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NFL player prop bets | Commanders vs Packers | Sept 11 2025

Enjoy a couple of NFL player prop bets for Thursday, September 11th from ASA. Watch weekly for free prop bets and other wagering opportunities from all of the experts here at ASAwins.com

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

In his debut with the Commanders, Samuel caught 7 of 10 targets for 77 yards. He led the team with a 36% first-read rate (per Fantasy Points Data), indicating he was Daniels’ primary target on over a third of his dropbacks. Additionally, 40% of his targets (4 catches) came behind the line of scrimmage, including two screen passes (per PFF). In Week 1, the Packers’ defense forced Detroit’s Jared Goff into quick, short throws, resulting in a league-low 4.2 average depth of target (ADOT). This aligns perfectly with Samuel’s usage, as his 2.48 yards per route run and 83.8% route participation rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). The Commanders are likely to lean on the pass, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 33.9 pass attempts per game against Green Bay since last season (9th-most in the NFL). Samuel’s projected 7.1 targets rank in the 79th percentile among wide receivers (per EV Analytics). Samuel also thrives against the Packers’ defensive schemes. Since last season, Green Bay has primarily used Cover 2 and Cover 3 coverages. Samuel’s 2024-2025 stats against these coverages are stellar: 20 catches on 26 targets in 129 routes against Cover 3, and 9 catches on 13 targets in 67 routes against Cover 2 (per Sharp Football Analysis). His most common routes—crossers and hitches—have yielded high completion rates against Green Bay, with 83.3% (45/54) on crossers and 82.5% (94/114) on hitches since last season.

Packers WR Matthew Golden Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

In the Packers’ Week 1 win over the Lions, Golden, a rookie first-round pick, ran routes on just 58% of Green Bay’s dropbacks, earning only 2 targets for a 9% target share (per Fantasy Points Data). He finished with 1 catch for 12 yards, underscoring his limited role in a crowded receiver room. Green Bay’s run-heavy approach was evident, with 54% of offensive snaps being run plays and only 22 dropbacks from Jordan Love, who spreads the ball among multiple pass-catchers, including Jayden Reed (55 receptions, 857 yards in 2024), Romeo Doubs (46 receptions, 601 yards), and Christian Watson (29 receptions, 620 yards).

The Commanders’ secondary allowed only a 60.7% catch rate to wide receivers in 2024, ranking 10th in the NFL (per ESPN). Against Cover 3 schemes, which Washington used on 38% of snaps last season, Golden’s college stats at Texas show modest production: 12 catches on 20 targets for 148 yards across 2024 (per Sports Info Solutions).

With a projected target volume of 2.5-3 (EV Analytics), Golden would need an unusually high yards-per-catch average (12.3+ YPC) to exceed 30.5 yards, unlikely given Washington’s 5.6 yards per target allowed to wide receivers since 2024.

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Nov 17th 2024

NFL Player Prop Bets – Free prop bets for Sunday, Nov 17th 2024

Ravens Lamar Jackson over 42.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Jackson has surpassed 45 rushing yards in seven of his ten games this season. In the previous two weeks he has not needed to use his legs as much, shredding the Broncos and Bengals in the midst of throwing 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He matches up against the Steelers and their second ranked scoring defense on the road this Sunday. A better defense actually suits Jackson’s rushing prop as he will be forced to run more rather than get what he wants from the pocket. Lamar has only played in 2 of the previous 6 games against Pittsburgh, and he rushed for 55 and 45 yards respectively. Expect Jackson to return to his scrambling ways in a huge divisional matchup in the highest projected point total of the weekend. 

49ers Christian McCaffrey Over 27.5 Rec Yards (-120)

CMC was finally back last week and totalled 107 yards with 68 receiving yards on seven targets. With such involvement in the passing game, especially after missing every game so far this season, McCaffrey will see plenty of volume once again. Another hotly contested division game has the second highest O/U of week 11. Seattle has a middle of the road defense but can fill it up on offense. Points should be plentiful and if CMC plays 88% of the running back snaps again, it’s hard to imagine he does not amass his receiving total. 

Dolphins Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+120) 

Hill caught his first touchdown since week one in last week’s win vs the Rams. Since Tua has been back, the Dolphins offense went from abysmal to just mediocre. With so many weapons and Tyreek’s immense talent it’s only a matter of time before Miami gets back on track. Hill had so many explosive plays and 13 TDs last season. Las Vegas ranks 30th in points allowed in 2024 and if Reek is ever going to have a breakout game, its going to be after a big win while gaining chemistry back with his quarterback against a bad team. Hill has nine targets the past two games combined which is unacceptable. The squeaky wheel treatment better be in store for the NFLs fastest man. 

Colts Jonathon Taylor – Over 81.5 Rush Yards (-110)

Taylor has been over this rushing total in 5 of seven games this season and with the QB change back to Richardson, the Colts should feed Taylor and pound the football against a suspect Jets D. Taylor averages over this number on the season and is averaging 18 carries per game so we know he’ll get his share of carries. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and anchor an offense that averages 4.7 yards per rush, 9th most in the NFL. The Jets defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing 134 rushing yards per game 25th most in the NFL. Opposing teams have run the football on average 31 times per game against the Jets, 3rd highest number in the league.

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RAVENS vs COWBOYS PREDICTION | FREE BET | 9-22-24

NFL FREE BET – Baltimore Ravens -1 vs. Dallas Cowboys prediction, Sunday Sept 22nd 2024

The Ravens were many experts picks and one of the betting favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl this season. With a loss on Sunday the Ravens would fall to 0-3 SU and be in serious trouble of missing the postseason.

Dallas won their opener in Cleveland against a bad Browns team then were destroyed last week at home by the Saints. New Orleans ran through the Dallas D for 190 yards while Saints QB Carr dissected them through the air with 11/16 passing for 242 yards.

Baltimore will pound the football against the soft interior of the Cowboys defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league in stopping the run in 2023. Baltimore led the league in rushing yards a year ago at 156.4 at 5.0YPR. This season the Ravens are averaging 5.7YPR (3rd) and 168 rushing yards per game. The Ravens have outgained their first two opponents by over 200+ total yards and have the 11th best yards per play differential in the NFL.

In comparison, the Cowboys have a negative yards per play differential of -0.4. The Ravens defense has allowed less than a 50-yards rushing average in their first two games and will bottle up a Cowboys run game that averages just 85RYPG.

The Cowboys will want to throw often in this game, but the Ravens pass defense allowed the fewest passing yards per attempt last season and ranked 8th in passing yards allowed p/game.

Baltimore clearly has the coaching advantage and Lamar Jackson has owned the NFC with a 18-1 ATS run. Back the desperate team here.

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NFL Rookie of the Year Prediction | By ASA | 8-26-24

NFL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR – +500 QB JAYDEN DANIELS – WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

The Washington Commanders are entering the 2024 season with a renewed sense of optimism, driven by the arrival of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels and the fresh leadership of head coach Dan Quinn and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury. Daniels, a dynamic dual-threat quarterback out of LSU, was a highly-touted prospect in the 2024 NFL Draft, and the Commanders are betting on his talent to be the future of the franchise. We like a future bet on Daniels to win NFL Rookie of the Year.

Daniels brings a unique blend of athleticism, arm strength, and poise to Washington’s offense. Known for his ability to extend plays with his legs and make accurate throws on the run, Daniels is expected to add a new dimension to the Commanders’ attack. His transition to the NFL will be guided by Kingsbury, who has a proven track record of developing young quarterbacks and creating high-powered offenses. Kingsbury’s system, known for its quick tempo and emphasis on spreading the field, should complement Daniels’ skill set and allow him to thrive early in his career.

Head coach Dan Quinn, known for his defensive prowess, brings a championship pedigree to Washington, having previously led the Atlanta Falcons to a Super Bowl appearance. While Quinn’s expertise lies on the defensive side of the ball, his leadership and experience will be crucial in shaping the overall culture and identity of the team.

The Commanders’ offense will feature playmakers like wide receiver Terry McLaurin and running back Brian Robinson Jr., providing Daniels with reliable targets and a solid run game to lean on. The offensive line, bolstered by key additions in the offseason, will need to give Daniels the protection he needs to make plays and develop as a rookie.

While the learning curve for Daniels will be steep, the combination of his raw talent, Kingsbury’s offensive creativity, and Quinn’s steady hand could set the stage for an exciting new era in Washington. The 2024 season will be a crucial year of development for Daniels and the Commanders, with the potential to lay the foundation for future success. With the starting QB job handed to Daniels we like his odds at +500 to be Rookie of the Year.

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NFL Free Bet | Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction | Aug 10th

#126 ASA FREE PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -6 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday at 7 PM ET

This line has jumped from Cincinnati -3 to -6 this week and for good reason.  The Bengals are approaching this preseason much differently than they have the last few years. 

Head Coach Zac Taylor has seen his team struggle early in the regular season after he decided to sit most of his starters the last few years in the preseason.  Last year Cincy lost 3 of their first 4 regular season games and in 2022 they started 0-2.  Taylor has decided to take a different approach and his starters will all play on Saturday, including QB Burrow.

Once Burrow exits, the Bengals will go with Jake Browning who started 7 games last year and threw for 2,000 yards.  Tampa will sit all of their starters in this game according to head coach Todd Bowles. 

The Bucs will start Kyle Trask under center (10 career pass attempts) so big advantage to the Bengals in this game at QB.  While the Tampa starters will sit this one out, Bowles mentioned all of the rookies will play and potentially a lot. 

Reading between the lines this week, it sounds as if Cincinnati wants to win this game after winning just 1 preseason game the last 2 years.  We’ll call for the Bengals to win by at least a TD at home on Saturday.      

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