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NFL FREE BET | OCT 1st 2023

ASA’S FREE NFL BET – OVER 46.5 DENVER BRONCOS AT CHICAGO BEARS, 1PM ET

Two terrible defenses going at it in this one will give both offenses plenty of opportunities. Denver ranks last in YPP allowed at over 7.0 and Chicago ranks 30th giving up 6.0 YPP. The Broncos defensively stats took a big hit last week allowing Miami to score 70 points but lets not forget the week prior they allowed Washington to score 35 points to a Washington team that scored 23 total points in their other 2 games vs teams not named Denver. Over 56% of opponents possessions vs the Broncos this season have either reached the red zone or scored prior to that which is the worst rate in the league. We think Chicago’s offense lays it all on the line here with nothing to lose and plays well. They thrive on the ground with their mobile QB Fields and Denver ranks 31st allowing 5.6 YPC on the season. In their only other home game this season the Bears put up 20 points on GB and we look for them to exceed that number today. Denver should have plenty of scoring opportunities as well. The Broncos offense has actually been solid averaging 5.7 YPP which is 8th in the NFL. QB Wilson is quietly having a solid season and he’ll be facing a Chicago secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and 31st in yards per pass attempt. Chicago’s defense has allowed 27 points or more in every game this season and dating back to last year they’ve allowed at least 25 points in 13 consecutive games. Perfect weather here with temps in the mid 70’s and light winds. Both offenses should thrive in this one and we’re going Over the total.

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Lions vs. Packers Predictions – Player Props – Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers – Thursday, Sept 28th 2023

Detroit Lions -1.5 | Over-Under 45.5

Green Bay Packers

1st HALF LINE – Lions -.5 | O/U 22

Team Totals – Lions O/U 23.5 – Packers O/U 21.5

Detroit Lions 2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS

Green Bay Packers 2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS

Thursday Night Player Props

Jordan Love Under 34 yards Longest Passing Play

Love has been solid in his first three starts for the Packers but has not hit on many big plays. Detroit ranks 10th (62.7%) in opponent completion percentage and Love is only completing 53% of his passes anyway. At 6.8 yards per attempt it shows his willingness to throw underneath and settle for short gains. In a short week, with multiple offensive playmakers questionable, we expect Love to continue to focus on short passes that keep Green Bay ahead of the chains. 

Romeo Doubs Over Anytime TD

Doubs has 3 touchdowns in 3 games in 2023. He has been the main redzone target for Jordan Love and feels like the Davante Adams replacement for Matt LaFleuer in that area. Aaron Jones is the only other reliable redzone threat for the Packers and his status is up in air. AJ Dillion has been flat out terrible in Jones’ absence so look for Doubs to again capitalize when Green Bay gets into scoring territory. 

Jared Goff Over .5 INTs

Having thrown an interception in both of his previous two games, we feel the trend continues on a short week. Overall, Goff has been a good if not great QB since becoming the starter in Detroit. The passing volume that has increased due to his play brings in more opportunity for mistakes however. Green Bay has a +2 turnover differential so far while Detroit has a -3 differential. Goff has thrown 30+ passes in all three games this year, so a high volume night is likely in store again, leaving plenty of room for a mistake in front of a rocking Lambeau Field crowd.  

Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 72.5 Rec Yards 

Averaging over 91 yards per game this season, Amon-Ra will benefit greatly if Jaire Alexander misses his second straight game. Regardless, the Lions will target St. Brown early and often and love hitting him on deep crossing routes off of play action. He is becoming one of the elite WRs in the league and a true number one for the Lions. Green Bay ranks 10th in passing yards allowed per game, but that number is skewed from playing some of the worst QBs in the league the first three weeks. Another 100 yards day could be in store for St. Brown, but 73 yards is very attainable even against a Packers defense that has played well to start the year. 

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Sports Betting Terms

Sports betting has its own set of terminology and jargon that can be helpful to know if you’re interested in sports betting. Here are some common sports betting terms:

  1. Point Spread (Spread): The point spread is a margin of victory that the sportsbook assigns to a game. It’s designed to even out the betting on both sides. For example, if a team is favored by 7 points, they must win by more than 7 points for a bet on them to win.
  2. Moneyline: The moneyline is a bet on which team will win the game outright. It involves odds that represent how much you can win or need to wager on a particular team. Positive odds indicate the potential profit on a $100 bet, while negative odds show how much you need to bet to win $100.
  3. Over/Under (Total): This is a bet on the total combined score of a game. You bet whether the actual score will be over or under the sportsbook’s predicted total.
  4. Parlay: A parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers. For the bet to be a winning one, all the linked bets must win. Parlays offer higher potential payouts but are riskier.
  5. Teaser: A teaser is similar to a parlay, but you can adjust the point spread or total in your favor. However, this reduces the potential payout.
  6. Futures: Futures bets are wagers placed on an event that will happen in the future, such as betting on the winner of a championship before the season starts.
  7. Proposition Bet (Prop Bet): Prop bets are bets on specific outcomes within a game, such as which player will score the first goal or how many three-pointers a player will make.
  8. Odds: Odds represent the probability of a particular outcome and the potential payout. There are American odds (+/-), fractional odds (3/1), and decimal odds (4.00), with different regions using different formats.
  9. Bookmaker (Sportsbook): A bookmaker is an entity that accepts bets on sports events and sets the odds. Online sportsbooks are popular for placing bets.
  10. Handicap: Handicapping is a process that levels the playing field by giving one team an advantage or disadvantage to even out the betting action.
  11. Push: A push occurs when a bet results in a tie between the bettor and the sportsbook. In this case, the bet is refunded.
  12. Cover: To “cover the spread” means a team has won by enough points to beat the point spread set by the sportsbook.
  13. Juice (Vig or Vigorish): The juice is the commission or fee that the sportsbook charges for taking bets. It’s typically included in the odds.
  14. Live Betting (In-Play Betting): Live betting allows you to place bets on a game while it’s in progress, adjusting your wagers as the game unfolds.
  15. Bankroll: Your bankroll is the total amount of money you’ve set aside for sports betting. Managing your bankroll is crucial for responsible betting.
  16. Chalk: “Chalk” refers to the favorite in a game, usually the team with the lower odds.
  17. Dog: “Dog” is short for underdog, the team or outcome less likely to win, typically associated with higher odds.
  18. Sharp and Square: Sharps are experienced, knowledgeable bettors, while squares are less informed or recreational bettors.

Here are some more sports betting terms and phrases:

  1. Handle: The total amount of money wagered on a particular event or in a sportsbook over a specific time frame.
  2. Public Betting: Refers to bets that are placed by the general public or casual bettors. Public betting trends can influence odds and betting strategies.
  3. Steam: Rapid and significant line movement caused by heavy betting action on one side. This often indicates sharp bettors are backing a particular side.
  4. Closing Line: The final odds or point spread offered by the sportsbook just before an event starts. It can be compared to the opening line to see how it has moved.
  5. Dime Line: A sportsbook with a dime line offers a 10-cent difference between the favorite and underdog odds. This is common in baseball betting.
  6. Nickel Line: Similar to the dime line, but with a 5-cent difference between the odds, often used in basketball.
  7. Unit: A unit is a standardized bet size that allows bettors to manage their bankroll consistently. It’s usually a percentage of the bankroll.
  8. Hedging: Placing additional bets to reduce or eliminate the potential losses of an existing bet. This is often done to secure a profit or minimize losses.
  9. Pushing the Line: Trying to move the point spread or total in your favor by betting on it heavily, typically done by professional bettors.
  10. Arbitrage (Arb): A strategy that involves betting on all possible outcomes of an event to guarantee a profit, regardless of the outcome.
  11. Circled Game: A game that the sportsbook has limited betting options on, often due to uncertainties such as player injuries.
  12. Buy Points: A feature offered by some sportsbooks that allows bettors to adjust the point spread or total by buying or selling points.
  13. Lock: A term used when bettors are extremely confident in the outcome of a bet.
  14. Chasing: When a bettor tries to recoup previous losses by placing larger or riskier bets.
  15. Vig Free: Refers to odds that don’t include the sportsbook’s commission (juice).
  16. Bad Beat: When a seemingly winning bet turns into a losing one due to an unexpected event or late-game score.
  17. Payout: The amount of money a bettor receives if their bet is successful, including the initial wager.
  18. Stake: The amount of money you are betting on a single wager.
  19. Tout: A person or service that claims to have expert sports betting advice for a fee.
  20. Scalping: A strategy involving making quick, small profits on small changes in odds, often seen in live betting.
  21. Dollar Bet: A common term for a $100 bet.
  22. Fading the Public: Betting against the consensus or popular opinion, often a strategy used by sharp bettors.

These are just some of the many terms used in sports betting. It’s important to understand these terms and how they work if you plan to engage in sports betting. Additionally, responsible gambling and understanding the odds are essential aspects of sports betting.

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NFL free pick | Sept 24th | Steelers vs. Raiders

ASA PLAY ON #475/476 UNDER 43.5 Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday 8:20pm ET

Our model is projecting 40.25 points being scored in this game and we couldn’t agree more with our computers for this NFL free pick. The Steelers offense is near the bottom of every key category including 31st in totally YPG, 29th in yards per play, 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in rushing yards per attempt and 26th in scoring at 16.5PPG. Obviously, their scoring numbers are even exaggerated considering they had 2 defensive scores last week. Take away those 2 defensive TD’s and this offense is averaging 9.5PPG. Las Vegas played a similar team to Pittsburgh in the opener against Denver and they combined for 33 total points. Last week against a highly motivated Bills team they lost 10-38 with Buffalo getting a garbage TD with 5 minutes left or that game stays Under this number. Las Vegas struggled offensively in that game with 13 first downs, 55-rushing yards and 185-passsing yards. In fact, the Raiders offense is just as bad as Pittsburgh’s. they rank 30th in total YPG, 30th in rushing, 31st in yards per rush, 21st in passing yards and are last in the league in scoring at 13.5PPG. Both defenses are better than their numbers to date as both allow over 5.5 yards per play and Over 27PPG but today each team will be facing low level offenses so expect much better showings by each. We like this game Under 43.5 as today’s NFL free pick.  

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NFL Player Prop | MNF | Sept 18, 2023

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS QB CARR OVER 232.5 PASSING YARDS

Saints QB Carr looked good in his Saint’s debut going 23/33 for 305YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT. Last season the Panthers defense was around league average in YPPL allowed at 5.5. They were 23rd in opponents’ completion percentage allowed and 14th in Yards Per completion allowed at 10.1. Carr can struggle at times when pressured but the Panthers were 25th in the NFL in QB pressure rate a year ago. Carr has thrown for over 231.5 passing yards in 35 of his last 50 games, 17 of his last 25 and 11 of his last 16. Odds are he’ll get Over 232.5 tonight.

CAROLINA PANTHERS QB BRYCE YOUNG OVER 0.5 INT’s

Panthers QB Young got off to a shaky debut in the opener against the Falcons with just 146 passing yards on 38 attempts with 2 INT’s. He’s playing behind a banged up offensive line and doesn’t have receivers that can separate. Tonight, he faces a Saint’s defense that was 8th in sack percentage D and 6th in sacks per game a year ago. This Saint’s ball-hawking secondary picked off Titans Ryan Tannehill three times in the opener. We expect the ‘young’ rookie QB to make a few errant throws tonight with at least one interception.

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