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NFL predictions | 1/28/24 | Player Props and Free bet

ASA player props and free bet January 28th

BALTIMORE RAVENS – LAMAR JACKSON OVER 10.5 RUSHING ATTEMPTS

Jackson’s rushing total would be an easy write up but last week his rushing total was 55.5. This is easily the highest rushing total he’s had in the last ten games…so no value whatsoever.  We like Over his attempts of 10.5 instead. Jackson has averaged 9.35 rushing attempts per game and ran it 11 times last week against a good Texans rush defense. Jackson has rushed it 11 or more times in 4 of the last six games he’s played in. Last week Buffalo Bills QB Allen ran it 12 times against this Chiefs defense. With Kansas City in man coverage defensively that gives Jackson more opportunities to run with the DB’s backs to the line of scrimmage.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – BROCK PURDY OVER 274.5 PASSING YARDS

Purdy has been under 60% completion rate 3 times this season. Once last week in rainy conditions vs. Green Bay and once each vs. Cleveland and Baltimore who both rank top 5 in opposing QB’s complete percentage. Purdy now faces a Lions defense that is 30th in passing yards per attempt and 31st in yards per completion.

The Lions Pass defense in the last 5 games has been atrocious. Here is what the last 5 oppossing QB’s have done to them. .

N Mullens 411 (261)

D Prescott 345 (ssn ave 265)

N Mullens 396 (261)

M Stafford 367 (ssn ave 264)

B Mayfield 349 *and how many big plays did he miss?* (ssn ave 238)

Purdy averaged 266.5PYPG this season and threw for over 272 8 times this season.

DETROIT LIONS JARED GOFF – OVER 255.5 PASSING YARDS

He’s thrown for over this number in 6 straight, and 12 times this season overall. He averages 270.5PYPG. San Francisco is ‘average’ or below in pass defense. They allow 213.4PYPG (14th), allow 23.9 completions per game (30th) and are 21st in completion % against. If the Lions fall behind, they will abandon the running game and throw it on every down. Detroit was 10th in passing attempts per game this season, 2nd in passing yards per game, 5th in completion percentage and 7th in yards per completion.

FREE BET DETROIT LIONS OVER TEAM TOTAL 20.5

The Lions averaged 27.2PPG on the season which was 5th most in the league. On the road they put up 24.1PPG. Detroit was 9th in Yards Per Point scored as it took them just 14.4 yards gained for every 1-point scored. The Lions averaged 5.9 yards per play and have an offense capable of explosive plays. They scored 20 or more points in 16 of nineteen games this season.

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NFL Playoff Future Bet – Passing Leaders – Point Train Consulting

NFL Playoff Futures Bets to Make – By Point Train Consulting

Odds offered at Draftkings.com

MOST PASSING YARDS IN THE PLAYOFFS

NFC QUARTERBACKS

Dak Prescott +360

Brock Purdy +700

Jared Goff +750

Baker Mayfield +1600

Jalen Hurts +1700

Matt Stafford +2200

Jordan Love +3000

AFC QUARTERBACKS

Josh Allen +500

Patrick Mahomes +550

Lamar Jackson +700

Tua Tagovaliloa +950

Joe Flacco +1200

CJ Stroud +2000

Mason Rudolph +3500

First off you have to project who will play the most games. Clearly the 49ers and Ravens, barring a significant injury, will be favored in every game up until the Super Bowl.  That makes those two teams likely to play three games each as both get a bye in the first round of the playoffs. Obviously, if a team that is playing this weekend advances to the Super Bowl, those quarterbacks will have an added game to their total passing stats resume.

Of the playoff teams, Miami averaged the most passing yards per game on the season followed by Detroit, Dallas, San Francisco, Kansas City, Houston, Buffalo, Rams, Packers, Eagles, Buccaneers, Browns, Ravens and the Steelers. The teams that averaged the most passing attempts in order were: Chiefs, Browns, Cowboys, Lions, Texans, Rams, Packers, Bills, Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Steelers, Ravens, 49ers.

Our focus immediately goes to the two favorites in the 49ers and Ravens. Baltimore is clearly a run first team as they average the most rushing attempts per game at 31.8 and they rank down the list in passing yards per game and attempts.  In other words, we are not betting on Lamar Jackson.

San Francisco clearly runs a lot too at 29.4 attempts per game, but Purdy also slings it for an average of 257.9 yards per game which is 4th most in the league. The Niners also tend to hit big passing plays as they average 13-yards per completion which is 1st in the league.

At +700 and with the likely scenario that the 49ers play three games we have to put a bet on him at these odds.

We will hedge that wager with a bet on the favorite Dak Prescott. The Cowboys face the Packers in Game 1 and the 27th overall ranked DVOA defense. Granted the Packers rank 9th in passing yards per game allowed but they are 17th in completion percentage against and 18th in yards per completion. Dallas will benefit from playing the first two rounds of the playoffs at home in a Dome and the third game in San Francisco in what should be good conditions. The Cowboys averaged the 3rd most passing yards per game at 258.6, but at home that average improved to 305YPG, best in the NFL.

At +360 we have to invest in Dak Prescott to have the most playoff passing yards.

You can essentially rule out the contenders in the AFC as they are likely going to be playing outdoors in potentially adverse conditions.

Of course, if Dallas and San Francisco get upset in the early rounds none of this matters but the odds are on our side that these two teams play three games each.

Brock Purdy +700

Dak Prescott +360

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NFL FREE BET | GIANTS vs SAINTS prediction | December 17th

POINT TRAIN New York Giants @ New Orleans Saints – 1PM ET

WAGER – GIANTS +5.5

  • Tommy DeVito and the Giants find themselves in a 3-game winning streak and fresh off a convincing win over a Packers team that was surging up the standings.
  • A newfound ground game has made life much easier for DeVito and the passing game which makes their offense that much tougher to defend. NY is averaging 5.0-Yards Per Rush in their last three games, up from their season average of 4.1.
  • DeVito has been efficient and a game manager. In 3 games he’s 52/73 for 595 total yards with 5 TD’s to 0 INT’s.
  • The Saints defense has been in a steady decline allowing 5.3-Yards Per Play in their last three games. Prior to facing the pathetic Panthers offense last week, the Saints had allowed 27, 24 and 33 points in the three previous games.
  • The Giants defense has held 5 of their last eight opponents to 19 or less points.  
  • The Saints don’t enjoy much of a home field advantage with a 3-3 record and an average point differential of +0.2ppg.
  • Grab the points with the G-Men

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    NFL free bet | Vikings vs Bengals prediction | December 16

    ASA’s FREE NFL play on UNDER 40.5 Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals, Saturday 1PM ET

    NFL free bet from ASA on Saturday, December 16th. The Bengals w/Jake Browning under center scoring-fest is about to come crashing back down to earth this week when he faces this Vikings defense. Minnesota just pitched a shutout in Las Vegas and has allowed 12 total points in the past two games. The Vikings defense has allowed 19 or less points in 7 of their last ten games. Minnesota ranks 10th in total yards per game allowed, 8th in yards per play allowed, 5th against the run and allows the 14th least passing yards per game. In their last three games the Vikes defense is giving up just 4.7 yards per play. Browning and the Bengals put up 34-points against the Colts and Jaguars in the past two weeks but neither of those two defenses are as good as the one they’ll face on Saturday. The Bengals defense has been atrocious this season but the Vikings with QB Mullins won’t be able to exploit that weakness. It won’t help that the Vikings will be without RB Mattison who is out here. In their last three games the Vikings are averaging just 4.5YPP and averaging 1-point scored for every 26 yards gained. The Bengals are allowing 6.5YPP on the season but have showed improvement in their last 3 games allowing just 5.5YPP. We would love to see this line go to 41 for a better number but will make a small wager or free NFL bet on Under 40.5.

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