Tag: best NBA bets

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NBA Player Prop Bet | Khris Middleton | Oct 22 2025

ASA’s NBA PLAYER PROP BET:

OVER 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists – Khris Middleton Washington Wizards

K-Midd returns to Milwaukee tonight to face his former mates and the team he played for 12 seasons. Middleton looked healthy in the preseason playing 20+ minutes in two games and he is tabbed a starter tonight for the Wiz. His usage should be 30+ minutes in this game with projected numbers of: 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Washington was the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago which means plenty of possession in this game against the Bucks, who were only slightly better than league average in Defensive Efficiency a year ago.

We expect a big game out of Middleton in his return to Milwaukee.

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NBA Free pick | Rockets vs Thunder | Oct 21 2025

ASAwins NBA Free play on UNDER 227.5 Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET

The public has jumped on the OVER in this game but the handle is on UNDER. We like what the betting market is saying about this game and will put our money on a low scoring affair. Obviously that is not the only reason we like this game UNDER as our math model is projecting 224.3 total points. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA defensively during the regular season a year ago allowing just 1.075 points per possession. The Rockets were 4th best in that stat category allowing 1.107PPP. OKC was 6th in pace of play, but the Rockers were 17th. The Thunder were one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA a year ago, the Rockets were 13th. Houston made a huge trade in the offseason and brought in Kevin Durant but had to give up Jalen Green in the deal. The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet for the season who was 3rd in scoring at 14.1ppg and led the team in assists. This team is going to be a match up nightmare for teams as they start 6’7 Amen Thompson then have four players all over 6’11. OKC is the defending Champ and odds on favorite to win it all again. They will however be without second leading scorer Jalen Williams for this game and could be missing Alex Caruso who was banged up in the preseason. We expect both offenses to be slightly behind the defenses to start the season and predict a game below 224. 

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NBA WIN TOTAL BETS | 2025-26 FUTURES

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NBA SEASON LONG WIN TOTAL BETS

LA CLIPPERS OVER 49.5 WINS (-120) – The Clippers are going to be better this season than they were a year ago when they won 50 games. They lost Norman Powell to the Heat but added Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. They also get a full year with John Collins in the lineup after trading for him midway through the season last year. The health of aging Kahwi Leonard is always a concern but this deep roster can overcome load management games with some of the vets resting nights. Los Angeles was 6th in average margin of victory last season at +4.7PPG and had the 5th best Efficiency Differential at +4.8. 

MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 43.5 WINS (+100) – The one caveat that could derail this season long win total bet is if Giannis Antetokounmpo demands a trade mid-season. The Bucks added a few key pieces in the offseason with Miles Turner, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris along with bringing back Thanasis Antetokounmpo (to appease Giannis). Milwaukee had the 11th best Efficiency Differential in the NBA a year ago at +2.4 and won 48 games. The Eastern Conference is going to be down this season with Super Star players Jayson Tatum (Celtics) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) sidelined. The Bucks have won 44+ games every season dating back to the 2017-18 season. Giannis was a top 3 player last season in Value Index and Usage percentage. If he stays…the Bucks win 50.

TORONTO RAPTORS OVER 39.5 WINS (-110) – The Raptors had the 9th most missed games due to injuries last season and still managed to win 30 games. If this team can remain healthy we like them to get to 40+ wins and make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed. The starting lineup of Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl is solid. Ingram and Barnes are All-Star caliber players capable of averaging 22+ points per game. 

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 47.5 WINS (-122) – The Warriors are obviously a public team and their win total reflects a bump of a few wins making them a value UNDER team. Father time is undefeated and Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Al Horford aren’t getting any younger. This team was still elite defensively a year ago with the 7th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the regular season, but their offense was average (15th in OEFF). The Warriors won 48 games a year ago but it’s going to be tough to get to that number with this aging roster. And let’s face it, Golden State isn’t concerned about winning the division or the Western Conference, they want to be fresh come playoff time and just have a seat at the table.

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NBA Championship Bet | Nuggets +700 | 2025-26

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ASA NBA Future Bet: Nuggets at +700: A Championship Steal with Upgraded Depth and Defense

The Denver Nuggets sit at +700 odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship (implied probability ~12.5%), offering solid value for a team that’s reloaded around Nikola Jokić after a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the Thunder in the 2024-25 Western Conference Semifinals. 

Fresh off a 50-32 regular season that secured the No. 4 seed, Denver’s elite offense—ranking 4th in offensive efficiency (OEFF) last year at 116.3 points per 100 possessions—remains one of the league’s best, but their defensive woes (22nd in defensive efficiency, DEFF, at 114.5) needed improvement. Fast-forward to the offseason: the Nuggets aggressively addressed depth and perimeter D, transforming a top-heavy roster into a balanced contender poised for another title run.

In the 2023-24 championship season, they finished 5th in OEFF and 8th in DEFF. Last year’s defensive drop-off correlated with thin bench minutes, but new additions flip the script. Trading Michael Porter Jr. (a high-usage scorer plagued by inconsistency – not a great defender) to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson nets a defensive upgrade—Johnson posted a career-best 18.8 PPG in 2024-25 while ranking in the 85th percentile for defensive versatility, per NBA Advanced Stats, adding switchable wings to clog passing lanes.

Re-signing Bruce Brown (the 2023 Finals X-factor) brings back gritty two-way play, while signing Tim Hardaway Jr. (fresh off a stint with Detroit) injects 40% three-point shooting (on 5.5 attempts per game last season) to stretch floors and punish help defense. Swapping Dario Šarić for Jonas Valančiūnas from Sacramento provides Jokić his best backup big ever—a rebounding machine (9.3 RPG for his career) who can anchor the paint with Jokic on the bench. These moves boost bench net rating by an estimated +4.2 points per 100 possessions (via Cleaning the Glass projections), directly targeting last year’s -3.1 non-Jokić minutes.

With Jokić entering his prime (projected for another MVP-caliber 26-12-9 line) and a healthier Jamal Murray, Denver’s now built for playoff grind. At +700, they’re undervalued and a solid bet  to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy and pocket that sweet payout.

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NBA Playoffs Free Bet | May 7th 2024

ASA free NBA Playoffs bet UNDER 112 1ST HALF POINTS – Mavericks at Thunder, 9:30PM ET

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Both teams have favored the Under in the 1st halves of games in the Playoffs with Dallas staying Under in 4 of six games against the Clippers, the Thunder played Under in 3 of four vs. the Pelicans.

We can throw out the regular season 1st half totals between these two teams based on injuries and situations. The Mavericks defense has been significantly better down the stretch of the regular season and were much better against the Clippers.

Dallas has a defensive Net rating of 109.5 in the post season which is the 6th best number in the league. The team that has the best defensive Net rating in the Playoffs is OKC at 93.5. The Thunder held the Pelicans to 92, 92, 85 and 89 points in the opening round series.

Dallas is also the 4th slowest paced team in the playoffs at 92 possessions per game. Granted, the Thunder are the 2nd fastest at 95.88 but that number is considerably lower than their regular season possessions per game of 100.5. The value lies with an Under bet in the 1st half of this Game 1.  

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