Category: Freepicks

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MLB free wager | Rangers vs. Tigers | June 29th

ASA Free Play ON Texas Rangers Money Line -160 over Detroit Tigers @ 2:05 ET -Taking pitchers out of the equation, since one could argue a case for either starting pitcher here, note the difference in the teams here as well as the home field edge for Texas which is why there is really a strong argument for the favorite in this one. The Rangers are at home where they are 26-14 plus they have gone 29-11 this season when facing teams that do not have a winning record on the season. The Tigers are 16-24 in road games this season and Detroit is 11-25 against teams with a winning record this season.  Given these numbers you can see why laying the price with the Rangers at home is absolutely worth a look in this one as the odds in favor of the road team make the price a bargain even in the -160 range on this one.  Texas is the play here. 

 

Free picks – Recents

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MLB free bet | Giants vs. Blue Jays | June 27th

#919/920 ASA FREE PLAY ON Under 8.5 Runs – San Francisco Giants @ Toronto Blue Jays, Tuesday at 7 PM ET – This looks like a pitchers duel with Gausman expected to get the start for the Blue Jays and Walker (1.89 ERA) for the Giants. San Francisco has allowed an average of only 3 runs in last 13 road games. Toronto has allowed an average of only 3.6 runs in last 9 home games. We are looking for, at most, a 4-3 type battle here. We see some sharper books, in early market activity, have already dropped this total to an 8 and no matter how this total moves throughout the day, this is absolutely a sign that some sharper groups are also expecting a low-scoring battle here just like we are. We are going with the Under in this one.

Free bets or Free picks

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MLB Free bet – ASA – June 23rd

ASA FREE PLAY ON Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 on the Run Line (-125) over Kansas City Royals, Friday at 6:40 PM ET – We lost with this play as a premium play yesterday but will come right back with it here in this spot on Friday. The Royals, despite yesterday’s upset win, are having a very rough season and have lost 54 of 75 games this season and that includes having lost 32 of 41 games against teams with a winning record!  Here they are matched up with one of the best teams in MLB and the Rays have been particularly tough at home where they have won 32 of 41 games.  So here you have a 79% play on situation versus a 79% play against situation. Nice odds but that is based on wins and losses.  What about wins and losses by 2+ runs?  Well, the key here is that Tampa Bay has seen 75% of their wins (39 of 52) come by at least a 2-run margin.  The Royals have seen 83% of their losses (45 of 54) come by at least at 2-run margin.  Look for a big blowout here as this is a mismatch and that is before even talking about the pitchers.  This is a case of hot versus not and now, how about those pitchers?  The Rays are expected to start Eflin here and he is 8-3 with a 3.26 ERA this season. The Royals have Zack Greinke likely to get the start and he is 1-7 with a 4.81 ERA this season and known for struggling on the road more than at home in recent seasons. We think we’re getting some nice value laying -1.5 in this one at a -125 price with the Rays. Lay the 1.5 runs here!  

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NBA Free Bet – Suns vs Nuggets free pick – May 9th 2023

ASA play on OVER 228 Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets 10PM ET

We expect another higher scoring game tonight between the Suns and Nuggets. In Game 3 these two teams combined for 235 total points. A big reason was the pace of play. The Suns played much faster with Chris Paul on the bench and Cameron Payne pushing the pace. These two teams combined for 192 field goal attempts which is significantly higher than the league average of 176. Then in Game 4 these two teams produced 253 total points with incredible shooting as both teams hit over 56% from the field. The Nuggets were 5th in offensive efficiency on the season, the Suns were 14th in OEFF. Both teams have averaged nearly 1.180-points per possession in the Playoffs which is 2nd and 3rd in offensive efficiency. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams has resulted in more points than today’s number and we are betting that trend continues.

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NBA free bet – Saturday, April 22nd

ASA’s NBA free bet on Milwaukee Bucks Team Total OVER 112.5pts vs. Miami Heat, 7:30PM ET

Milwaukee essentially played without Giannis in Game 1 as he left the game with a back injury just 10-minutes in. The Bucks still managed 117 total points without him. Then in Game 2 the Bucks shot lights-out and put up 138. Milwaukee shot 54% overall and made 25 of 49 3-pointers or 51%. We don’t expect the Bucks to shoot that well again in Game 3 but they won’t have too for them to get to 113.  This team was the 8th highest scoring team in the league this season at 116.9PPG and ranked 10th in offensive efficiency at 1.120PPP. Milwaukee has the 10th best EFG% average in the NBA at 55.5%. This team was built with shooters and is reliant on 3-point shooting. Milwaukee attempts the 4th most 3’s per game in the league, and on average make 36.6% of their attempts. In Game 1 though the Bucks connected on just 11 of 45 3-pointers or 24%. That number is clearly an anomaly as the Bucks typically shoot much better than that AND the Heat don’t defend the Arc well, ranking 19th in the NBA allowing 36.3%. This Milwaukee team is deep and has capable scorers that can put up more than 113 with or without Giannis. Milwaukee has scored more than 113 in four straight games against the Heat and we like them to get there today as our NBA free bet.

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