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NFL Free Bet | Bengals vs Buccaneers Prediction | Aug 10th

#126 ASA FREE PLAY ON Cincinnati Bengals -6 over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Saturday at 7 PM ET

This line has jumped from Cincinnati -3 to -6 this week and for good reason.  The Bengals are approaching this preseason much differently than they have the last few years. 

Head Coach Zac Taylor has seen his team struggle early in the regular season after he decided to sit most of his starters the last few years in the preseason.  Last year Cincy lost 3 of their first 4 regular season games and in 2022 they started 0-2.  Taylor has decided to take a different approach and his starters will all play on Saturday, including QB Burrow.

Once Burrow exits, the Bengals will go with Jake Browning who started 7 games last year and threw for 2,000 yards.  Tampa will sit all of their starters in this game according to head coach Todd Bowles. 

The Bucs will start Kyle Trask under center (10 career pass attempts) so big advantage to the Bengals in this game at QB.  While the Tampa starters will sit this one out, Bowles mentioned all of the rookies will play and potentially a lot. 

Reading between the lines this week, it sounds as if Cincinnati wants to win this game after winning just 1 preseason game the last 2 years.  We’ll call for the Bengals to win by at least a TD at home on Saturday.      

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Seattle Seahawks Preview | ASAwins NFL Win Totals

ASA’s NFC WEST WIN TOTAL PROJECTION

Seattle Seahawks – UNDER 7.5 Wins (+115)

The Seahawks finished last season with a record of 9-8 but they had a negative point differential (-38) and they were outgained by nearly 50 YPG.  Based on those stats alone, Seattle should have won only 7 games last season and that’s where we think they land in 2024 (7 or fewer wins).  They benefited from a positive turnover margin last season and only won 3 games by more than a TD in 2023 vs the 3 of the worst teams in the NFL, Carolina (2 wins last season), Arizona (4 wins last season), and the NY Giants (6 wins last season).  Six of Seattle’s wins last year came by 4 points or fewer or in OT and they were outgained in 5 of those tight 6 wins.  The offense finished 17th in points scored and 22nd in total yardage and we look for the Seahawks to regress on that side of the ball.  The offensive line is ranked 31st (out of 32 teams) by PFF heading into the season and QB Geno Smith took a big step back last season.  Smith had 10 fewer TD’s a year ago compared to 2022 and his completion percentage dropped by 5%.  They had very little running game last season (92 YPG rushing) and operating behind a poor Oline could be problematic for Smith and Company.  The defense allowed the 9th most points in 2023 along with the 3rd most yards gained by opponents despite finishing with a winning record.  Seattle has a new head coach, Mike McDonald, who has never been a head man at any level, so some growing pains are expected.  His coordinators are Ryan Grubb (OC) who has never coached in the NFL and Aden Durdy (DC) who has never been a DC in the NFL.  They faced the 11th most difficult schedule according to PFF and we look for this Seattle team to struggle in 2024.

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NFL Prediction | NFC Champions | Atlanta Falcons

By Point Train Consulting

NFL longshot – NFC Champions – Atlanta Falcons +1300

The schedule plays an important role here for the Falcons as they face one of, if not the easiest schedule in the NFL this season. Atlanta was 7-10 last season with six of those losses coming in one score games. Despite the losing record the Falcons had an average differential of minus -3.1PPG over the course of entire season.

The addition of QB Kirk Cousins was a huge acquisition in the offseason and should be the missing link for the Falcons offense that ranked 22nd in the NFL in passing yards per game last season and 28th in completion percentage. Before getting injured, Cousins, was 216 of 311 passing (70%) for 2,331 yards with 18 TD’s to 5 INT’s and those types of numbers will translate to wins in the NFC. The Falcons have our 5th best rated offensive line this season which should provide a clean pocket for Cousins and open running lanes for Bijan Robinson, who rushed for over 970 yards in 2023.

Defensively the Falcons were solid a year ago ranking 10th in Yards Allowed p/Game overall, 7th in Yards p/Play allowed at 5.0Y.P.P.L. Atlanta’s defense did a great job of getting off the field ranking 4th in 3rd down conversion allowed p/Game at 4.5.

The Falcons should win the NFC South and have a very favorable overall record at the end of the regular season. The teams that are favored over the Falcons to come out of the NFC are the: 49ers (+250), Lions (+550), Eagles (+700), Cowboys (+700) and Packers (+800) and each of those teams could face serious obstacles this season. The Niners face a difficult schedule and the NFC West should be better this season so a repeat Super Bowl bid may be tough for San Francisco. The Lions should see a regression in their win total after a surprise season a year ago and a horrific defense. The Cowboys will do Cowboys thing again and Green Bay may be fool’s gold with a overrated QB in Jordan Love. The Eagles are the biggest threat in the NFC in our opinion.

Atlanta could conceivably end up being the host in the NFC Championship game and if they get to that point, we will have a great opportunity to bet back if need be. At +1300 this is a very viable option for a future bet on the Atlanta Falcons.

Don’t miss any of Point Train’s NFL action this season after coming off a tremendous season a year ago of plus +44.6 Net Units of profits and a 32-20 streak to end the year. Check out the winning offers here

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WNBA Prediction | Sky vs Dream | 7/2/2024

WNBA Free Bet ASA play on Chicago Sky -1 at Atlanta Dream, 7PM ET

The Sky have been the more consistent team this season while the Dream have had their ups and downs, much of which is related to injuries. Atlanta was without Jordin Canada (ave’d 13.3PPG, 6.0APG last year) for most of the season but she has returned for 3 games but hasn’t been the same player. On the injured list now is Rhyne Howard who was averaging 15.4PPG, 4.5RPG and 3.4APG. After a 4-2 start to the season the Dream are now 3-8 SU their last eleven games. In this current 11-game stretch the Dream have the 3rd worst Net Rating in the league at -10.0. They have really struggled offensively with the worst Offensive Net rating of 92.2 and an EFG% of 42.7%. If we compare them to the Sky’s last eleven games we see a pretty stark contrast as the Sky have an overall Net Rating of minus -4.9. Chicago is 3-7 SU their last ten games but a look at who they’ve played says a lot with close losses to Minnesota, Las Vegas, Connecticut and New York who are some of the best teams in the league. On the season the Sky have a Net Point differential of minus -2.0PPG which is better than the Dream’s minus -4.5PPG. In a recent meeting the Dream beat the Sky by 9-points in Chicago but that was with Howard in the lineup who recorded a double-double in the game. We expect payback here with Chicago.

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WNBA Free Bet | Mercury at Storm | June 4th 2024

ASA’s WNBA play on OVER 166.5 Phoenix Mercury at Seattle Storm, 10PM ET

The Storm are the much better team when it comes to defense, ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency versus a Mercury team that ranks 11th. Offensively both teams average over 1.000-points per possession with the Storm averaging 84.5PPG, the Mercury score 80.4PPG.

A big influence for the Over wager on this game will be the pace of play as the Storm are the 2nd fastest paced team in the WNBA at 80.2 possessions per game, the Mercury are 3rd at 80.

Phoenix scores the majority of their points from beyond the 3-point line with 38.1 3PA per game, most in the league. Seattle does their offensive damage from inside the Arc with the 5th best 2PT% in the WNBA and also crash the O-boards hard with the 4th most OREB per game at 12.2. The Mercury allow 84.4PPG on the season, the Storm allow 80.3PPG.

The pace of play should be frenetic and the added scoring opportunities for both teams will make this a very high scoring game.  

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