Author: Lee Kostroski

Enjoy a couple of NFL player prop bets for Thursday, September 11th from ASA. Watch weekly for free prop bets and other wagering opportunities from all of the experts here at ASAwins.com

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

In his debut with the Commanders, Samuel caught 7 of 10 targets for 77 yards. He led the team with a 36% first-read rate (per Fantasy Points Data), indicating he was Daniels’ primary target on over a third of his dropbacks. Additionally, 40% of his targets (4 catches) came behind the line of scrimmage, including two screen passes (per PFF). In Week 1, the Packers’ defense forced Detroit’s Jared Goff into quick, short throws, resulting in a league-low 4.2 average depth of target (ADOT). This aligns perfectly with Samuel’s usage, as his 2.48 yards per route run and 83.8% route participation rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). The Commanders are likely to lean on the pass, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 33.9 pass attempts per game against Green Bay since last season (9th-most in the NFL). Samuel’s projected 7.1 targets rank in the 79th percentile among wide receivers (per EV Analytics). Samuel also thrives against the Packers’ defensive schemes. Since last season, Green Bay has primarily used Cover 2 and Cover 3 coverages. Samuel’s 2024-2025 stats against these coverages are stellar: 20 catches on 26 targets in 129 routes against Cover 3, and 9 catches on 13 targets in 67 routes against Cover 2 (per Sharp Football Analysis). His most common routes—crossers and hitches—have yielded high completion rates against Green Bay, with 83.3% (45/54) on crossers and 82.5% (94/114) on hitches since last season.

Packers WR Matthew Golden Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

In the Packers’ Week 1 win over the Lions, Golden, a rookie first-round pick, ran routes on just 58% of Green Bay’s dropbacks, earning only 2 targets for a 9% target share (per Fantasy Points Data). He finished with 1 catch for 12 yards, underscoring his limited role in a crowded receiver room. Green Bay’s run-heavy approach was evident, with 54% of offensive snaps being run plays and only 22 dropbacks from Jordan Love, who spreads the ball among multiple pass-catchers, including Jayden Reed (55 receptions, 857 yards in 2024), Romeo Doubs (46 receptions, 601 yards), and Christian Watson (29 receptions, 620 yards).

The Commanders’ secondary allowed only a 60.7% catch rate to wide receivers in 2024, ranking 10th in the NFL (per ESPN). Against Cover 3 schemes, which Washington used on 38% of snaps last season, Golden’s college stats at Texas show modest production: 12 catches on 20 targets for 148 yards across 2024 (per Sports Info Solutions).

With a projected target volume of 2.5-3 (EV Analytics), Golden would need an unusually high yards-per-catch average (12.3+ YPC) to exceed 30.5 yards, unlikely given Washington’s 5.6 yards per target allowed to wide receivers since 2024.