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NFL Prop Bets | MNF Vikings vs Bears | Sep 8 2025

Caleb Williams Player Prop Bet: Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-115) vs. Vikings

In 2024, Caleb Williams was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, taking 68 sacks across 17 games. His mobility was a necessity, as he scrambled or ran on designed plays frequently, finishing with 489 rushing yards on 81 attempts (6.0 yards per carry). Notably, Williams had 4+ carries in 14 of 19 games and averaged 4.8 per for the season, including 10 carries in each of his two matchups against the Vikings last season. These games highlight his tendency to run when pressured by Minnesota’s defense, which led the NFL in quarterback pressures in 2024.

Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Receptions (-110) vs. Bears

In 2024, Aaron Jones recorded 51 receptions on 67 targets over 17 games, averaging 3.0 receptions per game with the Vikings. He surpassed 2.5 receptions in 12 of 17 games, showcasing his reliability as a pass-catching back. Facing the Bears in 2024, Jones had 4 receptions for 46 yards in Week 12 and 3 receptions for 28 yards in Week 14, clearing the 2.5 mark in both games. With McCarthy, a rookie, starting under center, expect head coach Kevin O’Connell to lean on short, safe check-downs to Jones to ease the quarterback into the game. Minnesota’s offense in 2024 ranked 7th in passing yards (4,123), and Jones was a key outlet, with a 7.6% target share in the passing game.

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Sept 7th 2025 | 3 Bets

ASAwins has 3 NFL player prop bets for you today, Sunday September 7th 2025. We have sifted through all the NFL games and have come up with our three best bets for today. Enjoy the games Sunday.

Cleveland Browns TE David Njoku – Anytime TD scorer +250

Passing Touchdowns Allowed: The Bengals allowed 29 opponent passing touchdowns during the regular season, ranking them 30th out of 32 NFL teams in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.8 per game). Receptions Allowed to Tight Ends: The Bengals allowed 111 receptions to tight ends over the season, averaging 6.53 receptions per game. This placed them 31st in the NFL.  The Bengals defense surrendered the second-most TE touchdowns last season. Cincinnati’s offense, sharper after preseason reps, will likely push Cleveland to keep passing all game. Njoku could cash in on an anytime TD early or late.

Arizona Cardinals RB James Conner Over 15.5 Carries -130

James Conner is set to clear 15.5 carries against the Saints in Week 1. In 2024, he averaged 14.8 carries per game (236 carries over 16 games), hitting 16+ in 7 games. Conner, who thrives on volume and ranks second among RBs in rushing avoided tackles per game (4.5) and yards after contact per attempt (3.6) over the last two seasons. The Saints’ run defense ranked 28th last year, allowing 118.5 rushing yards per game and were 25th in opponents rushing attempts per game (28.8). With a competitive game script and Conner’s workhorse role, he should see enough volume to hit the over

New York Jets WR Garrett Wilson Under 4.5 Receptions -135

The New York Jets, with Justin Fields as their quarterback, are expected to lean heavily on a run-first offensive approach. Fields, known for his inconsistent passing accuracy (career 60.3% completion rate and 38.7% on-target throw percentage in 2024), struggled to connect with receivers, especially under pressure. This limits Wilson’s target volume (9 per game in 2024), as Fields often opts for scrambles or checkdowns to running backs like Breece Hall. Wilson averaged 5.9 receptions per game in 2024, but reaching today’s O/U is going to be difficult.

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NFL Free bet | Titans vs Broncos prediction | Sep 7 2025

ASA’s NFL Free bet – UNDER 16.5 Titans TEAM TOTAL vs. Broncos, 4:05pm ET

We don’t see the Tennessee Titans exceeding 16.5 points against the Denver Broncos in their Week 1 matchup.

Denver’s defense, which led the NFL with a franchise-record 63 sacks in 2024, is a nightmare for Tennessee’s shaky offensive line.

Rookie QB Cam Ward, making his NFL debut, faces a brutal test against a unit that ranked 3rd in scoring defense allowing 19.0 points per game, top 10 in nearly every passing defense category and were near impossible to run on allowing 4.0 yards per rush (2nd).

On average it took teams 17.1 yards gained to scored 1-point which was 2nd best in the NFL last season. Denver also had the best red zone defense allowing opponents to score a TD on just 44.44% of their attempts.

The Broncos also allowed the second-fewest yards per play (5.0) last season, stifling offenses in all facets.

Tennessee (Cam Ward) will be better offensively as the season progresses but to start it’s going to look like the offense that average just 18.2ppg a year ago (26th).

Denver’s home-field advantage and aggressive blitz scheme is going to make it extremely tough for the Titans to get to 17-points. Bet the Titans team total under 16.5.

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Free CFB Bet | Texas vs San Jose State | ASA breaks it down

#324 ASA Free CFB PLAY ON Texas -36.5 over San Jose State, Saturday at 12 PM ET

The Spartans could be in for a long day in Austin on Saturday.  Texas lost 14-7 @ Ohio State last week but they outplayed the Bucks on the field with a +133 total yard advantage. 

They also dominated the Buckeyes on the ground averaging 4.5 YPC to just 2.3 YPC for OSU.  The Longhorn defense was stellar limiting Ohio State to just 203 total yards on 3.7 YPP on the road. 

San Jose State lost at home 16-14 last weekend vs a Central Michigan team that was traveling across the country with entirely new systems on both sides of the ball.  How is this SJSU offense going to put up points on the road vs one of the best defenses in the country, and with extra motivation coming off a loss? 

Defensively, the Spartans allowed the brand new CMU offense to average 5.7 YPP and put up 247 yards on the ground last week.  Now they face an angry offense that is ready to blow someone’s doors off after last week. 

While only scoring 7 points last week, Texas did put up 336 total yards and 170 yards rushing on one of the best defenses in the country.  Huge step down here taking on SJSU’s stop unit. 

The Longhorns similar type opponent non-conference home games last year vs Colorado State, UTSA, and UL Monroe, they outscored those 3 opponents 159-10! 

After hearing all week how they blew last week’s game vs OSU, they’ll want to run this one up and get QB Manning rolling with confidence.  Texas has UTEP on deck so no lookahead for them.  Lay it. 

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AFC West Predictions | Wild West Shootout | 2025

afc west predictions

Welcome to the Wild West of AFC West Predictions for the 2025 Season!

By Point Train Consultants

Saddle up, folks, because the AFC West is about to serve up more drama than a saloon brawl at high noon! With the Chiefs not quite the juggernaut they’ve been, the Broncos and Chargers nipping at their heels, and the Raiders ready to surprise like a snake in your boot, this division is a betting bonanza. Here’s our predicted order of finish for 2025—Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, and Las Vegas Raiders—complete with stats, sass, and some wagering wisdom.

Kansas City Chiefs: Still Kings, But Their Crown’s a Bit Wobbly
The Kansas City Chiefs are predicted to top the AFC West again, but don’t expect the same old dominance. After a dazzling 15-2 record in 2024, their +5.9 point differential per game was surprisingly modest for a team that won so much—more like a polite nudge than a knockout punch. Patrick Mahomes remains the NFL’s golden boy, throwing for 4,183 yards last season, but with Rashee Rice sidelined for six games, the passing game leans on speedster Xavier Worthy and an aging Travis Kelce. The defense, anchored by Chris Jones (10.5 sacks in 2024), is stout but allowed 5.1 yards per catch after contact, a sneaky weakness. A tougher early schedule (Eagles, Bills) could make things dicey. Bet: UNDER 11.5 wins (-120)—the Chiefs are great, but not untouchable this time around.

Denver Broncos: Bo Nix and the Defense Are Ready to Lasso Some Wins
Galloping into second place, the Denver Broncos are poised for a 10-7 season, and we’re on the OVER 9.5 wins (+100) bet. Last year’s fourth-best defense per DVOA metrics returns with new toys like Dre Greenlaw and Talanoa Hufanga, making them a nightmare for opposing QBs. Bo Nix, in his second year under Sean Payton’s wizardry, threw for 3,775 yards and 29 TDs as a rookie, and his deep-ball magic (38.8% completion on 20+ yard throws) should shine brighter with Courtland Sutton and Evan Engram. The offensive line led the NFL in pass-block and run-block win rates in 2024, so expect RJ Harvey and J.K. Dobbins to keep defenses honest. The schedule gets brutal late, but Denver’s grit should carry them. Bet: OVER 9.5 wins (+100)—this team’s got the horses to hit double digits

Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert’s Arm Can’t Fix Everything
The Los Angeles Chargers settle for third with a 9-8 record, powered by Justin Herbert’s cannon (3,947 yards, 24 TDs in 2024) but held back by a shaky run game and thin WR corps. The Chargers’ 11-6 campaign last year leaned on a +12 turnover margin, but losing Joey Bosa and Poona Ford hurts a defense that struggled against the run (4.8 yards per carry allowed). Rookie RB Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris add some ground-and-pound, but the WR room beyond Ladd McConkey is more question mark than exclamation point. Jim Harbaugh’s tough-as-nails approach keeps them competitive, but a brutal late schedule could dim their playoff hopes. Bet: UNDER 9.5 wins (+110)—the Chargers are solid, but not quite electrifying enough to match last year’s win total.

Las Vegas Raiders: Pete Carroll’s Ready to Stir Up the Desert
Bringing up the rear but with a swagger, the Las Vegas Raiders could shock the league with an 8-9 record, making the OVER 7.5 wins (+145) a juicy bet. Pete Carroll’s arrival is like a shot of whiskey for this team, and Geno Smith, fresh off a career-best 4,382 yards in Seattle, brings stability to the QB spot. Rookie RB Ashton Jeanty, a Heisman runner-up, joins Brock Bowers (78 catches as a rookie) to give the offense some pop. Maxx Crosby, a one-man wrecking crew with 14.5 sacks in 2024, anchors a defense that’s otherwise a work in progress under Patrick Graham. The Raiders face a brutal -19 net rest disadvantage, but Carroll’s energy might just pull off some upsets. Bet: OVER 7.5 wins (+145)—this team’s got the moxie to surprise.

The AFC West Showdown: Buckle Up!
There you have it, folks—the AFC West is a rootin’-tootin’ rollercoaster ready to deliver thrills and spills! The Chiefs are still the sheriffs in town, but their grip’s loosening. The Broncos are charging with defensive muscle and Bo Nix’s growth, the Chargers are a Herbert-led enigma, and the Raiders are the wild card ready to crash the party. Grab your betting slip, tip your hat, and enjoy the wild ride!

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