Tag: college predictions

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College Football free wager – Nov 5th

ASA PLAY ON #392 UL Lafayette +4.5 over Troy, Saturday 5 PM ET

College Football free wager: We think we’re getting some solid value here with the home dog.  Last year ULL was favored by -6.5 AT Troy and now this year they are getting +4.5 at home.  So technically we’re talking about at least a 17 point swing in one year if we factor in home field advantage.  That’s too much.  ULL is coming off a loss which helped this line, however it was a deceiving loss @ Southern Miss.  The Golden Eagles won 39-24 vs ULL who was favored by -2.5 on the road in that game.  The Ragin Cajuns outgained USM by 100 yards in that loss but had 4 turnovers and the Eagles had a defensive TD and a safety in the game.  Prior to that loss ULL was coming off back to back double digit wins vs Arkansas State and Marshall.  At home this season the Cajuns are 3-1 with their only loss coming by 3 points vs a South Alabama who we have rated dead even with Troy.  The Trojans are on a nice 5 game winning streak, however they struggle offensively at times (76th in total offense and 120th in rushing) so they often win close games when they do win.  In that 5 game winning streak they have scored 17 points or fewer 3 times and 4 of those 5 winning margins were single digits.  If we throw out Troy’s game vs FCS Alabama A&M their average score this season is 20.2 – 17.7 so only +2.5 PPG.  ULL has an extremely strong home field advantage winning 22 of their last 25 as a host dating back to the 2018 season.  Troy hasn’t laid points on the road in this series since 2011 and we feel the Cajuns have a solid shot at the upset here as our free pick.  Take the points with ULL as our free pick today.

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Free college bet Utah vs USC – Oct 15th

Free college prediction on the Utah vs USC game by ASA

ASA play on: Utah -3.5 vs USC, 8PM ET

ASA’s free college bet. We like the scheduling situation with the Utes are coming off a disappointing loss at UCLA 42-32 while USC is off a big home win over Washington State 30-14. Both offenses fairly even with the Utes averaging 6.6-Yards Per Play, USC averages 6.6YPP. Utah has a slight edge defensively as the UTES give up 316YPG compared to the Trojans 351.5YPG allowed. A big reason USC is 6-0 SU is that they have feasted on Turnovers this year with 15 takeaways, but Utah doesn’t turn it Over with 5 TO’s on the season. Utah also has an offense capable of keeping the Trojans offense off the field as they convert 48.48% of their 3rd down attempts which is 16th best in the nation. Home field will play an important role in the outcome of this game as the Utes are 23-2 SU, 16-9 ATS at home since 2018. In that stretch of 25 games, they have won by an average of 20.8PPG which is the 11th best MOV in that time frame. The home team is also 8-3 the last eleven meetings between these two schools. The Trojans have not been a great underdog with as 5-9 ATS their last fourteen as a pooch. They’ve also lost those games by an average of -11.1PPG. The line on this game is the tell with the Utes favored by over as field goal. Since 2015 teams that are 6-0 and an underdog to a team with a minimum of two losses are 3-12 SU. Free college prediction on the Utes!

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FREE college football bet | Sept 25

POINT TRAIN WAGER – #376 OREGON STATE +6 vs. USC @ 9:30PM ET

WAGER – OREGON STATE +6

  • Free college fotball – This is one of those games I keep going back to for one specific reason. The line on this game opened with USC a touchdown favorite and more money/tickets are being bet on the Trojans, yet the line moved off that key number.
  • My computers have USC as a 4.2-point favorite on a neutral field so you can see for yourself this number is slightly inflated.
  • Both have played Fresno State this season and won. OSU went to Fresno and won 35-32 as a 1-point dog. USC hosted the Bulldogs last week and won 45-17.
  • Oregon State was a 10-point road dog a year ago in So Cal and won 45-27 with a plus +109-yards differential.
  • USC is loaded on offense with some high-profile transfers but the Beavers aren’t far behind with an offense putting up 45.7PPG and averaging 12.6-Yards Per Point.
  • Defensively the Beavers were slightly better a year ago and the two units are about even this season.
  • There is value with the home dog in this one.
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Akron vs Miami OH prediction – ASA – Feb 12

ASA free pick Friday – #863 Akron -4 @ Miami OH, 7PM ET – Akron looks to keep pace with Toledo who leads the MAC as of this writing with an 11-2 overall record with Akron right behind them at 9-3. Miami OH is currently 6th and fading fast with a 1-3 SU record their last four games with the only win coming against 4-11 overall Western Michigan. The Redhawks own a negative scoring differential of minus -9.2PPG in that four-game stretch. The Zips come into this contest on a 5 game winning streak with a +12PPG scoring differential average in those five contests. They’ve held their last five opponents to just 40.8% shooting. Akron has one of the best players in the MAC on their roster in Loren Christian Jackson who is averaging 21.3PPG and 6.6APG. The Zips should score at will here against a Redhawks team that is 9th in the conference in defensive efficiency allowing 1.091PPP and 9th in EFG% defense allowing 54.1%. Akron ranks in the top five offensively is the same categories and have the second-best defensive efficiency rating and EFG% defense. Toledo was favored by 4-points on this floor earlier this season and won by 9-points. The Rockets though were covering the spread in that game for 90% of the minutes played. We will lean towards the Zips in this game and predict a 7-10-point win.

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