Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFL Free play | Dolphins vs Falcons | Oct 26 2025

#268 ASA NFL FREE PLAY ON Atlanta Falcons -7 over Miami Dolphins, Sunday a 1 PM ET

We like the Falcons to bounce back after a poor showing last Sunday @ San Francisco.  Atlanta opened as a dog last week vs the Niners and flipped to a small favorite but didn’t show up to play losing 20-10.  The yardage was dead even at 4.9 YPP (season low for the Falcons) and Atlanta was shut out on downs in their final 2 drives.  Prior to that loss, the Falcons had topped Washington by 7 and Buffalo by 10 (2 playoff caliber teams), both at home.  Miami is in a freefall.  They are now 1-6 SU on the season after getting rolled 31-6 @ Cleveland last week.  It was the first time in 11 games the Browns topped 17 points.  This will be the Browns 3rd road game in 4 weeks and they are 0-4 SU on the road (3 of those losses coming by double digits).  The Fins have internal issues and head coach McDaniel is on the hot seat to say the least.  Seems like this team is very close to imploding and if they get down in this game, it might be lights out.  Atlanta is one of 2 teams that ranks in the top 7 in total offense and total defense (other is KC).  Miami ranks 26th in total offense and 27th in total defense.  This is a terrible match up for the Dolphins defense as they rank dead last defending the run allowing 160 YPG on the ground and they are facing an Atlanta offense that averages 137 YPG rushing (4th in the NFL). No Penix Jr, No problem with vet Kirk Cousins under center. Atlanta RB Robinson (6th in the NFL in rushing yards) had a poor outing vs SF (2.9 YPC) but he should have a field day vs this defense.  Miami’s offense will be without one of the key weapons, TE Waller, and they’re already missing Tyreek Hill.  Now facing the #2 defense (Atlanta allows just 265 YPG) we expect a struggle.  Atlanta wins this home tilt by more than a TD. 

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NBA free pick | Hawks vs Magic | Oct 24 2025

ASAwins NBA free pick on: Atlanta Hawks +5 at Orlando Magic, 7:10pm ET

This is a rematch from last season’s 7 vs 8 playoff meeting which the Magic won 120-95. Atlanta has a rebuilt roster and is expected by many experts to make a strong playoff run this season. The Hawks added Porzingis, Alexander-Walke and Kennard to the roster and also get Jalen Johnson back from injury, who was having an All-Star type season a year ago before getting hurt. Orlando also made a big splash in the offseason with the addition of Desmond Bane who will be a great fit for the Magic. These teams suffered different fates in their season openers with the Hawks getting blown out at home by the Raptors, while the Magic beat instate rivals the Miami Heat. We think it’s going to take some time for the Hawks to adjust to the new players on the roster while the Magic’s will be seamless. Orlando was 22-19 SU at home last season with an average +/- of +2.1ppg. Atlanta was 19-23 SU on the road a year ago with an average MOV of minus -1.1ppg. The home team won and covered the last three meetings between these two teams a year ago and the Magic own a 40-18 ATS record at home as a chalk dating back to 2023 with an average MOV in those games of +10.7ppg. We won’t bite on the revenge angle here and will lay the points with the Magic as today’s NBA free pick.

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NFL News & Notes | Oct 23 2025

NFLNEWS&NOTES

ASA’s NFL News & Notes – Oct 23 2025

CHICAGO BEARS – The Bears topped New Orleans 26-14 on Sunday and have now won 4 straight games.  Believe it or not, that their longest winning streak in 6 years!  How have they done it?  Turnovers.  They have at least 3 takeaways in all 4 of their wins during that stretch and they created 4 takeaways in 3 of those games.  Their turnover margin during their 4 game winning streak is +13 which is insane for that short stretch of time.  In 2 of those wins, Chicago needed a FG as time expired to win vs Washington and they blocked a FG as time expired to win vs Las Vegas.  They were +3 turnovers in both of those games which wouldn’t often come down to last second FG situations for teams with a +3 turnover margin in a game.  They won each of those 2 games by 1 point.  The Bears have now moved into the top spot in the NFL at +11 turnover margin on the season which is 3 better than Jacksonville who sits with the 2nd best mark at +8.    

BALTIMORE RAVENS – We don’t often see teams that have a record of 1-5 favored by nearly a TD over a team that is 4-2.  That’s what we have on Sunday with Baltimore -6.5 at home vs Chicago, who has won 4 straight games.  The expectation is that starting QB Lamar Jackson will be back after missing 3 games with a hamstring injury.  Jackson did not practice on Monday but prior to the bye head coach Jim Harbaugh was anticipating him back for this game.  The Birds were outscored 98-33 in the 3 games Jackson was out.  So, while offense has been an issue, their defense has been really bad as well.  They rank dead last allowing 32 PPG, they are 30th in total defense, and 27th in YPP defense.  For perspective, the Baltimore defense ranked 8th, 8th and 6th last year in those statistics.  They did have a rash of injuries on that side of the ball a few weeks ago and they are getting healthier on defense which should help.  Turnovers have also been an issue.  They have committed 10 turnovers through 6 games after committing 11 the entire season last year. 

NY JETS – Man this Jets offense is bad.  They haven’t reached the endzone since October 5th.  In their last 2 games, they’ve totaled 302 yards on 127 plays which is a terrible 2.37 YPP.  They reached the redzone (opponents 20 yard line or closer) just twice in those 2 games and didn’t score a TD in either.  QB Justin Fields has completed 15 passes in the last 2 games combined and his yards per attempt was just 3.1.  They replaced him with Tyrod Taylor in last week’s loss vs Carolina.  Taylor proceeded to complete 45% of this passes and threw 2 interceptions.  They have not topped 4.6 YPP in 5 of their last 6 games.  The Jets defense hasn’t been much help with 1 takeaway the entire season.  The only winless team in the NFL travels to Cincinnati this weekend where they are a 6.5 point dog vs a team that hasn’t been favored since QB Joe Burrow went on the shelf.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – We mentioned a few weeks ago in this weekly article that the Jags had been a bit lucky this season.  They were 4-1 at the time, had a negative YPP differential and were living off their turnover margin, which at the time was #1 in the NFL.  They had a +7 turnover margin in their first 4 wins but were outgained on a YPP basis in 3 of those 4 wins.  We felt they their luck was getting ready to run out and we faded Jacksonville each of the last 2 weeks and picked up 2 wins.  In their games vs Seattle and the LA Rams, the turnover margin was even in both games and Jacksonville was outscored 55-19.  After last weekend they now rank 23rd in the NFL in YPP margin.  Coming back from their blowout loss to the Rams in London, they now have this week off before traveling to Las Vegas.

DENVER BRONCOS – The Broncos became the first team in over 1,600 games that trailed by 18 or more with 6:00 minutes or less remaining the won the game.  They didn’t score a point in the first 3 quarters last week vs the Giants and then exploded for 33 points in the 4th quarter!  They scored their final 30 points all in the last 5:15 of the game.  The Broncos were 7 point favorites and led for a grand total of 1 minute and 14 seconds.  Denver is 2nd in the NFL in YPP margin behind only Seattle but their point differential is just +36 (9th in the NFL) despite their 5-2 record.  All of their games with the exception of their big win vs Cincinnati, have come by one score (both wins and losses).    

CLEVELAND BROWNS – The Browns offense broke through for 31 points last week vs Miami.  Prior to that, Cleveland had scored 17 points or less in 11 straight games.  So is the Cleveland offense heading in the right direction after their breakout performance?  We doubt it.  Sure they scored 31 points but they only had 206 total yards and averaged just 3.9 YPP.  They benefitted from 4 Miami turnovers and scored 21 of their 31 points directly off of those turnovers including a pick 6.  Rookie QB Gabriel has done a nice job of protecting the ball in his 3 starts (0 turnovers) but he’s completed less than 60% of his passes in 2 of those games and he’s averaging a paltry 5.1 yards per pass attempt.  The Browns offense still ranks 28th or lower in scoring, total offense, YPP, rushing YPG, and passing YPG.  They head to New England on Sunday to try and win back to back games for the first time since 2023.    

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS – After starting 0-2 with home losses vs LA Chargers and Baltimore, the Chiefs look like they just might be the best team in the NFL right now.  They’ve won 4 of the last 5 and in their 1 loss during that stretch they outgained Jacksonville 7.6 YPP to 5.9 YPP.  A 99 yard pick 6 for the Jags was the difference and even with that they needed a TD in the waning seconds to win by 3 points.  Their 4 wins have come by an average margin of +18.5 points and they’ve outgained their last 5 opponents by over 600 combined yards.  They are now the only team in the NFL that ranks in the top 5 in both total offense and total defense.  Two of their top offensive playmakers returned from injury (Xavier Worthy) and suspension (Rashee Rice) and after a slow start Mahomes has now completed over 70% of his passes over the last 3 games.  On the season he has 14 TD passes and just 2 interceptions and he’s rushed for 250 yards on 6.0 YPC.  The oddsmakers have made the adjustment with KC favored by 10.5 next Monday night vs Washington (who will most likely be without QB Jayden Daniels).

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – The Pats have quietly put together a 4 game winning streak and have moved to 5-2 on the season.  However, we’re not sure what to think of this team quite yet.  They’ve played the easiest schedule in the NFL to date and on top of that they have the easiest remaining schedule as well.  Of their final 10 games, only 2 opponents currently have a record above .500 (Bucs, and Bils).  Their other 8 remaining opponents have a current combined record of 12-42.  Despite that east schedule, their YPP margin is -0.15 which is 20th in the NFL.  3 of their 5 wins have come against the Titans, Saints, and Dolphins who have a combined record of 3-18.  They have a loss vs Las Vegas who sits at 2-5 on the season.  New England just pushed through their tough scheduling spot (3 straight road games) with wins @ Buffalo, @ New Orleans, and @ Tennessee.  QB Drake Maye has a top 5 QBR and has already thrown 12 TD’s (15 all of last year) and has only 2 interceptions (10 last year).   

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NHL Free Bet | Kings vs Stars Prediction | Oct 23 2025

ASA’s NHL free play on: Dallas Stars (-150) vs. Los Angeles Kings 9pm ET

Tonight’s matchup at American Airlines Center pits the high-octane Dallas Stars against a stingy but road-weary Los Angeles Kings squad. With the Stars listed as -150 moneyline favorites, I’m backing Dallas to notch the victory and extend the home team dominance in this series.

Dallas enters with elite offensive firepower that has underperformed early on this season, but is ready to explode any given night. This Stars offense was 3rd league-wide in goals for (275 total last season, averaging 3.35 per game) while sitting 6th in goals against (222 allowed). At home, they went 28-10-3 a year ago, this Kings team limped to a 17-19-5 road mark in 2024-25. Digging deeper into the splits, Dallas posted a robust +1.12 average goal differential in their 41 home games last season, outpacing foes by more than a goal per night on familiar ice.

Conversely, LA managed just a -0.25 average goal differential across their 41 road tilts, where defensive lapses and sluggish starts were a recurring issues.

In net, Jake Oettinger gives Dallas a clear edge. The 26-year-old stud anchored the crease with a 36-18-4 record, 2.59 GAA, .909 SV%, and 2 shutouts over 58 starts last year—numbers that ballooned his value with an eight-year extension this offseason. Oettinger thrives at home, where his puck-tracking and rebound control neutralize LA’s forecheck.

On the flip side, Darcy Kuemper was lights-out for the Kings in 2024-25 (31-11-7, 2.02 GAA, .921 SV%, 5 shutouts in 50 games), earning Vezina buzz and anchoring LA’s league-2nd goals against (203 total). But his road splits dipped noticeably (.915 SV%, 2.25 GAA), and facing Dallas’ top-5 power play could expose any early rust in this cross-conference clash.

Even-strength play tilts Dallas’ way too. The Stars ranked top-5 in 5-on-5 expected goals share (55.2%) last season, leveraging their speed and cycle game to control play and generate high-danger chances— an advantage that should wear down LA’s structured but aging blue line.

Head-to-head history seals the deal: The home team won all three meetings last season  and 8 of the last 10 dating back to 2022. Pick: Dallas Stars ML (-150) – Lay the juice; this feels like a 4-2 Stars dub.

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NBA Player Prop Bet | Khris Middleton | Oct 22 2025

ASA’s NBA PLAYER PROP BET:

OVER 21.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists – Khris Middleton Washington Wizards

K-Midd returns to Milwaukee tonight to face his former mates and the team he played for 12 seasons. Middleton looked healthy in the preseason playing 20+ minutes in two games and he is tabbed a starter tonight for the Wiz. His usage should be 30+ minutes in this game with projected numbers of: 15 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Washington was the 4th fastest paced team in the NBA a year ago which means plenty of possession in this game against the Bucks, who were only slightly better than league average in Defensive Efficiency a year ago.

We expect a big game out of Middleton in his return to Milwaukee.

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