Category: Freepicks

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NBA free pick | Hawks vs Magic | Oct 24 2025

ASAwins NBA free pick on: Atlanta Hawks +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET

This is a rematch from last season’s 7 vs 8 playoff meeting which the Magic won 120-95. Atlanta has a rebuilt roster and is expected by many experts to make a strong playoff run this season. The Hawks added Porzingis, Alexander-Walke and Kennard to the roster and also get Jalen Johnson back from injury, who was having an All-Star type season a year ago before getting hurt. Orlando also made a big splash in the offseason with the addition of Desmond Bane who will be a great fit for the Magic. These teams suffered different fates in their season openers with the Hawks getting blown out at home by the Raptors, while the Magic beat instate rivals the Miami Heat. We think it’s going to take some time for the Hawks to adjust to the new players on the roster while the Magic’s will be seamless. Orlando was 22-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +2.1ppg. Atlanta was 19-23 SU on the road a year ago with an average MOV of minus -1.1ppg. The home team won and covered the last three meetings between these two teams a year ago and the Magic own a 40-18 ATS record at home as a chalk dating back to 2023 with an average MOV in those games of +10.7ppg. We won’t bite on the revenge angle here and will lay the points with the Magic as today’s NBA free pick.

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NHL Free Bet | Kings vs Stars Prediction | Oct 23 2025

ASA’s NHL free play on: Dallas Stars (-150) vs. Los Angeles Kings 9pm ET

Tonight’s matchup at American Airlines Center pits the high-octane Dallas Stars against a stingy but road-weary Los Angeles Kings squad. With the Stars listed as -150 moneyline favorites, I’m backing Dallas to notch the victory and extend the home team dominance in this series.

Dallas enters with elite offensive firepower that has underperformed early on this season, but is ready to explode any given night. This Stars offense was 3rd league-wide in goals for (275 total last season, averaging 3.35 per game) while sitting 6th in goals against (222 allowed). At home, they went 28-10-3 a year ago, this Kings team limped to a 17-19-5 road mark in 2024-25. Digging deeper into the splits, Dallas posted a robust +1.12 average goal differential in their 41 home games last season, outpacing foes by more than a goal per night on familiar ice.

Conversely, LA managed just a -0.25 average goal differential across their 41 road tilts, where defensive lapses and sluggish starts were a recurring issues.

In net, Jake Oettinger gives Dallas a clear edge. The 26-year-old stud anchored the crease with a 36-18-4 record, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%, and 2 shutouts over 58 starts last year—numbers that ballooned his value with an eight-year extension this offseason. Oettinger thrives at home, where his puck-tracking and rebound control neutralize LA’s forecheck.

On the flip side, Darcy Kuemper was lights-out for the Kings in 2024-25 (31-11-7, 2.02 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 shutouts in 50 games), earning Vezina buzz and anchoring LA’s league-2nd goals against (203 total). But his road splits dipped noticeably (.915 SV%, 2.25 GAA), and facing Dallas’ top-5 power play could expose any early rust in this cross-conference clash.

Even-strength play tilts Dallas’ way too. The Stars ranked top-5 in 5-on-5 expected goals share (55.2%) last season, leveraging their speed and cycle game to control play and generate high-danger chances— an advantage that should wear down LA’s structured but aging blue line.

Head-to-head history seals the deal: The home team won all three meetings last season  and 8 of the last 10 dating back to 2022. Pick: Dallas Stars ML (-150) – Lay the juice; this feels like a 4-2 Stars dub.

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NBA Player Prop Bet | Khris Middleton | Oct 22 2025

ASA’s NBA PLAYER PROP BET:

OVER 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists – Khris Middleton Washington Wizards

K-Midd returns to Milwaukee tonight to face his former mates and the team he played for 12 seasons. Middleton looked healthy in the preseason playing 20+ minutes in two games and he is tabbed a starter tonight for the Wiz. His usage should be 30+ minutes in this game with projected numbers of: 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Washington was the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago which means plenty of possession in this game against the Bucks, who were only slightly better than league average in Defensive Efficiency a year ago.

We expect a big game out of Middleton in his return to Milwaukee.

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Betting

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NBA Free pick | Rockets vs Thunder | Oct 21 2025

ASAwins NBA Free play on UNDER 227.5 Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET

The public has jumped on the OVER in this game but the handle is on UNDER. We like what the betting market is saying about this game and will put our money on a low scoring affair. Obviously that is not the only reason we like this game UNDER as our math model is projecting 224.3 total points. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA defensively during the regular season a year ago allowing just 1.075 points per possession. The Rockets were 4th best in that stat category allowing 1.107PPP. OKC was 6th in pace of play, but the Rockers were 17th. The Thunder were one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA a year ago, the Rockets were 13th. Houston made a huge trade in the offseason and brought in Kevin Durant but had to give up Jalen Green in the deal. The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet for the season who was 3rd in scoring at 14.1ppg and led the team in assists. This team is going to be a match up nightmare for teams as they start 6’7 Amen Thompson then have four players all over 6’11. OKC is the defending Champ and odds on favorite to win it all again. They will however be without second leading scorer Jalen Williams for this game and could be missing Alex Caruso who was banged up in the preseason. We expect both offenses to be slightly behind the defenses to start the season and predict a game below 224. 

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NFL Free Bet | Eagles vs Vikings | Oct 19 2025

Point Train NFL Free Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 in the First Half @ Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT

RATING: 3UNIT

  • We don’t trust the Eagles for the full game but feel they’ll come out an play very well and inspired in the first half coming off a terrible loss vs the Giants
  • The Eagles average 14.8 points in the first half this year which is 4th in the NFL.  Their first half point margin is +1.8 per game
  • The Eagles have trailed at half in only 2 of their 6 games vs Rams and Giants
  • The Eagles are averaging 2.83 points per drive in the first half which is 6th best in the NFL
  • The Vikings have trailed at the half in 4 of their 5 games this season. 
  • The Vikings are averaging just 11.8 points in the first half and they’ve scored only 3 offensive TD’s in the first half this season
  • The Vikings have scored TD’s on only 3 of their 29 first half possessions this season which is barely a 10% rate – that ranks 28th in the NFL
  • We anticipate the Eagles getting off to a fast start and leading at the half

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