Tag: nfl predictions

Posted on by

NFL Free play | Dolphins vs Falcons | Oct 26 2025

#268 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -7 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday a 1 PM ET

We like the Falcons to bounce back after a poor showing last Sunday @ San Francisco.  Atlanta opened as a dog last week vs the Niners and flipped to a small favorite but didn’t show up to play losing 20-10.  The yardage was dead even at 4.9 YPP (season low for the Falcons) and Atlanta was shut out on downs in their final 2 drives.  Prior to that loss, the Falcons had topped Washington by 7 and Buffalo by 10 (2 playoff caliber teams), both at home.  Miami is in a freefall.  They are now 1-6 SU on the season after getting rolled 31-6 @ Cleveland last week.  It was the first time in 11 games the Browns topped 17 points.  This will be the Browns 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they are 0-4 SU on the road (3 of those losses coming by double digits).  The Fins have internal issues and head coach McDaniel is on the hot seat to say the least.  Seems like this team is very close to imploding and if they get down in this game, it might be lights out.  Atlanta is one of 2 teams that ranks in the top 7 in total offense and total defense (other is KC).  Miami ranks 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  This is a terrible match up for the Dolphins defense as they rank dead last defending the run allowing 160 YPG on the ground and they are facing an Atlanta offense that averages 137 YPG rushing (4th in the NFL). No Penix Jr, No problem with vet Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta RB Robinson (6th in the NFL in rushing yards) had a poor outing vs SF (2.9 YPC) but he should have a field day vs this defense.  Miami’s offense will be without one of the key weapons, TE Waller, and they’re already missing Tyreek Hill.  Now facing the #2 defense (Atlanta allows just 265 YPG) we expect a struggle.  Atlanta wins this home tilt by more than a TD. 

On sale products

Posted on by

NFL Free Bet | Eagles vs Vikings | Oct 19 2025

Point Train NFL Free Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 in the First Half @ Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT

RATING: 3UNIT

  • We don’t trust the Eagles for the full game but feel they’ll come out an play very well and inspired in the first half coming off a terrible loss vs the Giants
  • The Eagles average 14.8 points in the first half this year which is 4th in the NFL.  Their first half point margin is +1.8 per game
  • The Eagles have trailed at half in only 2 of their 6 games vs Rams and Giants
  • The Eagles are averaging 2.83 points per drive in the first half which is 6th best in the NFL
  • The Vikings have trailed at the half in 4 of their 5 games this season. 
  • The Vikings are averaging just 11.8 points in the first half and they’ve scored only 3 offensive TD’s in the first half this season
  • The Vikings have scored TD’s on only 3 of their 29 first half possessions this season which is barely a 10% rate – that ranks 28th in the NFL
  • We anticipate the Eagles getting off to a fast start and leading at the half

On sale products

Posted on by

NFL Power Rankings | Oct 14 2025

nflpowerrankings

Point Train – NFL Power Rankings (Post-Week 6, 2025)

Here is a short NFL rankings based on what we’ve seen through games played on October 13th. These rankings are fluid and will fluctuate weekly. We are reflecting on their performance and alignment with analytics as of October 14, 2025.

  1. Detroit Lions 4-2: Explosive offense led to 4 straight wins and the losses have been respectable at Green Bay and Kansas City. (+49 total points differential) . Top-tier efficiency (3rd DVOA) despite early coaching hiccups. A legitimate contender.
  2. Seattle Seahawks 4-2: Quietly a current contender in the NFC. The Seahawks rank 1st DVOA overall. Lost to 5-1 Tampa Bay and 4-2 49ers. Top-10 in offensive/defensive YPPL.
  3. LA Rams: 4-2 after late-game bad breaks – blocked FGs, OT loss – or could be 6-0. Elite efficiency (top-10 YPPL both sides) makes them a sneaky contender with a veteran QB and a coach that knows how to win.
  4. Indianapolis Colts: High-octane offense (6.3 YPPL, 1st in scoring 32.3PPG) drives a 5-1 start. Defense lags but improving. “Indiana Jones” nickname fits QB Danny Jones who has played well in Indy (best QBR currently in league). Why isn’t Jones in the MVP conversation (+3000)? What if he leads the Colts to the best record in the AFC?
  5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield’s late-game heroics fuel a 5-1 record despite a +14 point differential. Disappointing defense 16th in Yards p/play allowed.
  6. Philadelphia Eagles: Smoke-and-mirrors 4-2 record with negative -1 point differential. Credit is due for wins against the Rams, Bucs, Chiefs. Questions abound after two straight losses – one to the Giants.
  7. Buffalo Bills: Dropped after a home loss to Patriots and MNF loss to the Falcons. 4-0 start was inflated by weak opponents (3-17 combined). Still a top-6 offense per DVOA. Josh Allen can overcome a lot…just not bad coaching or play defense.
  8. San Francisco 49ers: Injury-plagued but resilient (4-2). Mac Jones (3-1) outshines Purdy (1-1), raising QB questions. Health remains a critical concern.
  9. Green Bay Packers: Solid 4-2 with balanced offense/defense (top-10 in both Offensive/Defensive DVOA). Looked like Super Bowl contender in Weeks 1 & 2, then imploded versus the Browns and defense suspect in tie at Cowboys.
  10. Kansas City Chiefs: Don’t count out the Chiefs after their 3-3 start for the perennial contenders. Offense struggled the first few weeks but is starting to click now. The O took a jump last week going from 5.3YPPL to 5.7YPPL.
  11. Denver Broncos: Scrappy 4-2 squad with underrated defense (6th DVOA). Offense needs consistency, but they’re exceeding expectations and tracking better than my preseason rankings.
  12. Washington Commanders: Not surprised with 3-3 start with flashes of offensive brilliance. Analytics (7th-12th range) suggest they’re a playoff dark horse. They face a tough 3-game stretch at KC, vs. Seattle and Detroit.
  13. Jacksonville Jaguars: Competitive 4-2 team with improving efficiency. Young roster finding its groove and you can’t discredit wins at 49ers and home against the Chiefs. Verdict still out but certainly a contender in the AFC South.
  14. LA Chargers: 4-2 but inconsistent. Injuries are always a major concern in the NFL and the Chargers’ top 4 running backs are out or injured. Not sure a one-dimensional offense can survive in today’s NFL.
  15. New England Patriots: Upset win over Buffalo highlights 4-2 record. Shockingly the offense has outplayed the defense thus far under coach Vrabel. Pats fans should temper their enthusiasm as the other three wins have come against Miami, Carolina and New Orleans.
  16. Pittsburgh Steelers: 4-1 with an offense that ranks bottom 10 in Yards p/play (5.1YPPL) but thrives on turnovers with +1.4 per game (2nd most). The defense is starting to play like a Mike Tomlin unit allowing just 5.2YPPL.
  17. Atlanta Falcons: 3-2 with a pedestrian offense. 2nd year QB Penix Jr ranks 20th in passing YPG, 19th in QBR but has upside and a stud RB in Robinson. The defense rates are much higher in efficiency stats (1st) than traditional numbers.
  18. Minnesota Vikings: 3-2 despite major concerns with their O-line. Offense shows flashes with Wentz providing stability and a loaded WR group. Defensive top 10 in efficiency ratings and 2nd in 3rd down conversion percentage, 8th in Yards p/play allowed and 5th in scored D allowing 19.4PPG.
  19. Houston Texans: Disappointing 2-3 after high expectations. Is the offense for real after putting up 26 and 44 points the past two weeks? Hold on a minute, those numbers come against a Titans D allowing 27PPG (26th) and the Ravens giving up 32PPG (32nd). The defense looks to be real as they’ve held 4 of five opponents to 10-points or less.
  20. Chicago Bears: 3-2 after a 3-game winning streak. The Bears have some positive momentum, but they were outgained in both wins against the Cowboys and Raiders and were +3 in TO’s against Washington.
  21. Arizona Cardinals: 2-4 with the wins coming against Carolina and New Orleans – hardly impressive. One of two teams in the NFL with a losing overall record but a positive point differential (Houston).
  22. Dallas Cowboys: 2-3-1 and a tough team to figure out right now. Shocking tie with Green Bay but needed OT to beat a bad Giants team, held off the Jets two weeks ago then lost at Carolina last week. Polar opposites with offense scoring 30.6PPG (3rd) and defense giving up 30.7PPG (31st).
  23. Baltimore Ravens: Shocking 1-5 start. The defense is sputtering and offense can’t replicate last year’s dominance. Harbaugh’s defense has allowed 37+ points in four of six games this season. They gave up 37 or more points just two times prior to this season dating back to 2022. No Lamar Jackson is devastating.
  24. Carolina Panthers: 3-3 and better than last season. There is a light at the end of the tunnel with a 5-4 record dating back to the end of last season.
  25. Cincinnati Bengals: 2-4 and reeling. The desperate Bengals traded for the fossil known as Joe Flacco who couldn’t beat out a pair of average rookies for the starting job in Cleveland. A bottom 5 defense doesn’t help.
  26. Cleveland Browns: 1-5 and lifeless. Offense (27th) is among the league’s worst; defense has been outstanding but how long before they wear down.
  27. Las Vegas Raiders: 2-4 The defense is the bright spot as they allow 5.2YPPL (11th) and rank 10th in DVOA. The offense on the other hand is bottom 5 in most metrics.
  28. New York Giants: 2-4 after an upset win over the Eagles last Sunday. QB Dart has provided a spark for the offense but it’s going to be short-lived as teams get more film on him.
  29. Miami Dolphins: 1-5 and decimated by injuries. Not all the blame can fall on QB Tua as the O-line is atrocious. The defense offers little resistance allowing 6.3YPPL.
  30. New Orleans Saints: 1-5 and may struggle to get 5 wins this season. 30th in total DVOA.
  31. Tennessee Titans: 1-5 and at least has something to build on with rookie QB Cam Ward.
  32. New York Jets: 0-6 and rock bottom – After watching the Jets last week, there isn’t a worse coach in the NFL than Aaron Glenn. QB struggles and defensive lapses make them non-competitive.

Thanks for taking a minute to read our NFL Power rankings and we hope you enjoyed our thoughts on the current NFL landscape. Don’t forget you can take advantage of our NFL pick service weekly here on this website with guaranteed bets – only pay when you win. 


~ Cheers Marty

Products by Category

Posted on by

NFL Player Prop Bets | QB’s Big Day | Oct 12 2025

Patriots – QB Drake Maye OVER 232.5 Passing Yards vs. Saints

Drake Maye just torched the Bills for 273 yards in a wild upset win last week, and he’s cleared 232.5 passing yards in 3 of his 5 starts this season—his two misses? Barely under by 3 yards in Week 2, and then they blew out the Panthers in Week 4 and sat on the lead. The Saints’ pass D ranks 23rd in opponents’ completion % (69.54%) and 20th in yards per attempt (6.8). They don’t sack QBs much either, averaging just 2.4 per game, so Maye should have time to sling it. Maye’s the 2nd-most accurate QB in the NFL at 73.38% completions, especially now that he’s clicking with Stefon Diggs for 100+ yards the last two weeks straight.

Chargers – QB Justin Herbert OVER 21.5 Rushing Yards vs Dolphins

The Chargers are down to their 3rd and 4th string RB’s in Haskins and Vidal so expect Herbert to pick up the rushing slack on broken plays. Herbert has rushed for 24 or more yards in 4 of five games this season and coming off a 60-yard game against the Commanders. Miami ranks last in the league against the run allowing 174 rushing yards per game. The Dolphins give up 5.6 yards per rush (31st). They simply don’t win in the trenches. Miami has allowed an average of 32.8 rushing yards to opposing QB’s this season and Herberts willingness to run makes this a very attractive prop bet Sunday.

On sale products

Posted on by

Thursday NFL Player Prop Bets | Eagles vs Giants | Oct 9 2025

ASA has two Thursday NFL Player Prop Bets | Eagles vs Giants Predictions

Eagles RB Saquon Barkley OVER 15.5 Receiving Yards

The Giants defense will have a tough time stopping Barkley tonight in his return to New York City. The Men in Blue allow the 24th most passing yards overall per game at 237.2 with running backs accounting for 31 of those yards. The lead running back for Giants opponents have gone OVER their receiving prop in 3 of the last four games. Barkley has been OVER this stat line in 3 of five games this season with an average of 25.6 receiving yards per game. Barkley should see at least 4 targets (also betting OVER 2.5 targets) in this game and needs just one decent play to get OVER this number.

Giants QB Jaxson Dart UNDER 177.5 Passing Yards

The Giants WR injuries are taking a toll with Nabers and Slayton both out, leaving Wan’Dale Robinson as his best option. Dart is averaging just 5.2 yards per completion with 313 total passing yards in two games. He has a QBR of 43.6 and we don’t anticipate the Giants having him drop back and throw 40 times as he did last week against the Saints. Philadelphia has average or below passing defensive statistics, but they’ve also faced some of the league’s better QB’s and passing attacks. With Philadelphia dominating the time of possession in this game we don’t see the Giants getting many opportunities offensively.

Check back weekly for more NFL Player Prop bets or Predictions from the experts at ASAwins.com

On sale products

BETTING PICKS