Author: Lee Kostroski

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NFL Bets | Pittsburgh Steelers Win Total Bet | June 18 2025

Steelers Aaron Rodgers

NFL Futures Betting Prediction: Why the Pittsburgh Steelers Will Finish UNDER 8.5 Wins in 2025

By ASAwins

As the 2025 NFL season approaches, the Pittsburgh Steelers are a team generating plenty of buzz, particularly with the high-profile signing of quarterback Aaron Rodgers. However, despite their consistent success under head coach Mike Tomlin, there are compelling reasons to believe the Steelers will fall short of their 8.5-win total in the 2025 season. This article dives into the data, schedule challenges, and key roster changes to support a futures betting prediction of UNDER 8.5 wins for Pittsburgh.

A Closer Look at Last Season’s Performance

The Steelers posted a 10-7 record in the 2024 season, a testament to Mike Tomlin’s (has never had an under .500 season….gulp) ability to squeeze wins out of a roster with clear limitations. However, a deeper look reveals that their success was somewhat inflated. Five of their 10 victories came against teams with losing records: the 3-win Cleveland Browns, 3-win New York Giants, 4-win Las Vegas Raiders, and 5-win New York Jets. These wins accounted for half of their total on the season. Against stronger teams, the Steelers were less consistent, which raises concerns heading into a much tougher 2025 schedule.

Advanced metrics further highlight the Steelers’ middling performance. According to DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings, Pittsburgh finished the 2024 season ranked 15th overall, with a 19th-ranked offense and an 8th-ranked defense. While their defense was a strength, their offense struggled to find consistency, a recurring issue that may not be fully resolved with their new quarterback.

Aaron Rodgers: An Upgrade or a Risk?

The biggest offseason move for Pittsburgh was signing four-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers to a one-year deal after his release from the New York Jets. On paper, Rodgers brings an elite pedigree, having thrown for 3,897 yards, 28 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions in 2024. However, his performance was far from vintage, ranking 25th in QBR (48.0) and posting a completion percentage over expectation of -5%, per NFL Next Gen Stats. These numbers reflect a quarterback still recovering from a torn Achilles that sidelined him for nearly all of 2023, raising questions about his ability to return to MVP form at age 41.

Is Rodgers an upgrade over 2024 starters Russell Wilson and Justin Fields? It’s a mixed bag. Wilson and Fields struggled to elevate Pittsburgh’s offense, which ranked 19th in DVOA, but Rodgers’ 2024 performance suggests he may not be a significant improvement. His reluctance to adapt to play-action-heavy schemes, a staple of new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s system, could create friction. Additionally, Rodgers’ chemistry with new top receiver D.K. Metcalf is uncertain, as Metcalf’s less precise route-running may clash with Rodgers’ demand for perfection.

While Rodgers offers some upside, his age, injury history, and recent performance make him a risky bet to transform Pittsburgh’s offense into a top-tier unit. The Steelers’ offensive line, which struggled in 2024, also poses a concern for Rodgers’ health and effectiveness. If he can’t stay upright, Pittsburgh’s ceiling is limited.

A Brutal 2025 Schedule

The Steelers face a significantly tougher slate in 2025, which is a major factor in this UNDER prediction. Their opponents include the NFC North and AFC East, two divisions loaded with top tier teams. Based on 2024 DVOA ratings, Pittsburgh projects to face the fifth-hardest set of opposing offenses, a stark contrast to the 10th-hardest schedule they faced last season.

From Week 7 to Week 11 alone, the Steelers play four games against teams that ranked 12th or better in offensive DVOA in 2024, including two matchups against the Cincinnati Bengals, who boast one of the league’s most explosive passing attacks. The back half of their schedule includes daunting games against Baltimore (twice), Buffalo, Detroit, and Green Bay—all teams with top-tier offenses in 2024. This brutal stretch could expose Pittsburgh’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly if their offense struggles to keep pace.

Pittsburgh’s early schedule is more favorable, with their first five games against teams ranked 15th or worse in offensive DVOA last season. However, even if they start strong—say, 3-2 or 4-1—the gauntlet from Week 7 onward makes it difficult to maintain momentum.

Defensive Concerns and Turnover Dependency

Pittsburgh’s defense was a bright spot in 2024, ranking 8th in DVOA and excelling at forcing turnovers (27 takeaways, tied for 8th in the NFL). However, their success was heavily reliant on opportunistic play. When excluding turnovers, the Steelers ranked 18th in defensive EPA per play and 22nd in defensive success rate, revealing a unit that struggled to consistently stall drives without takeaways.

Facing a tougher set of offenses in 2025, Pittsburgh’s defense may not generate turnovers at the same rate, especially against disciplined teams like Buffalo and Green Bay. The loss of key players like left tackle Dan Moore Jr. and the trade of George Pickens for D.K. Metcalf and Robert Woods don’t inspire confidence in significant offensive improvement, which could leave the defense on the field for longer stretches.

Final Prediction

The Steelers are likely to hover around .500, finishing with 7 or 8 wins. Their early schedule provides opportunities to bank wins, but the brutal second half, combined with offensive uncertainties and a turnover-dependent defense, makes surpassing 8.5 wins unlikely. Data and scheduling suggest Pittsburgh will struggle to replicate last season’s success.

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College Betting | NCAAF Texas Tech Win Total Prediction | June 17 2025

TexasTechWinTotal

ASAwins Betting Summary: Texas Tech Red Raiders Over 8.5 Wins for 2025 Season

Case for the Over (9+ Wins): Texas Tech is poised to exceed 8.5 wins in 2025, building on an 8-5 record in 2024 and leveraging a combination of returning talent, a transformative transfer portal haul, and a favorable schedule. The Red Raiders’ aggressive offseason moves, particularly on defense, address critical weaknesses, while their high-powered offense remains a strength, making the over an attractive futures bet.

Offensive Strengths:

Returning Starters: Texas Tech returns eight offensive starters, including senior quarterback Behren Morton, who threw for 3,335 yards and 27 touchdowns in 2024, despite shoulder issues. Morton’s experience in the Air Raid offense, where he started all 12 games, ensures continuity and growth. Key returners like wide receivers Coy Eakin and Caleb Douglas (combined for over 100 catches) and a veteran offensive line anchor the unit.

2024 Offensive Stats: The Red Raiders ranked 9th nationally in total yards per game (462 YPG), 9th in passing yards per game (294.3 YPG), 61st in rushing (167.7 YPG), and 4th in scoring (37.6 PPG). This explosive offense, led by Morton, should maintain its elite production, especially with a favorable non-conference schedule (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State) and only one 2024 bowl team before October.

Transfer Additions: The offense was bolstered by transfers like wide receiver Roy Alexander (100 catches at Incarnate Word) and USC running back Quinten Joyner, adding depth and playmaking. Offensive line transfers like Jalen Sampson (Houston, 6-8, 325 lbs) and Will Jados (Miami-Ohio, 38 career starts) address 2024’s pass protection issues (52 pressures allowed by the left side). These additions bridge gaps until younger linemen develop, ensuring Morton has time to operate.

Defensive Improvements:

2024 Defensive Struggles: Last season, Texas Tech’s defense was a liability, ranking 126th out of 133 FBS teams in total defense (460 YPG) and allowing 34.8 PPG, with a particularly weak pass defense (308 YPG, worst among Power 4 teams). This was a key factor in their 5-losses a year ago, as the offense couldn’t outscore every opponent.

Transfer Portal Dominance: Texas Tech secured the nation’s top-ranked transfer portal class, with a heavy focus on defensive upgrades. They added five defensive backs and four defensive linemen/edge rushers, including high-impact players like edge rusher David Bailey (Stanford, 14.5 career sacks), Romello Height (Georgia Tech), Lee Hunter (UCF, 69 tackles in 2023), and Skyler Gill-Howard (Northern Illinois). PFF rated Tech’s defensive line among the top 10 most impactful transfer units, projecting starters like Hunter and Gill-Howard to transform the front.

New Coordinator: Defensive coordinator Shiel Wood, hired from Houston, brings a proven scheme that ranked top-40 in scoring defense and limited big plays (only 37 scrimmage plays of 20+ yards allowed). With eight returning defensive starters, including linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts (42 combined starts, 325 tackles), and these transfers, the defense is expected to significantly improve, potentially flirting with league-average performance.

Schedule and Intangibles:

Favorable Schedule: Texas Tech’s 2025 slate starts with three winnable home games (Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kent State, Oregon State), providing early momentum. Two open dates (Sept. 27 and Nov. 22) offer rest and preparation before tough road games at Utah, Houston, Colorado, Kansas State, and West Virginia. Only one opponent through October was a 2024 bowl team, easing early integration of transfers.

Program Momentum: Coach Joey McGuire’s aggressive approach, backed by a $10+ million investment in transfers, signals a win-now mentality. The Matador Club’s NIL collective and early planning for the $2.8 billion House settlement ensure roster stability.

Risks to Consider:

Defensive Integration: While the transfer additions are elite, integrating 17 new players (21 total transfers) could lead to early chemistry issues, especially with a new defensive coordinator. The defense must improve from its 2024 basement ranking to at least mediocre to support the offense.

Morton’s Health: Morton’s shoulder surgery (December 2024) means he’ll miss spring practice, though he’s expected to be cleared by May. Any setbacks could force reliance on backups like Will Hammond or Mitch Griffis, potentially disrupting offensive rhythm.

Betting Recommendation: The over 8.5 wins (+115) is a strong value bet. Texas Tech’s elite offense (4th in scoring, 9th in total yards) returns nearly intact, with Morton and key weapons ensuring 37+ PPG potential. The defense, previously a liability at 460 YPG and 34.8 PPG, has been overhauled with top-tier transfers like Bailey, Hunter, and Height, plus a proven coordinator in Wood. A soft early schedule and two open dates set up 9-10 wins. The +115 odds offer a favorable payout for a team with Playoff buzz and a realistic shot at a Big 12 title push.

Final Prediction: Texas Tech finishes 9-3 or 10-2.

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CFL Free Bet | BC Lions vs Winnipeg Blue Bombers | June 12 2025

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ASAwins CFL play on UNDER 49.5 BC Lions at Winnipeg Blue Bombers, 8:30pm ET

We are betting UNDER in this game with our model projecting 44.7 total points as the O/U. BC has a game under their belt after 31-14 win over Edmonton last week. The Lions exploded for 28-points in the second half after putting up just 3-points at the break.

This week it’s going to be much tougher for the Lions and QB Rourke to move the ball and put up points against a Blue Bombers defense that allowed 20.3ppg in 2024, the lowest number in the CFL. Winnipeg gave up the fewest yards per game at 329.7 a year ago and are projected to be just as good on that side of the football in 2025.

The Blue Bombers will be without their starting QB Zac Collaros in the opener who is suspended for this game. Collaros led the CFL with 420 completions, 5,451 passing yards and 32 TD’s in 2024. That means the BB’s will lean on RB Oliveira, the league MOP in 2024, to carry the load offensively.

BC is solid defensively as they showed last week allowing just 14-points to Edmonton, who averaged 28ppg in 2024. The Lions allowed the 3rd fewest YPG last season and PPG at 24.4ppg.

In the three meetings last season these two teams produced 50-points, then 25 and 31. We like the trend of the two most recent meetings to continue and will be on the UNDER here!

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WNBA Free Bet | Sun vs Mystic | June 8th 2025

ASA WNBA play on Washington Mystics -7 vs. Connecticut Sun, 3pm ET

The Mystic have already beaten the Sun by 5-points in Connecticut, and we predict a much bigger margin this time around in Washington. The Mystic are getting healthy with the returns of Austin and Edwards, and with a couple days off after a loss to the Liberty, have had time to jell with the new additions. Shooting is going to be the biggest separator in this game as the Sun are 12th in team FG% at 41% overall and 12th in 3PT% at 28.8%. Making shots Sunday will be especially tough against this Mystics D that is 2nd in the WNBA in both FG% and 3PT% defense. Washington is average in terms of shooting themselves, but they face a Sun team that is last in FG% defense and 12th in 3PT% defense. The Mystic will enjoy a massive advantage on the board also with the 3rd best rebound percentage in the W compared to the Sun who rank 11th. Just 1 win separates these two teams, but the Sun are statistically far worse with a Net Rating of -19.6 compared to Washington at -5.2. We are very comfortable laying the 7-points in this one.

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2025 NBA Finals Betting Preview: Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Will Win in 5 Games (+230) Over the Indiana Pacers

OKCthundernba

ASA’s 2025 NBA Finals Betting Preview: Why the Oklahoma City Thunder Will Win in 5 Games (+230) Over the Indiana Pacers

As the 2025 NBA Finals tip off on June 5, the Oklahoma City Thunder face the Indiana Pacers in a matchup that pits the league’s most dominant team against a scrappy, high-octane underdog. The Thunder, who posted a historic 68-14 regular season, are heavy favorites to claim their first NBA championship since the franchise’s Seattle SuperSonics days in 1979. One intriguing betting opportunity stands out: the Thunder to win the series in five games at +230 odds. This article dives into the statistical case for OKC’s dominance, highlighting their regular-season performance, key metrics, and why they’re poised to dispatch the Pacers efficiently.

Thunder’s Regular-Season Dominance: A Statistical Powerhouse

The Oklahoma City Thunder were a juggernaut in the 2024-25 regular season, finishing with 68 wins, the seventh team in NBA history to reach that mark. Their dominance was particularly evident in their ability to win games decisively, with 54 of their victories coming by double digits—a testament to their ability to overwhelm opponents. Their average margin of victory (MOV) of +12.2 points per game set a historical standard, reflecting a team that not only wins but does so convincingly. This is a stark contrast to the Pacers, who managed a respectable 50-32 record but posted a modest +2.2 PPG MOV, suggesting closer games and less consistent dominance.

On the road, the Thunder were nearly unstoppable, going 36-11 straight-up (SU) with an average MOV of +7.9 PPG. This road prowess is critical in a 2-2-1-1-1 Finals format, where OKC will need to steal at least one game in Indianapolis. Their ability to maintain a high MOV away from home signals a team that doesn’t falter under pressure, a trait that bodes well for a short series.

Defensive and Offensive Efficiency: OKC’s Elite Two-Way Play

The Thunder’s success is anchored by their elite two-way play, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency (1.075 points allowed per possessions) and 3rd in offensive efficiency (1.204PPP) during the regular season. Their playoff defensive efficiency remained stellar at 1.062, showcasing their ability to clamp down on opponents even in playoff games. OKC’s defense is a turnover-forcing machine, averaging 18.0 turnovers forced per game in the playoffs, converting those into 23.8 points per game. This disruptive style, led by All-Defensive talents like Jalen Williams, Luguentz Dort, and Alex Caruso, plus rim protection from Chet Holmgren (2.0 blocks per game), makes OKC a nightmare for opposing offenses.

In contrast, the Pacers ranked 9th in offensive efficiency and a middling 13th in defensive efficiency during the regular season. While Indiana’s playoff offense has been electric—posting a 118.1 offensive efficiency rating, second only to the Cleveland Cavaliers—their defensive efficiency rating of 113.9 exposes vulnerabilities against a team like OKC, which thrives in chaos and transition. The Pacers’ fast-paced style (98.4 pace) plays into the Thunder’s hands, as OKC’s 100.6 pace and league-leading transition defense (allowing just 9.1 transition points per game) neutralize Indiana’s preferred track-meet tempo.

Head-to-Head Matchups: Thunder’s Regular-Season Sweep

The Thunder swept the Pacers in their two regular-season meetings. On December 26 in Indianapolis, OKC overcame a 15-point deficit to win 120-114, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander dropping 45 points on 15-of-22 shooting. The March 29 rematch in Oklahoma City was a rout, with the Thunder cruising to a 132-111 victory, fueled by 17 three-pointers (47.2% from deep) and 58 points in the paint. These games highlighted OKC’s ability to exploit Indiana’s defensive weaknesses, particularly in transition and perimeter defense, where the Pacers allowed opponents to shoot 34% from three in the regular season compared to OKC’s league-leading 33% in the playoffs.

Key Matchups and X-Factors

The Finals hinge on the battle between Indiana’s high-powered offense, led by Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam, and OKC’s suffocating defense. Haliburton struggled mightily against the Thunder in the regular season, scoring just 4 points in the first meeting and 18 in the second, with usage rates well below his 21.6% season average. OKC’s strategy of deploying Dort and Cason Wallace to shadow Haliburton disrupted his rhythm, forcing the ball out of his hands. With Indiana’s offense relying on Haliburton’s playmaking (2.2 assist-to-turnover ratio in the playoffs), OKC’s ability to limit him could cripple the Pacers’ attack.

On the other end, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the 2024-25 MVP, is a matchup nightmare. Averaging 32.7 PPG on 52/38/90 shooting splits in the regular season and 29.8 PPG in the playoffs, SGA’s ability to draw fouls (7.9 points per game at the free-throw line) exploits Indiana’s weakness in opponent free-throw rate (15th among playoff teams). Andrew Nembhard, tasked with guarding SGA, allowed 27 points on 11-of-18 shooting in their regular-season matchups, suggesting the Pacers lack an answer for OKC’s superstar.

The rebounding battle also favors OKC. Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein are double-digit rebound threats, while Indiana’s Myles Turner averages a modest 5.8 rebounds per game in the playoffs. The Thunder’s ability to control the glass and limit second-chance opportunities could further tilt the possession battle, where OKC led the league with a +435 turnover differential in the regular season.

Why Thunder in 5 (+230) Makes Sense

The +230 odds for the Thunder to win in five games reflect a series where OKC’s dominance is expected but not guaranteed to be a sweep. The Pacers’ potent offense and home-court resilience (they went 4-2 at home in the Eastern Conference playoffs) suggest they could steal one game, likely in Game 3 or 4 in Indianapolis

Betting Recommendation

The Thunder’s historic regular-season performance, elite two-way efficiency, and head-to-head success against the Pacers make them the clear favorites. Their ability to win big (54 double-digit victories, +12.2 MOV) and perform on the road (+7.9 MOV) supports a quick series. At +230, betting on OKC to win in five games offers value, balancing their dominance with the likelihood of Indiana stealing one game at home.

Pick: Thunder to Win NBA Finals in 5 Games (+230)

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