Tag: NFL bets

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NFL Free Bet today | Titans vs Texans Prediction | Sept 28 2025

#263 ASA NFL FREE today on: Tennessee Titans +7.5 over Houston Texans, Sunday at 1 PM ET

Really tough ask for Houston to win this rivalry game by more than a TD when they simply struggle to score points. 

The Texans rank dead last in the NFL in scoring averaging 12.7 PPG putting up 9, 10 and 19 points in their 3 games this season.  The Texans are 0-3 ATS losing by an average of 4 PPG to the number. 

Tennessee hasn’t been great offensively but they have scored at least 19 points in 2 of their 3 games and that should get it done here.  In those 2 games the Titans faced the LA Rams and Indianapolis, 2 of the  top 5 offenses in the NFL, and couldn’t keep up despite scoring 19 and 20 points. 

That shouldn’t be a case here facing a Houston team that is averaging just 267 YPG (29th), ranks dead last in 3rd down conversion rate at 24% and scores only 1 point for every 21 yards gained (31st). 

This AFC South rivalry has been closely contested with 9 of the last 10 decided by single digits and the dog has covered 7 of the last 9. 

If we can get 2 TD’s from Tennessee, that just might be enough to get this cover in what is expected to be a low scoring game (lowest total on the board at 39)  Take the points with the Titans as ASA’s NFL free bet today.   

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NFL free picks today | Panthers vs Cardinals | Sept 14 2025

ASAwins NFL Free play UNDER 18.5 Team Total Panthers

Carolina takes on the Cardinals today in Arizona and we don’t see this offense putting up many points in the desert heat. The Panthers offense averaged just 4.2 yards per play, had 255 total yards last week and 10-points against the Jaguars. Last season the Panthers averaged 20.1ppg but they had 9 of 17 games with 17 or less points in regulation. Arizona is going to be better defensively this season and haven’t forgotten the 36-points the allowed to Carolina late in the season a year ago in a 30-36 OT loss. The Cards allowed 22.3ppg in 2024, which is obviously higher than this O/U, but they also held 7 opponents to 17 or less points a year ago. Unless there is a defensive or special teams TD by the Panthers, we don’t see them getting Over 18 in this one.

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NFL player prop bets | Commanders vs Packers | Sept 11 2025

Enjoy a couple of NFL player prop bets for Thursday, September 11th from ASA. Watch weekly for free prop bets and other wagering opportunities from all of the experts here at ASAwins.com

Commanders WR Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+110)

In his debut with the Commanders, Samuel caught 7 of 10 targets for 77 yards. He led the team with a 36% first-read rate (per Fantasy Points Data), indicating he was Daniels’ primary target on over a third of his dropbacks. Additionally, 40% of his targets (4 catches) came behind the line of scrimmage, including two screen passes (per PFF). In Week 1, the Packers’ defense forced Detroit’s Jared Goff into quick, short throws, resulting in a league-low 4.2 average depth of target (ADOT). This aligns perfectly with Samuel’s usage, as his 2.48 yards per route run and 83.8% route participation rate (per Sharp Football Analysis). The Commanders are likely to lean on the pass, with opposing quarterbacks averaging 33.9 pass attempts per game against Green Bay since last season (9th-most in the NFL). Samuel’s projected 7.1 targets rank in the 79th percentile among wide receivers (per EV Analytics). Samuel also thrives against the Packers’ defensive schemes. Since last season, Green Bay has primarily used Cover 2 and Cover 3 coverages. Samuel’s 2024-2025 stats against these coverages are stellar: 20 catches on 26 targets in 129 routes against Cover 3, and 9 catches on 13 targets in 67 routes against Cover 2 (per Sharp Football Analysis). His most common routes—crossers and hitches—have yielded high completion rates against Green Bay, with 83.3% (45/54) on crossers and 82.5% (94/114) on hitches since last season.

Packers WR Matthew Golden Under 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

In the Packers’ Week 1 win over the Lions, Golden, a rookie first-round pick, ran routes on just 58% of Green Bay’s dropbacks, earning only 2 targets for a 9% target share (per Fantasy Points Data). He finished with 1 catch for 12 yards, underscoring his limited role in a crowded receiver room. Green Bay’s run-heavy approach was evident, with 54% of offensive snaps being run plays and only 22 dropbacks from Jordan Love, who spreads the ball among multiple pass-catchers, including Jayden Reed (55 receptions, 857 yards in 2024), Romeo Doubs (46 receptions, 601 yards), and Christian Watson (29 receptions, 620 yards).

The Commanders’ secondary allowed only a 60.7% catch rate to wide receivers in 2024, ranking 10th in the NFL (per ESPN). Against Cover 3 schemes, which Washington used on 38% of snaps last season, Golden’s college stats at Texas show modest production: 12 catches on 20 targets for 148 yards across 2024 (per Sports Info Solutions).

With a projected target volume of 2.5-3 (EV Analytics), Golden would need an unusually high yards-per-catch average (12.3+ YPC) to exceed 30.5 yards, unlikely given Washington’s 5.6 yards per target allowed to wide receivers since 2024.

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NFL Prop Bets | MNF Vikings vs Bears | Sep 8 2025

Caleb Williams Player Prop Bet: Over 4.5 Rush Attempts (-115) vs. Vikings

In 2024, Caleb Williams was the most sacked quarterback in the NFL, taking 68 sacks across 17 games. His mobility was a necessity, as he scrambled or ran on designed plays frequently, finishing with 489 rushing yards on 81 attempts (6.0 yards per carry). Notably, Williams had 4+ carries in 14 of 19 games and averaged 4.8 per for the season, including 10 carries in each of his two matchups against the Vikings last season. These games highlight his tendency to run when pressured by Minnesota’s defense, which led the NFL in quarterback pressures in 2024.

Aaron Jones Player Prop Bet: Over 2.5 Receptions (-110) vs. Bears

In 2024, Aaron Jones recorded 51 receptions on 67 targets over 17 games, averaging 3.0 receptions per game with the Vikings. He surpassed 2.5 receptions in 12 of 17 games, showcasing his reliability as a pass-catching back. Facing the Bears in 2024, Jones had 4 receptions for 46 yards in Week 12 and 3 receptions for 28 yards in Week 14, clearing the 2.5 mark in both games. With McCarthy, a rookie, starting under center, expect head coach Kevin O’Connell to lean on short, safe check-downs to Jones to ease the quarterback into the game. Minnesota’s offense in 2024 ranked 7th in passing yards (4,123), and Jones was a key outlet, with a 7.6% target share in the passing game.

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