Tag: NFL bets

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Cowboys vs Eagles | Sept 4 2025

ASAwins breaks down the Thursday Night NFL game and player prop bets – Cowboys vs Eagles

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb – OVER 6 Receptions

In 2023 the Cowboys threw the football 37.4 times per game, most in the NFL. Last season with Cooper Rush under center for 12 games (Prescott injured) they still attempted 37.5 per game. The Cowboys will struggle to run the football in this one so expect a 40+ drop backs for Prescott. Lamb should get plenty of opportunities in this game against the Eagles secondary, which is their defensive weakness. Lamb averaged over 10 targets last season and 6.7 receptions per game with a journeyman QB playing half the season.

Dallas Cowboy TE Jake Ferguson – OVER 3.5 Receptions

We know Dallas is going to throw the football a lot in this game and probably for the season. They lack a consistent running game and will rely on their passing attack with Prescott, Lamb and Pickens. The one guy that is going to benefit with the Pickens addition is Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is Prescott’s safety blanket or check down option when pressured. In 2023, Ferguson averaged 4.1 receptions per game and was targeted 102 total times. Last year he battled some injuries and played in just 14 games but still averaged 4.2 receptions per game.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley – OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts

In the two games against the Cowboys last year Barkley had just 14 carries in the first meeting, then 31 in the second. We expect this game to be much more like the second clash from a year ago. In 16 games last season Barkley averaged 21.5 carries per game and the Eagles led the league in rush attempts per game at 36.7. The Cowboy’s defense was run on last season 28.4 times per game which was the 21st highest number in the NFL. Dallas also gave up the 4th most rushing yards per game so you can bet the Eagles game plan will be a heavy dose of the ground game. 

Best of luck with all of your player prop bets for Thursday and be sure to check back daily for more betting insights.

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Will the Dogs be barking?

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Underdogs Continue to Dominate

By ASAwins

As the NFL season kicks off, bettors are diving into Week 1 with a wealth of historical data pointing to one clear trend: underdogs have been a goldmine in the opening week. Since 2016, underdogs in Week 1 have posted an impressive 78-62 record against the spread (ATS), translating to a 56% success rate and an 8% return on investment (ROI). This trend highlights the value of betting on teams overlooked by oddsmakers early in the season, when uncertainty about team performance is at its peak.

Road Dogs Pave the Way
Drilling down further, road underdogs have been even more profitable. Since 2016, Week 1 road dogs have gone 52-36 ATS, a 59% clip that delivers a robust 14% ROI. Teams playing away from home, often underestimated due to the perceived disadvantage, have consistently outperformed expectations in the season opener. Bettors looking for an edge might find road underdogs to be a key piece of their Week 1 strategy.

Teams That Missed the Playoffs Bounce Back
Another angle to consider is teams that missed the postseason in the previous year. These underdogs have a strong track record in Week 1, going 59-45 ATS (57%) since 2016, with a 10% ROI. Teams coming off a disappointing season often enter the new campaign with a chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous bets against the spread in the opening week.

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Divisional Dogs: A Hidden Gem
Divisional underdogs in Week 1 are a particularly hot commodity. Since 2016, these teams have gone 31-16 ATS, an eye-popping 66% success rate that yields a 26% ROI. Familiarity within divisions can level the playing field, and oddsmakers may overvalue favorites in these matchups, creating opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on underdogs.

Big Dogs Bark Loudest
For those willing to take on more risk, big underdogs—those getting 6.5 or more points—have been a revelation. Since 2016, these teams have posted a 25-12 ATS record in Week 1, a 68% success rate with a massive 31% ROI. These high-upside bets can pay off handsomely when oddsmakers overestimate the gap between teams early in the season.

Division Home Underdogs Hold Strong
While road dogs shine, don’t sleep on divisional home underdogs. Since 2010, Week 1 home underdogs playing within their division have gone 23-7 ATS, a remarkable 76.7% success rate. Playing in front of their own fans, these teams often defy expectations, making them a reliable option for bettors looking to back the underdog at home.

Conclusion
Week 1 of the NFL season is a bettor’s paradise, with underdogs consistently delivering value across multiple categories. Whether it’s road dogs, divisional underdogs, teams coming off a non-playoff season, or big dogs getting 6.5+ points, the data since 2016 points to a clear strategy: don’t be afraid to back the underdog. Add in the strong performance of home underdogs since 2010, and bettors have a wealth of angles to explore. As you finalize your Week 1 bets, keep these trends in mind—history shows the underdog often has its day in the NFL’s opening week.

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NFC East Betting Preview: Eagles Soar, Giants Stumble!

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NFC East Betting Prediction: Eagles Soar, Giants Stumble!

By Point Train Consulting

Welcome to the circus of NFC East predictions for the 2025 season, where drama outshines touchdowns and betting odds are as reliable as a weather forecast in a tornado.

Philadelphia Eagles: Leading the pack, the Philadelphia Eagles are set to dominate the East once again, finishing atop the division with 11 wins on the season—because why not keep the winning streak alive after a 14-3 masterpiece in 2024? With the second-best point differential in the NFL last year at +10.9 points per game, and an offense scoring a point every 12.6 yards (third-best in the league), the Eagles are back like a well-rested superhero. Jalen Hurts and crew face a much tougher schedule against 11 opponents that made the playoffs in 2024, so duplicating 14 wins is unlikely. Bet UNDER 11.5 wins (-130) – Bet to win the NFC East (-130).

Washington Redskins: In second place, the Washington Redskins Commanders (yes, still figuring out that name) slip slightly to a 9-8 record after a sneaky 12-win 2024. Last year’s +4.0 point differential per game was more luck than skill, and with a tougher schedule ahead, they won’t catch opponents napping this time. The betting line sits at +130 for the Commanders to finish 2nd in the NFC East, which is a consideration —but we are putting our money on QB Jayden Daniels to produce another stellar season. Bet Daniels over 5.5 TD’s (had 6 last year) and OVER 3,450.5 Passing yards (threw for 3,568 in 2024). Consider this, Daniels put up those numbers last season without fully knowing the playbook and he added Deebo Samuel to his arsenal.

Dallas Cowboy: Third in line, the Dallas Cowboys limp to another 7-10 finish, dragged down by a defense ranked 28th in yards allowed last season and gave up 27.5PPG. This Cow-poke team had a negative average point differential of -6.9PPG. QB Dak Prescott might sling the ball all over the field, but the backfield looks like a sieve with more holes than a block of Swiss cheese. Betting on Dallas to go over 7.5-wins  is like betting on a cowboy riding a unicycle—entertaining but doomed. Go for UNDER 8.5 wins (-145) and watch the chaos unfold in Big D.

New York Giants: Bringing up the rear, the New York Giants crawl to a 5-6 win season, a slight upgrade from their 3-win disaster of 2024. With a roster that’s more “hope” than “horsepower,” they’re the division’s lovable punching bag. This team was bottom five in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in 2024. At -165 odds (UNDER 6.5 wins) I’m not getting involved. If you are considering an Over bet, just remember, betting on the Giants is like betting on a turtle in a sprint—cute, but don’t hold your breath. They’ll keep us laughing with their predictable unpredictability as long as Brian Daboll is their coach. What exactly does Daboll have on ownership that they keep him with a 18-32-1 record with the Giants.

So, there you have it—your NFC East betting playbook! The Eagles’ soaring offense, Washington doesn’t sneak up on anyone, Dallas’s defensive debacle, and the Giants’ slow climb make this division a rollercoaster of laughs. Grab your popcorn, place your bets, and enjoy the show!

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NFC West Predictions | 49ers Rebound in 2025

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NFC West Betting Prediction: 49ers Rebound to Glory!

By Point Train Consulting

Welcome to the wild and wacky world of NFC West predictions for the 2025 season, where the only sure thing is that chaos will reign supreme.

After a rollercoaster 2024, the San Francisco 49ers are poised to reclaim their throne, finishing atop the division with a 10-7 record. Yes, you read that right—down from their 12-5 dominance in 2023 with a jaw-dropping +193 point differential, only to crash to a dismal 6-11 in 2024. What happened? Injuries, of course! Key players were sidelined more often than a substitute teacher in a rowdy classroom, turning their season into a medical drama. But fear not, bettors—the 49ers are back, healthy, and facing a schedule so easy it’s like playing against a bunch of high school JV teams. With Brock Purdy leading the charge and a roster ready to rebound, they’re the division’s golden ticket. Place your bets, folks—this is their year to rise from the ashes and win the NFC West at +150!

Trailing in second place, the Los Angeles Rams limp in at 8-9, thanks to the ever-pressing question mark hovering over quarterback Matthew Stafford’s creaky back. At 37, Stafford’s spine is starting to resemble an overcooked noodle, and the Rams’ front office is quietly rehearsing their “next man up” speeches. Will he throw for 4,000 yards or spend the season on the IR list? The betting line’s at +195, but good luck figuring out if he’ll be slinging touchdowns or ice packs. It’s a gamble worthy of a Vegas buffet—plenty of potential, but you might leave hungry. Rams bet UNDER 8.5 WINS

Third place goes to the Seattle Seahawks, scraping by with a 8-9 record as the football world holds its breath to see if Sam Darnold can replicate his Minnesota magic. After a Pro Bowl nod in 2024, Darnold’s move to Seattle comes with a shaky offensive line and a receiving corps that’s more “project” than “proven.” Will he channel his inner MVP, or will he revert to the Jets-era pumpkin we all remember? At -120 odds we like Darnold UNDER 3,400.5 passing yards. This is a bet for thrill-seekers who enjoy watching a quarterback dodge defenders like a deer in headlights.

Bringing up the rear, the Arizona Cardinals remain… well, the Arizona Cardinals, stumbling to a 6-11 finish. Kyler Murray’s still running circles (and occasionally into walls), but the team’s talent pool looks more like a kiddie splash zone than a deep end. With +150 odds (Under 7.5 Wins), betting on Arizona is like betting on a cactus to win a beauty pageant—possible in a surreal dream, but don’t hold your breath. They’re the division’s lovable underdog, destined to keep us entertained with their predictable unpredictability.

So, there you have it—your NFC West betting slip! The 49ers’ health-driven resurgence, Stafford’s spinal saga, Darnold’s Seattle experiment, and Arizona’s eternal “next year” promise make this NFC West race a comedy of errors. Grab your popcorn, place your bets, and enjoy the show!

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NFC North Shocking Predictions | Lions 2nd, who’s 1st? | 2025

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NFC NORTH SHOCKING PREDICTIONS

By Point Train Consultants

2025 NFC North Prediction: Bears Claw to Third, Leave Vikings in the Lutefisk

In a delightfully unhinged vision of the 2025 NFL season, the Chicago Bears storm to a third-place finish in the NFC North, slotting behind the juggernaut Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions but gleefully stomping the Minnesota Vikings into the division’s basement. Fueled by a revamped roster, a new coaching staff, and a sprinkle of Chicago-style bravado, the Bears make Soldier Field shake with a 9-8 record. Here’s how this absurdly plausible scenario unfolds, with a nod to the latest buzz and a heavy dose of deep-dish satire.

The Setup: Bears Reload with Chicago Swagger Coming off a 5-12 dumpster fire in 2024, the Bears’ front office went full Oprah, handing out upgrades like free cars. They lured Ben Johnson, Detroit’s former offensive mastermind, as head coach, turning Caleb Williams into a deep-dish-slinging QB savant. The offensive line, now featuring Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson, is sturdier than a Chicago hot dog cart in a windstorm. Defensively, Dennis Allen’s scheme has Montez Sweat and Jaquan Brisker playing like they’ve got a personal vendetta against every NFC North rival. Can this squad leapfrog the Vikings while trailing the Packers and Lions? In my universe, you bet your Italian beef they can.

The Prediction: NFC North

  • Green Bay Packers (1st Place): The Packers, led by Jordan Love’s golden arm and a defense stickier than a Wisconsin cheese curd, dominate with a 12-5 record. They go 4-2 in the division, only stumbling in a shocking Bears upset at Lambeau (Caleb Williams owns that field like it’s his Airbnb) and a Lions game where they forget how to tackle. Their +12 turnover margin from 2024 somehow improves, and they strut into the playoffs like they own the North. Love for MVP (yeah I’m not betting that), “He’s throwing so well, he could hit a deer from 50 yards.” Packers to win the NFC North (+225) Packers to win the NFC (+950)
  • Detroit Lions (2nd Place): The Lions, despite losing coordinators and some of Dan Campbell’s trademark grit, roar to a 10-7 record, a step back from their 15-2 dream in 2024. Their defense, once a brick wall, now leaks more yards than Lake Shore Drive traffic. The Bears steal a Week 18 thriller, with Ben Johnson outscheming his old team in a 27-24 upset that sends Chicago fans into a pizza-fueled frenzy. Detroit still snags a wild-card spot but won’t dominate the NFC regular season as they did a year ago. The Lions will need to outscore everyone so QB Goff could roar to another big passing season for the Lions. Goff OVER 3,900.5 passing yards (-110)
  • Chicago Bears (3rd Place): Here’s where it gets saucier than a Chicago-style hot dog. The Bears, powered by Caleb Williams’ Year 2 leap (4,100 yards, 29 TDs, and a grin that screams “I’m not Mitch Trubisky”), finish 9-8. The O-line, beefier than a Portillo’s beef sandwich, keeps Williams clean, while Montez Sweat’s defense racks up 25 takeaways. A brutal schedule—facing powerhouses like Philadelphia, San Francisco, and Kansas City—keeps them out of the playoffs, until next year (I haven’t heard that before). Key additions like Luther Burden III (via trade) give Williams a toybox that would make Al Capone jealous.. Bears Finish 9-8, Third in the NFC North (Bet Over 8.5 wins)
  • Minnesota Vikings (4th Place): The Vikings, fresh off a 14-3 fluke in 2024, crash back to earth with rookie QB J.J. McCarthy learns the NFL isn’t Michigan. Brian Flores’ defense keeps games close, but McCarthy’s 18 interceptions (worst in the league) and a fading turnover luck (+12 in 2024, now -5) doom them. Justin Jefferson hauls in 1,100 yards but can’t save Minnesota from a late-season collapse. The Vikings front office thought McCarthy was the next Brady, but he’s closer to Speergon Wynn. Vikings WR Justin Jefferson UNDER 1,250 receiving yards (+100)

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