Author: Lee Kostroski

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NBA Free pick | Rockets vs Thunder | Oct 21 2025

ASAwins NBA Free play on UNDER 227.5 Houston Rockets at Oklahoma City Thunder, 7:40pm ET

The public has jumped on the OVER in this game but the handle is on UNDER. We like what the betting market is saying about this game and will put our money on a low scoring affair. Obviously that is not the only reason we like this game UNDER as our math model is projecting 224.3 total points. The Thunder were the best team in the NBA defensively during the regular season a year ago allowing just 1.075 points per possession. The Rockets were 4th best in that stat category allowing 1.107PPP. OKC was 6th in pace of play, but the Rockers were 17th. The Thunder were one of the most efficient offenses in the NBA a year ago, the Rockets were 13th. Houston made a huge trade in the offseason and brought in Kevin Durant but had to give up Jalen Green in the deal. The Rockets will be without Fred VanVleet for the season who was 3rd in scoring at 14.1ppg and led the team in assists. This team is going to be a match up nightmare for teams as they start 6’7 Amen Thompson then have four players all over 6’11. OKC is the defending Champ and odds on favorite to win it all again. They will however be without second leading scorer Jalen Williams for this game and could be missing Alex Caruso who was banged up in the preseason. We expect both offenses to be slightly behind the defenses to start the season and predict a game below 224. 

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NBA WIN TOTAL BETS | 2025-26 FUTURES

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NBA SEASON LONG WIN TOTAL BETS

LA CLIPPERS OVER 49.5 WINS (-120) – The Clippers are going to be better this season than they were a year ago when they won 50 games. They lost Norman Powell to the Heat but added Bradley Beal, Chris Paul and Brook Lopez. They also get a full year with John Collins in the lineup after trading for him midway through the season last year. The health of aging Kahwi Leonard is always a concern but this deep roster can overcome load management games with some of the vets resting nights. Los Angeles was 6th in average margin of victory last season at +4.7PPG and had the 5th best Efficiency Differential at +4.8. 

MILWAUKEE BUCKS OVER 43.5 WINS (+100) – The one caveat that could derail this season long win total bet is if Giannis Antetokounmpo demands a trade mid-season. The Bucks added a few key pieces in the offseason with Miles Turner, Cole Anthony and Gary Harris along with bringing back Thanasis Antetokounmpo (to appease Giannis). Milwaukee had the 11th best Efficiency Differential in the NBA a year ago at +2.4 and won 48 games. The Eastern Conference is going to be down this season with Super Star players Jayson Tatum (Celtics) and Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers) sidelined. The Bucks have won 44+ games every season dating back to the 2017-18 season. Giannis was a top 3 player last season in Value Index and Usage percentage. If he stays…the Bucks win 50.

TORONTO RAPTORS OVER 39.5 WINS (-110) – The Raptors had the 9th most missed games due to injuries last season and still managed to win 30 games. If this team can remain healthy we like them to get to 40+ wins and make the playoffs as a 6-8 seed. The starting lineup of Quickley, Barrett, Ingram, Barnes and Poeltl is solid. Ingram and Barnes are All-Star caliber players capable of averaging 22+ points per game. 

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS UNDER 47.5 WINS (-122) – The Warriors are obviously a public team and their win total reflects a bump of a few wins making them a value UNDER team. Father time is undefeated and Steph Curry, Draymond Green, Jimmy Butler and Al Horford aren’t getting any younger. This team was still elite defensively a year ago with the 7th best Defensive Efficiency rating in the regular season, but their offense was average (15th in OEFF). The Warriors won 48 games a year ago but it’s going to be tough to get to that number with this aging roster. And let’s face it, Golden State isn’t concerned about winning the division or the Western Conference, they want to be fresh come playoff time and just have a seat at the table.

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NBA Championship Bet | Nuggets +700 | 2025-26

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ASA NBA Future Bet: Nuggets at +700: A Championship Steal with Upgraded Depth and Defense

The Denver Nuggets sit at +700 odds to win the 2025-26 NBA Championship (implied probability ~12.5%), offering solid value for a team that’s reloaded around Nikola Jokić after a heartbreaking seven-game loss to the Thunder in the 2024-25 Western Conference Semifinals. 

Fresh off a 50-32 regular season that secured the No. 4 seed, Denver’s elite offense—ranking 4th in offensive efficiency (OEFF) last year at 116.3 points per 100 possessions—remains one of the league’s best, but their defensive woes (22nd in defensive efficiency, DEFF, at 114.5) needed improvement. Fast-forward to the offseason: the Nuggets aggressively addressed depth and perimeter D, transforming a top-heavy roster into a balanced contender poised for another title run.

In the 2023-24 championship season, they finished 5th in OEFF and 8th in DEFF. Last year’s defensive drop-off correlated with thin bench minutes, but new additions flip the script. Trading Michael Porter Jr. (a high-usage scorer plagued by inconsistency – not a great defender) to Brooklyn for Cam Johnson nets a defensive upgrade—Johnson posted a career-best 18.8 PPG in 2024-25 while ranking in the 85th percentile for defensive versatility, per NBA Advanced Stats, adding switchable wings to clog passing lanes.

Re-signing Bruce Brown (the 2023 Finals X-factor) brings back gritty two-way play, while signing Tim Hardaway Jr. (fresh off a stint with Detroit) injects 40% three-point shooting (on 5.5 attempts per game last season) to stretch floors and punish help defense. Swapping Dario Šarić for Jonas Valančiūnas from Sacramento provides Jokić his best backup big ever—a rebounding machine (9.3 RPG for his career) who can anchor the paint with Jokic on the bench. These moves boost bench net rating by an estimated +4.2 points per 100 possessions (via Cleaning the Glass projections), directly targeting last year’s -3.1 non-Jokić minutes.

With Jokić entering his prime (projected for another MVP-caliber 26-12-9 line) and a healthier Jamal Murray, Denver’s now built for playoff grind. At +700, they’re undervalued and a solid bet  to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy and pocket that sweet payout.

ASAwins NBA Service – Some of the best betting advice in the biz!

  • Proven Success: 7 of the last 8 NBA seasons delivered profitable results!
  • Impressive ROI: Over the last 5 years, we’ve achieved 141.4 Net Stars WON!
  • Bouncing Back: After a rare down year, our 35+ years of experience, advanced computer analytics, line analysis, and math model metrics are ready to win big!

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NFL Free Bet | Eagles vs Vikings | Oct 19 2025

Point Train NFL Free Bet: Philadelphia Eagles -0.5 in the First Half @ Minnesota Vikings – 12PM CT

RATING: 3UNIT

  • We don’t trust the Eagles for the full game but feel they’ll come out an play very well and inspired in the first half coming off a terrible loss vs the Giants
  • The Eagles average 14.8 points in the first half this year which is 4th in the NFL.  Their first half point margin is +1.8 per game
  • The Eagles have trailed at half in only 2 of their 6 games vs Rams and Giants
  • The Eagles are averaging 2.83 points per drive in the first half which is 6th best in the NFL
  • The Vikings have trailed at the half in 4 of their 5 games this season. 
  • The Vikings are averaging just 11.8 points in the first half and they’ve scored only 3 offensive TD’s in the first half this season
  • The Vikings have scored TD’s on only 3 of their 29 first half possessions this season which is barely a 10% rate – that ranks 28th in the NFL
  • We anticipate the Eagles getting off to a fast start and leading at the half

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College Football Free Bet | Ohio State vs Wisconsin | Oct 18

#399 ASA FREE PLAY ON Ohio State -25 over Wisconsin, Saturday at 3:30 PM ET

Will Badgers score in this game?  They were shutout 37-0 at home vs Iowa last week and OSU’s defense is a few notches better than the Hawkeyes. 

OSU is allowing just 8 PPG on the season and teams are averaging 0.85 points per drive, both #1 in the country.  Wisconsin’s offense has been brutal to say the least. 

They are down to their 3rd string QB (transfer from Southern Illinois) and they can’t run the ball (116th nationally in YPG rushing).  That makes it very tough to score and they’ve shown that can’t. 

This team is averaging less than 7 PPG in Big 10 play and over their last 4 games they’ve had 45 offensive possessions and scored a grand total of 3 offensive TD’s.  Just terrible. 

And now they face the best defense they’ve seen this year.  A defense that held Washington to 6 points, Texas to 7 points, and Minnesota to 3 points. 

Offensively OSU isn’t great this year but they are still very good.  They still rank 19th in the country in YPP and 23rd in scoring putting up 37 PPG.  They shouldn’t need to do much on offense here as Wisconsin will do next to nothing on their offensive side of the ball. 

OSU has scored at least in the mid 30’s in 4 of their 6 games and that should easily get it done here vs a Wisconsin defense that started out well, but has faded. 

The Badgers have allowed 38, 27, 24, and 37 points over their last 4 games and 3 of those offenses rank 50th or worse (total offense) including Iowa who ranks 115th yet put up 37 points last week. 

The Badgers put a lot of emotional effort into last week’s game vs arch rival Iowa and still got smoked.  Nothing left in the tank here and OSU rolls big.

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