average points to Centers at 24.6PPG. The Pacers allow 53.3PPG in the paint on the season which is the 26th highest number in the league. Bet OVER here.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 14.5 POINTS Jabari Smith Jr. – Houston Rockets

Smith Jr. has is averaging 14.2PPG over his last ten games and has scored 14 or more points in 6 of his last nine games. His usage and minutes have remained constant even with the Rockets season a shambles. In fact, his field goat attempts have gone up so we can bank on him getting enough looks in this game to go over his scoring total. The Hornets allow on average 24.3PPG to Power Forwards on the season which is the 2nd highest average allowed in the league.

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NBA Free Bet – Player Props bets – Friday, March 31st

ASA NBA Player Prop Bets – Friday March 31st

ASA Player Prop OVER 21.5 POINTS+ASSISTS – Chris Paul – Phoenix Suns

We like the scenario for Paul to have a big scoring and assist game tonight against a Nuggets team that may be without Jokic, Porter Jr. and Murray. The Nuggets are also the 4th worst team in the NBA when it comes to defending point guards in scoring as they allow on average 25.5PPG. They also give up the 2nd most assists to PG’s on the year at 8.8. Chris Paul has totaled 20 or more Pts+Ass in 8 of the last ten games. Easy Over call here.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 9.5 POINTS – Cory Joseph – Detroit Pistons

This could be a big scoring night for Joseph as he faces a Rockets team that allows 26.7PPG to point guards on the season which is the highest number in the NBA. As a team the Rockets are the 2nd worst defensive efficiency team in the NBA as they allow 1.197-points per possession. Joseph has averaged 13.44PPG in his last ten games and has scored in double-digits in 8 of his last nine games. Bet OVER here.

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NBA Prop Bets – Friday, March 17th

NBA Player Prop Bets are an AMAZING 105-73 on the season when you combine pay and free bets!

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 32.5 PTS+REBS+ASS – CJ McCollum – New Orleans Pelicans

McCollum gets a favorable match up here against a Rockets team that allows the most points to Point Guards in the NBA at 26.8PPG. The Rockets also give up the 5th most assists to PG’s on the season at 8.7. McCollum could get to 32.5 with just Points+Assists so the rebounds are just a bonus. In 5 of his last seven games he has totaled 36 or more Pts+Rebs+Ass. In his last ten games he is averaging 31.8 Pts+Rebs+Ass which is slightly below tonight’s total and not he faces a bad defense in Houston.

ASA NBA Player Prop OVER 11.5 POINTS+REBOUNDS Patrick Beverly – Chicago Bulls

This is a great spot to bet P-Bev who isn’t known for his scoring but he’ll be extra motivated tonight against his former team. The Wolves allow the 3rd most points in the league to PG’s this season at 26.2PPG. The Bulls and Beverly just faced a similar Rockets defense and P-Bev scored 16 points. We expect a double-digit scoring night for Beverly. Let’s throw in his rebounding numbers as he’s averaged 6.3RPG in his last ten games and has grabbed 10 and 11 in his last two games.

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