Category: Freepicks

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NFL Player Prop Bets | Nov 17th 2024

NFL Player Prop Bets – Free prop bets for Sunday, Nov 17th 2024

Ravens Lamar Jackson over 42.5 Rush Yards (-115)

Jackson has surpassed 45 rushing yards in seven of his ten games this season. In the previous two weeks he has not needed to use his legs as much, shredding the Broncos and Bengals in the midst of throwing 7 TDs and 0 INTs. He matches up against the Steelers and their second ranked scoring defense on the road this Sunday. A better defense actually suits Jackson’s rushing prop as he will be forced to run more rather than get what he wants from the pocket. Lamar has only played in 2 of the previous 6 games against Pittsburgh, and he rushed for 55 and 45 yards respectively. Expect Jackson to return to his scrambling ways in a huge divisional matchup in the highest projected point total of the weekend. 

49ers Christian McCaffrey Over 27.5 Rec Yards (-120)

CMC was finally back last week and totalled 107 yards with 68 receiving yards on seven targets. With such involvement in the passing game, especially after missing every game so far this season, McCaffrey will see plenty of volume once again. Another hotly contested division game has the second highest O/U of week 11. Seattle has a middle of the road defense but can fill it up on offense. Points should be plentiful and if CMC plays 88% of the running back snaps again, it’s hard to imagine he does not amass his receiving total. 

Dolphins Tyreek Hill Anytime TD (+120) 

Hill caught his first touchdown since week one in last week’s win vs the Rams. Since Tua has been back, the Dolphins offense went from abysmal to just mediocre. With so many weapons and Tyreek’s immense talent it’s only a matter of time before Miami gets back on track. Hill had so many explosive plays and 13 TDs last season. Las Vegas ranks 30th in points allowed in 2024 and if Reek is ever going to have a breakout game, its going to be after a big win while gaining chemistry back with his quarterback against a bad team. Hill has nine targets the past two games combined which is unacceptable. The squeaky wheel treatment better be in store for the NFLs fastest man. 

Colts Jonathon Taylor – Over 81.5 Rush Yards (-110)

Taylor has been over this rushing total in 5 of seven games this season and with the QB change back to Richardson, the Colts should feed Taylor and pound the football against a suspect Jets D. Taylor averages over this number on the season and is averaging 18 carries per game so we know he’ll get his share of carries. The Colts have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and anchor an offense that averages 4.7 yards per rush, 9th most in the NFL. The Jets defense has struggled to stop the run, allowing 134 rushing yards per game 25th most in the NFL. Opposing teams have run the football on average 31 times per game against the Jets, 3rd highest number in the league.

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Cincinnati vs Iowa State Prediction | Nov 16 2024 | Free bet

ASA free bet on Cincinnati +7.5 at Iowa State – 8pm ET

The Bearcats are the play here as the Cyclones have been exposed in their last two games. After starting the season 7-0, Iowa State has come back to Earth with a pair of losses to Texas Tech and Kansas. The Cyclones have a Yards Per Play differential in their last 3 games is a negative -0.5YPP and the defense has looked suspect in two straight games. Last week the Jayhawks rushed for over 220 yards against ISU, which plays into the Bearcats strength offensively. Cincinnati rushes for 170ypg and 4.8 yards per carry which both rank top 55 in the country. The Bearcats have a complimentary passing attack that averages 268ypg (31st) with QB’s completing 66.2% of their attempts (22nd). Cincinnati is coming off a loss last week to West Virginia, a game in which they dominated statistically with 24 FD’s to 10, a +9 minute TOP advantage and a 436 to 248 yardage advantage. We recommend a small play the Bearcats plus the points.

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Commanders vs Eagles Predictions | 11-14-24 | Prop Bets

Philadelphia Eagles AJ Brown OVER 78.5 Receiving yards – Brown has been over this number in 4 of his last five games and is averaging 92.17 in his last ten games. Last year in 2 meetings with the Redskins team he had 8 targets, 8 receptions for 130 yards and 9 receptions on 13 targets for 175 yards. Washington’s pass defense is 20th in yards/completion at 10.2, 21st in completion % against and 27th in opposing quarterbacks’ QBR rating. 

Washington Commanders TE Zach Ertz OVER 3.5 Receptions – Ertz is averaging 6.3 targets per game over his last six games and has 4 or more receptions in 5 of those six games. Philadelphia allows 4.1 receptions per game to TE’s this season despite having one of the best pass defenses in the league. Ertz only played in 7 games a year ago but in his previous two seasons of 11 and 10 games he averaged 5 and 4.7 receptions per game. In his 12 year career, Ertz has averaged 4.6 receptions per game. Let’s not forget he is playing against the team that drafted him back in 2013 and whom he played for in 9 seasons.

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NBA Rockets vs Mavericks Prediction | 10-31-24

ASA NBA free bet on UNDER 226 Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks, 8:40PM ET

We like a low scoring game between these two Texas teams with a projected final of 215 total points being scored.

Houston has made a commitment to the defensive end of the court under coach Udoka, currently ranking 8th in defensive efficiency allowing just 1.086-points per possession. Last season the Rockets finished the entire season ranked 10th in DEFF so it’s clearly not just a one year thing. When you look at full season stats the Mavs were not good defensively allowing 1.149-points per possession which ranked 18th in the NBA. In their last 23 games of the season though they allowed 1.104PPP, 9th best in the league.

This season in four games the Mavericks are allowing 1.098PPG which is 10th best in the league. Contrary to what you might think, the Mavs play at a slower tempo averaging 100 possessions per game which ranks 17th. The Rockets are slower yet in pace of play at 98.25, 25th slowest in the NBA.

Thus far into the season these two teams have not shot it well either with the Mavericks ranking 22nd in EFG% shooting, the Rockets are 28th. The average total points scored in a NBA game this season is slightly higher than this, but we don’t see this being average with a slow tempo, great defense and below average shooting. This NBA Rockets vs Mavericks prediction is UNDER the Total.

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NBA Free Bet Today | Knicks vs Celtics Prediction | Oct 22 2024

ASA NBA Free Bet on UNDER 222.5 NY Knicks at Boston Celtics, 7:30PM ET

Last year these two teams opened the season off with an Under and 212 total points on opening night. That really doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s wager, but here’s what does.

These two teams were both top 11 in defensive efficiency with the Celtics 3rd, allowing 1.078-points per possession, the Knicks ranked 11th at 1.104PP allowed. The other key factor here is pace of play. The Knicks were the slowest paced team in the league last season at 95.2 possessions per game. Contrary to what you might think, the Celtics were also slower paced at 97.1 possessions per game which ranked 7th slowest.

If the preseason is any indication of what New York plans to do this season we can expect great defense tonight. The Knicks held 4 of five opponents to 110 or less points in the preseason. The Celtics also showed their defensive prowess in the exhibition season allowing 111 or less in 4 of five games.

With the Celtics coming off a Championship they may be slow to start tonight. The Knicks have several new pieces and it could take time for the starters to jell. In this opening night game we like UNDER the total.

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