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Bold NHL Predictions: Play: Stars Over, Leafs Under, Knights Cup Run

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ASA’s NHL Predictions 2025: Play: Stars Over, Leafs Under, Knights Cup Run

The Picks: Dallas Stars Over 51.5 wins (+100), Toronto Maple Leafs Under 46.5 wins (-110), and Vegas Golden Knights to win 2025-26 Stanley Cup (+900).

Dallas crushed it in 2024-25 despite chaos—50 wins and 106 points even after dropping their final seven games, with key injuries sidelining Tyler Seguin and Miro Heiskanen for chunks of the season. They still ranked 3rd league-wide in goals for (275) and 6th in goals against (222), boasting a +53 differential. Full health plus Mikko Rantanen (projected 88+ points) and new (old) coach Glen Gulutzan returning for his 2nd stint with Dallas? Easy push to 53+ wins in a winnable Central.

Toronto’s core sparkled offensively last year (7th in GF at 267), but losing Mitch Marner craters their top-six production—his 102+ point pace leaves a gaping hole, especially with defensive lapses persisting (8th in GA at 229). Coach Craig Berube in his 2nd season stabilizes, but without Marner’s playmaking, expect regression to 44 wins max in a shark tank Atlantic.

Vegas reloaded masterfully, snagging Marner (741 points since ’16-17) to pair with Jack Eichel’s rising star power, offsetting 2024-25’s injury-riddled second-round exit (despite a 4-2 first-round W). Offensively this team was 4th in total shots on goal, 5th in goals scored and 2nd in power play percentage. Their defense (led by Shea Theodore – 3RD in GA 214) and depth scream contender—+900 is steal value for a proven Cup squad (2023 champs) primed for a deep Pacific run. Fade the doubters; Knights hoist it in June.

The NHL starts Tuesday, October 7th – get your action in before the puck drops.

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Will the Dogs be barking?

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NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Underdogs Continue to Dominate

By ASAwins

As the NFL season kicks off, bettors are diving into Week 1 with a wealth of historical data pointing to one clear trend: underdogs have been a goldmine in the opening week. Since 2016, underdogs in Week 1 have posted an impressive 78-62 record against the spread (ATS), translating to a 56% success rate and an 8% return on investment (ROI). This trend highlights the value of betting on teams overlooked by oddsmakers early in the season, when uncertainty about team performance is at its peak.

Road Dogs Pave the Way
Drilling down further, road underdogs have been even more profitable. Since 2016, Week 1 road dogs have gone 52-36 ATS, a 59% clip that delivers a robust 14% ROI. Teams playing away from home, often underestimated due to the perceived disadvantage, have consistently outperformed expectations in the season opener. Bettors looking for an edge might find road underdogs to be a key piece of their Week 1 strategy.

Teams That Missed the Playoffs Bounce Back
Another angle to consider is teams that missed the postseason in the previous year. These underdogs have a strong track record in Week 1, going 59-45 ATS (57%) since 2016, with a 10% ROI. Teams coming off a disappointing season often enter the new campaign with a chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous bets against the spread in the opening week.

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Divisional Dogs: A Hidden Gem
Divisional underdogs in Week 1 are a particularly hot commodity. Since 2016, these teams have gone 31-16 ATS, an eye-popping 66% success rate that yields a 26% ROI. Familiarity within divisions can level the playing field, and oddsmakers may overvalue favorites in these matchups, creating opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on underdogs.

Big Dogs Bark Loudest
For those willing to take on more risk, big underdogs—those getting 6.5 or more points—have been a revelation. Since 2016, these teams have posted a 25-12 ATS record in Week 1, a 68% success rate with a massive 31% ROI. These high-upside bets can pay off handsomely when oddsmakers overestimate the gap between teams early in the season.

Division Home Underdogs Hold Strong
While road dogs shine, don’t sleep on divisional home underdogs. Since 2010, Week 1 home underdogs playing within their division have gone 23-7 ATS, a remarkable 76.7% success rate. Playing in front of their own fans, these teams often defy expectations, making them a reliable option for bettors looking to back the underdog at home.

Conclusion
Week 1 of the NFL season is a bettor’s paradise, with underdogs consistently delivering value across multiple categories. Whether it’s road dogs, divisional underdogs, teams coming off a non-playoff season, or big dogs getting 6.5+ points, the data since 2016 points to a clear strategy: don’t be afraid to back the underdog. Add in the strong performance of home underdogs since 2010, and bettors have a wealth of angles to explore. As you finalize your Week 1 bets, keep these trends in mind—history shows the underdog often has its day in the NFL’s opening week.

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