Tag: ASAwins

Posted on by

NFL Player Prop picks | Chargers vs Chiefs | Sept 5 2025

ASA Breaks down NFL Player Prop bets on the AFC West showdown between the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs game, Friday September 5t. Hook these three into 2-team player prop parlays on your fantasy betting sites. Watch for more winning NFL player prop bets weekly.

LA CHARGERS vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – PLAYER PROP BETS

1. Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) – OVER 9.5 Receiving Yards
Pacheco, Kansas City’s dynamic RB, is a solid bet to exceed 9.5 receiving yards. In 2024, he averaged 15.2 receiving yards per game, catching 37 passes for 259 yards across 17 games. With Rashee Rice suspended for six games, the Chiefs will lean on Pacheco’s versatility in the passing game, especially on check-downs and screens. Patrick Mahomes targeted RBs on 18% of his throws last season, and Pacheco’s 7.0 yards per catch make this a low bar to clear. Bet: OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-110).

2. Justin Herbert (Chargers) – UNDER 21.5 Passing Completions
Herbert’s arm is elite, but the Chargers’ run-heavy scheme under Jim Harbaugh and a thin WR corps make the UNDER 21.5 completions appealing. In 2024, Herbert averaged 20.8 completions per game (354 completions over 17 games) on 34.1 attempts, with a 60.8% completion rate. The loss of key defensive personnel could lead to game scripts favoring the run, and rookie RB Omarion Hampton’s addition supports a ground-focused approach. Bet: UNDER 21.5 completions (-105).

3. Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) – OVER 0.5 Interceptions
Mahomes is a wizard, but the OVER 0.5 interceptions is a sneaky play. In 2024, he threw 11 interceptions across 17 games (0.65 per game), with a tougher 2025 schedule (Eagles, Bills) likely forcing riskier throws. Without Rashee Rice early, Mahomes may press, targeting less reliable options like Xavier Worthy. His 2.1% interception rate last season supports this prop, especially against aggressive defenses. Bet: OVER 0.5 interceptions (+120).

On sale products

BETTING INFORMATION

Posted on by

NFL Player Prop Bets | Cowboys vs Eagles | Sept 4 2025

ASAwins breaks down the Thursday Night NFL game and player prop bets – Cowboys vs Eagles

Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb – OVER 6 Receptions

In 2023 the Cowboys threw the football 37.4 times per game, most in the NFL. Last season with Cooper Rush under center for 12 games (Prescott injured) they still attempted 37.5 per game. The Cowboys will struggle to run the football in this one so expect a 40+ drop backs for Prescott. Lamb should get plenty of opportunities in this game against the Eagles secondary, which is their defensive weakness. Lamb averaged over 10 targets last season and 6.7 receptions per game with a journeyman QB playing half the season.

Dallas Cowboy TE Jake Ferguson – OVER 3.5 Receptions

We know Dallas is going to throw the football a lot in this game and probably for the season. They lack a consistent running game and will rely on their passing attack with Prescott, Lamb and Pickens. The one guy that is going to benefit with the Pickens addition is Jake Ferguson. Ferguson is Prescott’s safety blanket or check down option when pressured. In 2023, Ferguson averaged 4.1 receptions per game and was targeted 102 total times. Last year he battled some injuries and played in just 14 games but still averaged 4.2 receptions per game.

Philadelphia Eagles RB Saquon Barkley – OVER 18.5 Rush Attempts

In the two games against the Cowboys last year Barkley had just 14 carries in the first meeting, then 31 in the second. We expect this game to be much more like the second clash from a year ago. In 16 games last season Barkley averaged 21.5 carries per game and the Eagles led the league in rush attempts per game at 36.7. The Cowboy’s defense was run on last season 28.4 times per game which was the 21st highest number in the NFL. Dallas also gave up the 4th most rushing yards per game so you can bet the Eagles game plan will be a heavy dose of the ground game. 

Best of luck with all of your player prop bets for Thursday and be sure to check back daily for more betting insights.

On sale products

BETTING FREE PICKS

Posted on by

NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Will the Dogs be barking?

sportsbookfans

NFL Week 1 Betting Trends: Underdogs Continue to Dominate

By ASAwins

As the NFL season kicks off, bettors are diving into Week 1 with a wealth of historical data pointing to one clear trend: underdogs have been a goldmine in the opening week. Since 2016, underdogs in Week 1 have posted an impressive 78-62 record against the spread (ATS), translating to a 56% success rate and an 8% return on investment (ROI). This trend highlights the value of betting on teams overlooked by oddsmakers early in the season, when uncertainty about team performance is at its peak.

Road Dogs Pave the Way
Drilling down further, road underdogs have been even more profitable. Since 2016, Week 1 road dogs have gone 52-36 ATS, a 59% clip that delivers a robust 14% ROI. Teams playing away from home, often underestimated due to the perceived disadvantage, have consistently outperformed expectations in the season opener. Bettors looking for an edge might find road underdogs to be a key piece of their Week 1 strategy.

Teams That Missed the Playoffs Bounce Back
Another angle to consider is teams that missed the postseason in the previous year. These underdogs have a strong track record in Week 1, going 59-45 ATS (57%) since 2016, with a 10% ROI. Teams coming off a disappointing season often enter the new campaign with a chip on their shoulder, making them dangerous bets against the spread in the opening week.

Get ready to beat the Books this season

Handicapping professionally since the late 1980’s! Trusted by sports bettors for decades! You won’t find many experts with more experience in the sports betting industry. We will deliver the winning action to you via email and text messaging to make things as simple and easy as possible. Pick up a package that best suits your needs this football season.

Button

Divisional Dogs: A Hidden Gem
Divisional underdogs in Week 1 are a particularly hot commodity. Since 2016, these teams have gone 31-16 ATS, an eye-popping 66% success rate that yields a 26% ROI. Familiarity within divisions can level the playing field, and oddsmakers may overvalue favorites in these matchups, creating opportunities for savvy bettors to capitalize on underdogs.

Big Dogs Bark Loudest
For those willing to take on more risk, big underdogs—those getting 6.5 or more points—have been a revelation. Since 2016, these teams have posted a 25-12 ATS record in Week 1, a 68% success rate with a massive 31% ROI. These high-upside bets can pay off handsomely when oddsmakers overestimate the gap between teams early in the season.

Division Home Underdogs Hold Strong
While road dogs shine, don’t sleep on divisional home underdogs. Since 2010, Week 1 home underdogs playing within their division have gone 23-7 ATS, a remarkable 76.7% success rate. Playing in front of their own fans, these teams often defy expectations, making them a reliable option for bettors looking to back the underdog at home.

Conclusion
Week 1 of the NFL season is a bettor’s paradise, with underdogs consistently delivering value across multiple categories. Whether it’s road dogs, divisional underdogs, teams coming off a non-playoff season, or big dogs getting 6.5+ points, the data since 2016 points to a clear strategy: don’t be afraid to back the underdog. Add in the strong performance of home underdogs since 2010, and bettors have a wealth of angles to explore. As you finalize your Week 1 bets, keep these trends in mind—history shows the underdog often has its day in the NFL’s opening week.

On sale products

BETTING NEWS

Posted on by

ACC Win Total Prediction | Duke Blue Devils | 2025

duketotalwins

ASA’s ACC FOOTBALL WIN TOTAL PREDICTION – 2025

Duke Blue Devils OVER 6.5 Wins

The Blue Devils finished last season with a 9-3 regular season record and one of those losses came in OT vs SMU.  While we do not expect them to reach 9 wins again this season, their total is set at 6.5 which is too low in our opinion. 

They lose starting QB Murphy, who is now at Oregon State, however the Devils have added one of the top freshman QB’s in the nation from last season.  Their new signal caller, Mensah, started for Tulane last season who threw for 2,700 yards and 22 TD’s for the Green Wave in 2024. 

He’ll operate behind a very good offensive line with 4 starters back and the 5th spot being filled by an experienced transfer. 

Defensively they should be strong in the trenches as well with some key starters back from a team that finished #2 nationally in tackles for loss and #4 nationally in sacks per game.  Head coach Manny Diaz is one of the better defensive minds around so we expect them to be solid on that side of the ball once again this season. 

Speaking of Diaz, he’s done well with the continuity on his coaching staff returning both their offensive and defensive coordinator. 

Our power ratings have Duke favored in 8 games this season and the only game we have them a dog of more than 4 points is @ Clemson.  The Devils also avoid 2 of the top 4 teams in the ACC as they miss Miami FL and SMU in conference play. 

We’ll call for the Blue Devils to get to at least 7 wins.   

On sale products

Betting News

Posted on by

NFC East Betting Preview: Eagles Soar, Giants Stumble!

nfc east preview 2025

NFC East Betting Prediction: Eagles Soar, Giants Stumble!

By Point Train Consulting

Welcome to the circus of NFC East predictions for the 2025 season, where drama outshines touchdowns and betting odds are as reliable as a weather forecast in a tornado.

Philadelphia Eagles: Leading the pack, the Philadelphia Eagles are set to dominate the East once again, finishing atop the division with 11 wins on the season—because why not keep the winning streak alive after a 14-3 masterpiece in 2024? With the second-best point differential in the NFL last year at +10.9 points per game, and an offense scoring a point every 12.6 yards (third-best in the league), the Eagles are back like a well-rested superhero. Jalen Hurts and crew face a much tougher schedule against 11 opponents that made the playoffs in 2024, so duplicating 14 wins is unlikely. Bet UNDER 11.5 wins (-130) – Bet to win the NFC East (-130).

Washington Redskins: In second place, the Washington Redskins Commanders (yes, still figuring out that name) slip slightly to a 9-8 record after a sneaky 12-win 2024. Last year’s +4.0 point differential per game was more luck than skill, and with a tougher schedule ahead, they won’t catch opponents napping this time. The betting line sits at +130 for the Commanders to finish 2nd in the NFC East, which is a consideration —but we are putting our money on QB Jayden Daniels to produce another stellar season. Bet Daniels over 5.5 TD’s (had 6 last year) and OVER 3,450.5 Passing yards (threw for 3,568 in 2024). Consider this, Daniels put up those numbers last season without fully knowing the playbook and he added Deebo Samuel to his arsenal.

Dallas Cowboy: Third in line, the Dallas Cowboys limp to another 7-10 finish, dragged down by a defense ranked 28th in yards allowed last season and gave up 27.5PPG. This Cow-poke team had a negative average point differential of -6.9PPG. QB Dak Prescott might sling the ball all over the field, but the backfield looks like a sieve with more holes than a block of Swiss cheese. Betting on Dallas to go over 7.5-wins  is like betting on a cowboy riding a unicycle—entertaining but doomed. Go for UNDER 8.5 wins (-145) and watch the chaos unfold in Big D.

New York Giants: Bringing up the rear, the New York Giants crawl to a 5-6 win season, a slight upgrade from their 3-win disaster of 2024. With a roster that’s more “hope” than “horsepower,” they’re the division’s lovable punching bag. This team was bottom five in both offensive and defensive efficiency ratings in 2024. At -165 odds (UNDER 6.5 wins) I’m not getting involved. If you are considering an Over bet, just remember, betting on the Giants is like betting on a turtle in a sprint—cute, but don’t hold your breath. They’ll keep us laughing with their predictable unpredictability as long as Brian Daboll is their coach. What exactly does Daboll have on ownership that they keep him with a 18-32-1 record with the Giants.

So, there you have it—your NFC East betting playbook! The Eagles’ soaring offense, Washington doesn’t sneak up on anyone, Dallas’s defensive debacle, and the Giants’ slow climb make this division a rollercoaster of laughs. Grab your popcorn, place your bets, and enjoy the show!

We would love for you to give us a shot this football season and show you what Point Train is all about. To show our appreciation we will give you a $20 discount code to use on our September package. Add our September package to your cart, enter the coupon code: PT20Sept, hit apply and checkout. This coupon code will expire on September 1st 2025.

On sale products

BETS THAT WIN FOR YOU!