Tag: NFC East Futures

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AFC East Prediction | NY Jets Over 9.5 | 9-4-24

ASA’s AFC EAST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

AFC East Prediction – New York Jets – Over 9.5 Wins (-150)

We went into our research on the Jets thinking we’d be leaning toward the Under on their win total.  After a deep dive into their off-season transactions, schedule, etc… we realized our original thoughts were off and the Over is the play here. 

They should be very good in the trenches on both sides of the ball this year which is a huge key.  Last year they were flat out bad on the offensive line but their off-season transactions, picking up 2 of the top OT’s in the NFL (Smith from Dallas & Moses from Baltimore) have this unit ranked in the top 5 in the league per PFF. 

The defensive line was fantastic last year and is ranked #1 per PFF heading into this season.  The stop unit as a whole for New York is among the best in the NFL and led the league in YPP allowed at 4.6 and #2 in YPG allowed at 292.  If the offense can be average, this team will have a very good record. 

QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to be back and they signed veteran back up Tyrod Taylor, who has started nearly 100 games in his career, just in case.  The weapons are solid with RB Hall returning (1000 yards rushing & 600 yards receiving), along with WR’s Wilson and Williams who they picked up in free agency. 

The Fly Boys face the 4th easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponents win projections and face the league’s worst team, the Patriots (4.5 projected wins) twice.  Outside the AFC East, they also face the Broncos, Titans, Cardinals, Vikings, and Seahawks who are all projected to have losing records this season. 

If Rodgers can stay healthy, we realize that’s a big if, the offense should go from 31st in YPP & YPG to middle of the pack at worst.  That should be enough to get to 10 wins this with their high end defense and easy schedule.      

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NFC East prediction | Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins

NFC EAST Prediction on the Washington Commanders Over 6.5 Wins in 2023

NFL WIN TOTAL – OVER 6.5 WINS WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +110

The number on the Commanders opened at 7.5 wins at several shops (even 8.5 at a few) but was bet down to the current O/U of 6.5 with plus money. We like the value now and will bet Washington Over 6.5 wins and would even consider Over 7.5 wins at plus +175. Washington has decided to start Sam Howell at quarterback after a failed experiment with Taylor Heinicke and Carson Wentz in 2022. The Commanders won 8 games last season with a passing offense that was 21st in the NFL in yards per game and was 28th in passing DVOA. Howell will be an upgrade at that position if he plays as well as he did in the preseason where he was28 of 37, 75% completion rate for 265 yards with 3 TD’s and zero interceptions. Washington allowed just 20.2PPG last season which ranked 8th best in the NFL. The Commanders allowed 5.2 Yards Per Play which was 10th best in the league and were 3rd overall in Yards Per Game allowed at 304.6YPG. Teams had a very tough time sustaining drives against the Commanders as they allowed foes to convert 3rd downs at a 31.90% which was best in the league. Teams had a tough time scoring TD’s in the Red Zone against the Commanders as they finished the 2022 season ranked 9th best in the NFL at 51.92%. Washington relied heavily on their running game with the 4th most rushing attempts in the league at 31.6. They averaged 126.1 rushing yards per game, which was 12th most. Granted, the Commanders play in the very tough NFC East, but they have a great defense, an upgrade at the QB position and should benefit from more fans support this season with Dan Snyder out as owner. Washington faces Arizona, Denver, Buffalo, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and the Giants in the first seven weeks of the season and other than Buffalo and Philly they are all very winnable games. Over 6.5 wins for the Washington Commanders in the NFC East prediction.

OTHER BETTING OPTIONS:

  • Terry McLaurin OVER 4.5 RECEIVING TOUCHDOWNS -108 – McLaurin has produced over 3,300 total receiving yards in three combined seasons and is only 1 of ten players to accomplish this impressive feat. His TD production is low considering the yardage, but he has caught 4, 5 and 5 TD’s in his last three seasons. His Red Zone targets have also been low considering his overall usage, but we are betting those change with new QB Sam Howell under center.

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